Predicting metapopulation responses to conservation in human-dominated landscapes

Loss of habitat to urbanization is a primary cause of population declines as human-dominated landscapes expand at increasing rates. Understanding how the relative effects of different conservation strategies is important to slow population declines for species in urban landscapes. We studied the wood thrush Hylocichla mustelina, a declining forest-breeding Neotropical migratory species, and umbrella species for forest-breeding songbirds, within the urbanized mid-Atlantic United States. We integrated 40 years of demographic data with contemporary metapopulation model simulations of breeding wood thrushes to predict population responses to differing conservation scenarios. We compared four conservation scenarios over a 30-year time period (2014-2044) representing (A) current observed state (Null), (B) replacing impervious surface with forest (Reforest), (C) reducing brown-headed cowbird Molothrus ater parasitism pressure (Cowbird removal), and (D) simultaneous reforesting and cowbird removal. Compared to the Null scenario, the Reforest scenario increased mean annual population trends by 54%, the Remove cowbirds scenario increased mean annual population trends by 38%, and the scenario combining reforestation and cowbird removal increased mean annual population trends by 98%. Mean annual growth rates (lambda) per site were greater in the Reforest (lambda = 0.94) and Remove cowbirds (lambda = 0.92) compared to the Null (lambda = 0.88) model scenarios. However, only by combining the positive effects of reforestation and cowbird removal did wood thrush populations stop declining (lambda = 1.00). Our results suggest that independently replacing impervious surface with forest habitat around forest patches and removing cowbirds may slow current negative population trends. Furthermore, conservation efforts that combine reforestation and cowbird removal may potentially benefit populations of wood thrushes and other similarly forest-breeding songbird species within urbanized fragmented landscapes that typify the mid-Atlantic United States

Detection of local-scale population declines through optimized tidal marsh bird monitoring design

Evaluating the efficacy of monitoring designs is crucial for the successful monitoring and conservation of populations. For tidal marsh bird species of conservation concern, detecting population declines at local spatial scales within actionable time frames is a top priority. We examined and compared the effectiveness of alternative monitoring strategies for detecting local-scale population declines using count data from 1176 spatially-independent salt marsh sampling points throughout the northeastern United States (Maine to Virginia). We used abundance estimates that accounted for imperfect detection as initial conditions to simulate annual population declines of 5%, 10%, 30%, and 50% over a 5-year sampling period. Under an optimal monitoring design with biennial sampling, we were able to successfully detect annual population declines of ≥30% for each species and for all species combined. However, this required a minimum of 15–20 points per site being sampled. Power to detect declines, although low for detecting smaller annual declines (i.e., \u3c10%), improved substantially when points were visited twice per season, yet a third visit provided a reduced benefit. When testing factors that could potentially influence power to detect declines, we found that the power within sites was positively related to species abundance. Power was similar between biennial sampling (3 of 5 years) and annual sampling (5 of 5 years), suggesting a more cost-effective approach would be to sample every other year. We found that within most sites, detecting annual declines of 10% or less over a relatively short 5-year duration would be difficult. Hence, we recommend that salt marsh bird monitoring programs in the northeastern United States conduct two visits to each site per sampling year, include 15 or more sampling points per site (without confounding spatial independence), and conduct monitoring efforts every other year. This approach will maximize the efficacy of site-level monitoring of tidal marsh birds, which can aid in assessments of coastal wetland conservation and related habitat management efforts

Bioenergetics and food use of wintering and staging Atlantic brant

Williams, Christopher K.I conducted behavioral and food sampling of Atlantic brant (Branta bernicla hrota) across their winter range on the northeastern coast of the USA. I used time-activity budgets to estimate daily energy expenditure (DEE) of brant. Sampling occurred 1 Dec -- 31 May 2006???2008 in eleven 225 km2 sites between Rhode Island and Virginia containing important estuarine and upland habitat. Overall DEE for brant was 1,530??64 kJ/day. There was considerable variation in time-activity budgets between years, months, regions, habitat, tide, temperature, and time-of-day, and I detected no significant difference in DEE of brant between years or regions. However, DEE was significantly different between months and ranged from 2,018??173 kJ/day in January to 1,048??137 kJ/day in May. Brant spent most of their time feeding (32%), swimming (26%), resting (16%), and flying (15%). I also quantified diet of brant and energy density of food plants. Brant mostly ate macroalgae (Ulva sp., Enteromorpha sp.) in early-mid winter and salt marsh cordgrass (Spartina alterniflora) and upland grass and clover (Poa sp. and Trifollium sp.) in late winter and spring. Energy density differed by vegetation type: macroalgae (12.6??0.1 kJ/g), eelgrass (Zostera marina) (14.1??0.1 kJ/g), salt marsh cordgrass (16.9??0.2 kJ/g), and upland grass and clover (17.7??0.1 kJ/g). I explored variation in the diet of brant between 1 November ??? 31 May 2007-2008. I determined dietary trends using stable ??13C and ??15N isotopes in four known food sources that brant eat. I predicted relative contributions from food sources would differ between months as food source availability shifted over time. I sampled liver and leg muscle tissues from 525 individuals over a seven month winter period in four geographic regions. I measured ??13C and ??15N in each of the tissues and food sources collected within each region. I detected significant differences between regional and monthly ??13C and ??15N ratios in both liver and leg tissues. Dietary trends were determined using Bayesian mixing-models to estimate relative contributions of food sources with the software package SIAR. I detected variation between regions and months in brant tissues and diet, reflecting population level responses to variation in food resource availability over the winter range.University of Delaware, Department of Entomology and Wildlife EcologyM.S

Time energy budgets and food use of Atlantic brant across their wintering range

We conducted extensive behavioral and food sampling of Atlantic brant (Branta bernicla hrota) across their winter range and used time-activity budgets for brant to determine daily energy expenditure (DEE). Sampling occurred 1 December-31 May 2006-2008 in 11,225-km2 sites between Rhode Island and Virginia containing important estuarine and upland habitat. To calculate DEE we used instantaneous scan sampling to estimate time-activity budgets. We also determined foods eaten by brant and energy density of food plants. Last, we quantified body condition of brant, which differed among years, months, regions, and ages, and sexes. Overall DEE for brant was 1,530 ± 64 kJ/day. There was considerable variation in time-activity budgets among years, months, regions, habitat, tide, temperature, and time-of-day, but we detected no significant difference in DEE of brant between years or among regions. However, DEE in January (2,018 ± 173 kJ/day) was nearly double the DEE of brant in May (1,048 ± 137 kJ/day). Brant spent their time feeding (32.3%), swimming (26.2%), resting (16.2%), and flying (14.5%). The percent of brant foreguts sampled contained macroalgae (53%) eelgrass (Zostera marina; 18%), salt marsh cordgrass (Spartina alterniflora; 17%), and terrestrial grass (Poa. sp.) and clover (Trifollium sp.; 9%). Energy density differed by vegetation type: macroalgae (12.6 ± 0.1 kJ/g), eelgrass (14.1 ± 0.1 kJ/g), new-growth salt marsh cordgrass (16.9 ± 0.2 kJ/g), and terrestrial grass and clover (17.7 ± 0.1 kJ/g). Atlantic brant exhibited behavioral plasticity thereby allowing modification of daily activity budgets to meet seasonally varying energetic requirements associated with wintering and spring staging. Recognizing a variable DEE can be used along with eventual estimates of food biomass and total metabolizable energy on the landscape to calculate carrying capacity (goose use days) on state, region, or range-wide scales. © 2011 The Wildlife Society

Human-mediated dispersal drives the spread of the spotted lanternfly (Lycorma delicatula)

Abstract The spotted lanternfly (Lycorma delicatula) is a novel invasive insect from Asia now established and spreading throughout the United States. This species is of particular concern given its ability to decimate important crops such as grapes, fruit trees, as well as native hardwood trees. Since its initial detection in Berks County, Pennsylvania in 2014, spotted lanternfly infestations have been detected in 130 counties (87 under quarantine) within Connecticut, Delaware, Indiana, Maryland, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, Virginia, and West Virginia. Compounding this invasion is the associated proliferation and widespread distribution of the spotted lanternfly’s preferred host plant, the tree-of-heaven (Ailanthus altissima). While alternate host plant species have been observed, the tree-of-heaven which thrives in disturbed and human-dominated areas (e.g., along roads and railways) is likely facilitating the population growth rates of spotted lanternfly. We simulated the population and spread dynamics of the spotted lanternfly throughout the mid-Atlantic USA to help determine areas of risk and inform continued monitoring and control efforts. We tested the prediction that spotted lanternfly spread is driven by human-mediated dispersal using agent-based models that incorporated information on its life-history traits, habitat suitability, and movement and natural dispersal behavior. Overwhelmingly, our results suggest that human-mediated dispersal (e.g., cars, trucks, and trains) is driving the observed spread dynamics and distribution of the spotted lanternfly throughout the eastern USA. Our findings should encourage future surveys to focus on human-mediated dispersal of egg masses and adult spotted lanternflies (e.g., attachment to car or transported substrates) to better monitor and control this economically and ecologically important invasive species

Long-term dynamics in local host-parasite interactions linked to regional population trends

Publisher's PDFTemporal changes in the relative abundances of host-parasite populations can influence the magnitude of the effects of corresponding interspecific interactions. When parasite populations are at relatively low abundance, the negative effects on host populations may be insignificant, but when parasite abundance increases beyond critical thresholds, they can have population limiting effects on the host. Here, we used data from a 40-yr demographic study on breeding Wood Thrushes (Hylocichla mustelina) and avian brood parasitic Brown-headed Cowbirds (Molothrus ater) in the mid-Atlantic United States to disentangle host-parasite interactions. The relative abundance for these two species has changed both locally and regionally over this time period with a reduction in host abundance coincident with an increase in the parasite population. We detected a fivefold increase in Brown-headed Cowbird parasitism rates of Wood Thrushes over the 40-yr time period leading to a reduction in Wood Thrush fitness (i.e.,adult survival, fecundity, and recruitment). After accounting for the effects of Wood Thrush age, individual, and annual and within-season variation in reproduction, we found that Wood Thrushes exhibited increased reproductive effort (produced more nests per year) as nest parasitism rates increased. Additionally, we found that as parasitism rates increased, both Wood Thrush clutch size and fecundity declined. In conjunction with widespread habitat loss and land use change on both wintering and breeding ranges, increasing rates of Brown-headed Cowbird parasitism are reducing Wood Thrush fitness, and are likely contributing to observed regional Wood Thrush population declines. Coordinated local and regional efforts to reduce Brown-headed Cowbird populations, particularly in fragmented landscapes, may help reduce the decline for Wood Thrushes, and likely other parasitized Neotropical migratory species.Department of Entomology and Wildlife Ecolog

Regional and intraseasonal variation in diet of wintering and staging Atlantic brant

Regional and intraseasonal patterns of food use influence populations through impacts on breeding success, survival, and distribution of individuals. We used both traditional foregut content analysis and stable carbon and nitrogen isotopes in liver and leg muscle to determine intraseasonal patterns in the diet of Atlantic brant geese (Branta bernicla hrota) from early winter through spring staging (1 Dec-31 May 2007-2008) along the mid-Atlantic coast of the United States. Overall, brant diet consisted of macroalgae (52%), salt marsh cordgrass (22%), eelgrass (18%), and terrestrial grass and clover (8%). Mean δ13C and δ15N values differed among these 4 food sources. Therefore, we used an isotope mixing-model (SIAR) to estimate the relative contributions of each source to brant diet among regions and months. Wintering brant in northern and southern regions ate mostly macroalgae throughout the wintering period and ate more salt marsh and terrestrial grasses in spring. Brant in central regions had a more stable diet from December to May. Regional and intraseasonal patterns in brant diet are likely affected by several factors including variation in food source availability and quality due to synergistic effects of long-term annual and intraseasonal changes in abundance of submerged aquatic vegetation. Our estimates of diet combined with information on brant daily energy requirements and forage quality can be used to more accurately determine carrying capacity of wintering brant geese given established population objectives