Development and Evaluation of High Resolution Simulation Tools to Improve Fire Weather Forecasts

Fire weather forecasts rely on numerical weather simulations where the grid size is 4 km x 4 km or larger. In areas of complex terrain, this model resolution will not capture the details of wind flows associated with complicated topography. Wind channeling in valleys, wind speed-up over mountains and ridges, and enhanced turbulence associated with rough terrain and tall forest canopies are poorly represented in current weather model applications. A number of numerical wind flow models have been developed for simulating winds at high resolution; however, there are limited observational data available at the spatial scales appropriate for evaluating these types of models. In response to this need for high resolution validation data, we collected wind measurements at very high spatial resolution over a range of meteorological conditions from three different types of terrain/landcover features: an isolated mountain covered predominantly by grass and sagebrush, a steep river canyon covered predominantly by grass, and a dissected montane drainage with a tall forest canopy. We used data from the isolated mountain and the steep river canyon to evaluate surface wind predictions from routine weather forecasts and a high resolution wind simulation model, WindNinja, developed specifically for fire behavior applications. Data from the third field site will be used for future model evaluations planned to investigate the effect of tall forest canopies on surface wind predictions. Analyses of observations from the isolated mountain and steep river canyon sites indicate that operational weather model (i.e., with numerical grid resolutions of around 4 km or larger) wind predictions are not likely to be good predictors of local near-surface winds (i.e., at sub-grid scales) in complex terrain. Under periods of weak synoptic forcing, surface winds tended to be decoupled from large-scale flows, and under periods of strong synoptic forcing, variability in surface winds was sufficiently large due to terrain-induced mechanical effects that a large-scale mean flow would not be representative of surface winds at most locations on or within the terrain feature. These findings are reported in a manuscript titled “High Resolution Observations of the Near-Surface Wind Field over an Isolated Mountain and in a Steep River Canyon” submitted for publication in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. Links to the observed data from this effort as well as an online interface to query, visualize, summarize, and download subsets of the data are available at: http://www.firemodels.org/index.php/windninja-introduction/windninja-publications. Findings from the model evaluations work indicate that using WindNinja to downscale from numerical weather prediction (NWP) model winds can, in some cases, improve the accuracy of surface wind forecasts in complex terrain. Predictions of surface wind speeds and directions improved with downscaling via WindNinja when flow features induced by large scale effects were adequately captured by the NWP model used to initialize WindNinja. This suggests that WindNinja could be incorporated into current fire forecast methods to provide better short-term forecasts for fire management operations. These findings are reported in a manuscript titled “Downscaling Surface Wind Predictions from Numerical Weather Prediction Models in Complex Terrain with a Mass-consistent Wind Model” that will be submitted to the Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology later this spring

Development and Evaluation of High Resolution Simulation Tools to Improve Fire Weather Forecasts

Fire weather forecasts rely on numerical weather simulations where the grid size is 4 km x 4 km or larger. In areas of complex terrain, this model resolution will not capture the details of wind flows associated with complicated topography. Wind channeling in valleys, wind speed-up over mountains and ridges, and enhanced turbulence associated with rough terrain and tall forest canopies are poorly represented in current weather model applications. A number of numerical wind flow models have been developed for simulating winds at high resolution; however, there are limited observational data available at the spatial scales appropriate for evaluating these types of models. In response to this need for high resolution validation data, we collected wind measurements at very high spatial resolution over a range of meteorological conditions from three different types of terrain/landcover features: an isolated mountain covered predominantly by grass and sagebrush, a steep river canyon covered predominantly by grass, and a dissected montane drainage with a tall forest canopy. We used data from the isolated mountain and the steep river canyon to evaluate surface wind predictions from routine weather forecasts and a high resolution wind simulation model, WindNinja, developed specifically for fire behavior applications. Data from the third field site will be used for future model evaluations planned to investigate the effect of tall forest canopies on surface wind predictions. Analyses of observations from the isolated mountain and steep river canyon sites indicate that operational weather model (i.e., with numerical grid resolutions of around 4 km or larger) wind predictions are not likely to be good predictors of local near-surface winds (i.e., at sub-grid scales) in complex terrain. Under periods of weak synoptic forcing, surface winds tended to be decoupled from large-scale flows, and under periods of strong synoptic forcing, variability in surface winds was sufficiently large due to terrain-induced mechanical effects that a large-scale mean flow would not be representative of surface winds at most locations on or within the terrain feature. These findings are reported in a manuscript titled “High Resolution Observations of the Near-Surface Wind Field over an Isolated Mountain and in a Steep River Canyon” submitted for publication in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. Links to the observed data from this effort as well as an online interface to query, visualize, summarize, and download subsets of the data are available at: http://www.firemodels.org/index.php/windninja-introduction/windninja-publications. Findings from the model evaluations work indicate that using WindNinja to downscale from numerical weather prediction (NWP) model winds can, in some cases, improve the accuracy of surface wind forecasts in complex terrain. Predictions of surface wind speeds and directions improved with downscaling via WindNinja when flow features induced by large scale effects were adequately captured by the NWP model used to initialize WindNinja. This suggests that WindNinja could be incorporated into current fire forecast methods to provide better short-term forecasts for fire management operations. These findings are reported in a manuscript titled “Downscaling Surface Wind Predictions from Numerical Weather Prediction Models in Complex Terrain with a Mass-consistent Wind Model” that will be submitted to the Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology later this spring

Plume Dispersion in Four Pine Thinning Scenarios: Development of a Simple Pheromone Dispersion Model

A unique field campaign was conducted in 2004 to examine how changes in stand density may affect dispersion of insect pheromones in forest canopies. Over a 14-day period, 126 tracer tests were performed, and conditions ranged from an unthinned loblolly pine (Pinus taeda) canopy through a series of thinning scenarios with basal areas of 32.1, 23.0, and 16.1 m2ha-1. In this paper, one case study was used to visualize the nature of winds and plume diffusion. Also, a simple empirical model was developed to estimate maximum average concentration as a function of downwind distance, travel time, wind speed, and turbulence statistics at the source location. Predicted concentrations from the model were within a factor of 3 for 82.1 percent and 88.1 percent of the observed concentrations at downwind distances of 5 and 10 m, respectively. In addition, the model was used to generate a field chart to predict optimum spacing in arrays of anti-aggregation pheromone dispensers

A Tracer Investigation of Pheromone Dispersion in Lodgepole and Ponderosa Pine Forest Canopies

Tracer experiments were conducted in 2000 and 2001 to study spread of insect pheromone plumes in forest canopies. The field sites consisted of lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) and ponderosa pine (P. ponderosa) canopies in 2000 and 2001, respectively. Ranges of temperature, wind speed, and turbulence conditions were similar in the two campaigns, and field data showed comparable variability on near-instantaneous time scales of wind speed, wind direction, and plume behavior. We developed simple empirical equations to estimate average horizontal and vertical plume spread as functions of standard turbulence statistics, downwind distance from the source, and wind speed. For horizontal plume spread, predicted dispersion coefficients were within a factor of 3, or better, for 97 percent of the observed values in the combined dataset from 2000 and 2001. Likewise, 99 percent of the predicted vertical dispersion coefficients were within a factor of 3 of the observed data

Sagittarius Tidal Debris 90 kpc from the Galactic Center

A new overdensity of A-colored stars in distant parts of the Milky Way's stellar halo, at a dereddened SDSS magnitude of g_0 = 20.3, is presented. Identification of associated variable RR Lyrae candidates supports the claim that these are blue horizontal branch stars. The inferred distance of these stars from the Galactic center is 90 kpc, assuming the absolute magnitude of these stars is M_g_0 = 0.7 and that the Sun is 8.5 kpc from the Galactic center. The new tidal debris is within 10 kpc of same plane as other confirmed tidal debris from the disruption of the Sagittarius dwarf galaxy, and could be associated with the trailing tidal arm. Distances to the Sagittarius stream estimated from M stars are about 13% smaller than our inferred distances. The tidal debris has a width of at least 10 degrees, and is traced for more than 20 degrees across the sky. The globular cluster NGC 2419 is located within the detected tidal debris, and may also have once been associated with the Sagittarius dwarf galaxy.Comment: 4 figures, ApJL in pres

Discovery of KiloHertz Quasi-Periodic Oscillations in the Z source Cygnus X-2

During observations with RXTE we discovered two simultaneous kHz QPOs near 500 Hz and 860 Hz in the Z source Cyg X-2. In the X-ray color-color diagram and hardness-intensity diagram (HID) a clear Z track was traced out. A single kHz QPO peak was detected at the left end of the horizontal branch (HB) of the Z track, with a frequency of 731+/-20 Hz and an amplitude of 4.7+0.8-0.6 % rms in the energy band 5.0-60 keV. Further to the right on the HB, at somewhat higher count rates, an additional peak at 532+/-43 Hz was detected with an rms amplitude of 3.0+1.0-0.7 %. When the source moved down the HB, thus when the inferred mass accretion rate increased, the frequency of the higher-frequency QPO increased to 839+/-13 Hz, and its amplitude decreased to 3.5+0.4-0.3 % rms. The higher-frequency QPO was also detected on the upper normal branch (NB) with an rms amplitude of 1.8+0.6-0.4 % and a frequency of 1007+/-15 Hz; its peak width did not show a clear correlation with inferred mass accretion rate. The lower-frequency QPO was most of the time undetectable, with typical upper limits of 2 % rms, no conclusion on how this QPO behaved with mass accretion rate can be drawn. If the peak separation between the QPOs is the neutron star spin frequency (as required in some beat-frequency models) then the neutron star spin period is 2.9+/-0.2 ms (346+/-29 Hz).Comment: 10 pages, including 3 figures. Accepted for publication in ApJ Letter

Modeling and Measuring the Nocturnal Drainage Flow in a High-Elevation, Subalpine Forest with Complex Terrain

The nocturnal drainage flow of air causes significant uncertainty in ecosystem CO2, H2O, and energy budgets determined with the eddy covariance measurement approach. In this study, we examined the magnitude, nature, and dynamics of the nocturnal drainage flow in a subalpine forest ecosystem with complex terrain. We used an experimental approach involving four towers, each with vertical profiling of wind speed to measure the magnitude of drainage flows and dynamics in their occurrence. We developed an analytical drainage flow model, constrained with measurements of canopy structure and SF6 diffusion, to help us interpret the tower profile results. Model predictions were in good agreement with observed profiles of wind speed, leaf area density, and wind drag coefficient. Using theory, we showed that this one‐dimensional model is reduced to the widely used exponential wind profile model under conditions where vertical leaf area density and drag coefficient are uniformly distributed. We used the model for stability analysis, which predicted the presence of a very stable layer near the height of maximum leaf area density. This stable layer acts as a flow impediment, minimizing vertical dispersion between the subcanopy air space and the atmosphere above the canopy. The prediction is consistent with the results of SF6 diffusion observations that showed minimal vertical dispersion of nighttime, subcanopy drainage flows. The stable within‐canopy air layer coincided with the height of maximum wake‐to‐shear production ratio. We concluded that nighttime drainage flows are restricted to a relatively shallow layer of air beneath the canopy, with little vertical mixing across a relatively long horizontal fetch. Insight into the horizontal and vertical structure of the drainage flow is crucial for understanding the magnitude and dynamics of the mean advective CO2 flux that becomes significant during stable nighttime conditions and are typically missed during measurement of the turbulent CO2 flux. The model and interpretation provided in this study should lead to research strategies for the measurement of these advective fluxes and their inclusion in the overall mass balance for CO2 at this site with complex terrain

Discovery of KiloHertz Quasi-Periodic Oscillations in 4U 1735-44

We discovered a single kHz quasi-periodic oscillation (QPO) near 1150 Hz in the Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer X-ray light curve of the low mass X-ray binary and atoll source 4U 1735-44. The rms amplitude of this peak was 2-3%, and the FWHM 6-40 Hz. There are indications that the kHz QPO frequency decreased from 1160 Hz to 1145 Hz when the count rate increased, which would be quite different from what is observed in other atoll sources for which kHz QPOs have been discovered. In the X-ray color-color diagram and hardness-intensity diagram the source traced out the curved branch (the so-called banana branch) which has been found by previous instruments. The kHz QPO was only detected when the source was at the lowest count rates during our observations, i.e. on the lower part of the banana branch. When 4U 1735-44 was at higher count rates, i.e. on the upper part of the banana branch and at higher inferred mass accretion rate with respect to that on the lower part of the banana branch, the QPO was not detected. Besides the kHz QPO we discovered a low frequency QPO with a frequency near 67 Hz, together with a complex broad peaked noise component below 30 Hz. This 67 Hz QPO may be related to the magnetospheric beat-frequency QPO, which is observed on the horizontal branch of Z sources. This idea is supported by the (peaked) noise found in both 4U 1735-44 and Z sources at frequencies just below the QPO frequency.Comment: 9 pages, including 2 figures. Accepted for publication in ApJ Letter