Modélisation pluie-débit à l’échelle annuelle en Algérie du nord

La modélisation du comportement hydrologique des bassins versants est incontournable dès lors que l'on s'intéresse à des problématiques relatives à l’évaluation et la gestion optimale des ressources en eau. Ceci s’illustre par un aspect quantitatif, dans les pays comme l’Algérie où l’alimentation en eau est un facteur limitant. L’objectif principal de cet article est d’expliciter les relations entre les conditions hydrologiques et la disponibilité en eau de surface. A cet effet, un modèle pluie-débit à l’échelle annuelle qui prend en compte les paramètres physiques et climatiques a été mis au point. L’application porte sur l’Algérie du Nord dont la superficie est de 325 000 km2.La mise au point de ce modèle nécessite au préalable une base de données qui a été acquise lors des travaux antérieurs incluant la carte des pluies médianes, la carte des perméabilités et le modèle numérique de terrain. Afin de compléter cette base de données, la cartographie des pluies des différentes années pour lesquelles on dispose des débits a été réalisée en utilisant une méthodologie intitulée "cartographie de la pluie centrée réduite". Ainsi, les données de 467 postes pluviométriques ont été traitées et ont permis de tracer les cartes des isohyètes annuelles.L’étude de la relation pluie-débit à l’échelle annuelle est basée sur les données de débits de 50 stations hydrométriques réparties à travers la zone d’étude. La démarche utilisée s’est inspirée de la fonction de production du S.C.S (Soil Conservation Service). Les résultats du modèle après calage ont permis d’obtenir un coefficient d’explication de 0,75, ce qui signifie que 75 % de la variance est expliquée par la pluie moyenne, la surface et un coefficient (a) qui correspond à la pente moyenne des bassins versants.Modelling the hydrological behaviour of drainage basins is very important for solving problems related to the evaluation and optimal management of water resources. This is illustrated quantitatively in countries such as Algeria where water supply is a limiting factor. The principal aim of this paper was to explain the relationship between hydrological conditions and the availability of surface water. A model of rainfall-discharge was developed on a yearly scale, taking into account physical and climatic parameters. The application was carried out in northern Algeria where the total land surface is about 325 000 km2.The development of this model required a database, which was acquired during previous studies where maps of median rainfall and permeability as well as the digital elevation model were developed. In order to complete this database, the cartography of rainfall for the years for which we have discharge data was carried out using a methodology entitled "mapping standardized rainfall". To estimate and map annual rainfall, the kriging method was used. Two problems were encountered:- The presence of a drift highly altered the variogram and made it very difficult to infer a sub- structure function;- The variogram is significant only if the hypothesis of ergodicity is valid, which was not easy to assume for any given year.In order to resolve these difficulties, a homogeneous random and secondary stationary order function (same mean at all points and same covariance function) must be calculated. A previous study by ANRH (1993) allowed us to know the statistical parameters of the distribution at each point. These parameters were mapped, taking into consideration the topographical relief and distance to the sea. For every year and at each rainfall measure point, the standardized rainfall could be deduced. The correlogram gave information about the spatial variability of the phenomenon and its range, and subsequently the standardized rainfall was then interpolated. Annual rainfall was calculated by combining the grids of the means, the variances and the centered reduced rainfall (TOUAZI and LABORDE, 2000). Thus, the data of 467 rainfall gauges were used in order to create maps of the yearly isohyets.The rainfall-discharge relationship on an annual scale was based on 50 hydrometric stations distributed throughout the study area. The methodology used was derived from the production function of the S.C.S (Soil Conservation Service). This production function was part of modelling, which transformed total rainfall to net rainfall. This method was very representative of the natural hydrological processes. Indeed, it takes into account rainfall and the maximum infiltration capacity (S), which depends on the nature of the soil (lithology), vegetation and soil moisture content. In the current study, the basin surface and a regional parameter (a) were introduced in order to calibrate the model. This production function was implemented by supplying different values for the parameter (S). The values (n+1) were obtained by increasing the previous value (n) by 10 %. We evaluated the different values of (S) in the same way to obtain the last value (i). We calculated for these different values of the parameter (S) the square of the difference between the measured and estimated discharges for each year by measuring the discharge at different stations. For each station, we calculated the sum of these values for all the years and we retained the value of (S) that gave the minimal value. The results demonstrated that the values of (S) obtained were not significant because they tend to the infinite. For this reason, (S) was considered as a constant. In order to improve the model, we repeated the same operation, but instead of (S), we used the parameter (a) and performed the same calculation. After calibration of the model the results gave a coefficient of determination of 0.75, which means that 75 % of the variance was explained by the mean rainfall, the surface and the parameter (a).To explain the parameter (a), we calculated the correlation between its value at each station with the corresponding geology. This latter variable was characterized by the average storage capacity, which corresponds to the weighted average of the surfaces of the basin assigned to each permeability category (TOUAZI, 2001). The results demonstrated a coefficient of determination of 0.1. The correlation with the topographical relief was not necessary because it was taken into account in the cartography of the rainfall. We then proceeded to the cartography of the parameter (a). The results demonstrated an east-west gradient that was constant and a north-south gradient that decreased from north to south. With the digital elevation model, we used a geographical information system to deduce the slopes. For each basin, the average slope was calculated by taking the average of the values of the slopes of all the pixels that constituted the individual basin. The correlation between slopes and corresponding values of the parameter (a) gave a coefficient of correlation of 0.6.The results obtained by this model after calibration gave a coefficient of determination of 0.75, which means that 75% of the variance was explained by the mean rainfall, the surface and a coefficient (a), which corresponds to the average slope of the drainage basins

Une méthode stochastique pour la prédétermination des fluctuations probables des durées de service des réservoirs collinaires en Tunisie

Un modèle de génération stochastique de pluies est couplé ˆ un modèle de calcul de l'index de leurs érosivités, dérivé de l'Equation Universelle de l'Erosion des Sols (USLE). Le premier fonctionne au pas de temps de 30mn, il est calé sur une série pluviographique de 15 ans de la Tunisie centrale. Le second modèle fonctionne par calcul automatique des cumuls et moyennes de l'érosivité des pluies générées.En mode opérationnel, ces deux modèles sont exploités pour simuler les aléas de l'envasement annuel des réservoirs collinaires de la zone aride et semi-aride de la Tunisie : le bassin versant est considéré comme une "boite noire" où l'agressivité climatique est la principale variable (quelques pluies extrêmes font l'essentiel de l'érosion), les autres facteurs sont considérés constants durant la durée de service du réservoir. Nous observons sur trois bassins versants répartis du nord au sud de la frange comprise entre 500mm et 250mm (de pluie moyenne annuelle), que la distribution annuelle des index d'érosivité des pluies peut être assimilée ˆ la distribution des transports solides.Sur l'un de ces bassins versants (OUED EL HISSIANE : 15,9 ) nous observons également que les valeurs extrêmes de l'érosion sont proportionnelles aux valeurs extrêmes de l'index d'érosivité des pluies. Seulement l'automne et le printemps sont des saisons érosives.Dans le cas de petits bassins versants non-jaugés, comme ceux pour l'aménagement de réservoirs collinaires, le générateur nous permet de constituer des chroniques d'érosivité de pluie. Si on considère que les autres paramètres sont constants, ce modèle nous aide à déterminer les intervalles de confiance de durées de service probables.Une analyse de sensibilité par la modification des paramètres du générateur (nombre d'épisodes, hauteur de pluie, maximum et durée d'averse etc ...) valide la méthodologie. De même une analyse régionale montre les faibles fluctuations des résultats sur l'étendue aride et semi-aride de la Tunisie.Ces deux résultats nous ont conduit à proposer un abaque régional de prédétermination des fluctuations probables des durées de service des réservoirs collinaires, compte tenu de la connaissance préalable de la durée de service moyenne probable.Cette méthode directement opérationnelle peut être utilisée pour l'aménagement, la planification, et la gestion des réservoirs collinaires. Elle améliore les études de faisabilité, notamment lorsqu'on la couple aux calculs économiques.A stochastic rainfall generator and a model for calculating the erosivity index of the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) are coupled. The first one operates on a 30 min time step and it is calibrated on a 15 year historical pluviographic database for central Tunisia. The second model works like an automatic calculator, where the rain erosivity index can be averaged or summed. These two models are applied to simulate the annual siltation of hill reservoirs in arid and semi-arid areas of Tunisia. The catchment is considered as a "black-box" where mostly climatic aggressivity is varying (some extreme rainfall events cause most of the erosion) and the other erosion parameters are considered to remain constant over the lifetime of the reservoir. We know that the WISCHMEIER rain erosion index has no upper limit. When all the other factors are maintained constant, erosion is proportional to it. This climatic index is calculated for each rain event, but we can also calculate the annual average or sum it over many years. Soil losses (or solid transport) during a period are proportional to the value of this index summed over the same period.We demonstrate on three representative catchments lying from north to south (from 500 mm to 250 mm annual average rainfall) that the annual rain erosion index distribution can be considered comparable to the solid transport distribution (Galton distributions with equal statistical parameters).For the OUED EL HISSIANE catchment (15.9 km2), the annual extreme value of erosion is proportional to the annual extreme value of the rain erosion index. Only spring and autumn storms need be considered to calculate the annual sediment loss.On gauged small catchments like those of hill reservoirs, the rainfall generator can provide an erosivity rainfall record. Considering that the other erosion parameters are constant, this model allows one to calculate the confidence intervals of a reservoir's predicted durations. We equate the annual erosivity index distribution to the annual solid supplies distribution, and we generate and sum over several consecutive years many series of "solid supplies" to simulate the progressive silting up of the reservoirs (represented by the chosen period : sum over T=5 years, 10 years, 15 years ...). In the context of setting up hill reservoirs, this study concerns the potential duration and possible services of hydraulic structures (including the risk of rapid silting up of the reservoirs). This generator can be computed over many years and avoids the limitation due to the short observed time series.The methodological benefit of such an approach is therefore to avoid the difficulty of limited observed samples. It enlarges the data analysis of the series dispersal and residuals. This approach, based on observations and a statistical method, supports experimental analysis. It gives a clear idea of the rate of siltation, according to climatic hazards. A sensitivity analysis, where we modify the rainfall generator parameters (number of episodes and quantity of rain, peak and duration of storm...), is used to validate the methodology. A regional analysis shows a very low fluctuation considering the whole arid and semi-arid area of Tunisia. These two results led us to set up a regional abacus. This abacus reports the forecasts of the fluctuations of the time length service for hilly and small dams, including the probable average of their service duration. It allow a predetermination of the small dams' life time together with a confidence interval, and it can be used for small dam construction, planning and management. It improves the first feasibility study and can be included in economic calculations

²¹⁰Pb- ²²⁶Ra chronology reveals rapid growth rate of Madrepora oculata and Lophelia pertusa on world's largest cold-water coral reef

Here we show the use of the 210Pb- 226Ra excess method to determine the growth rate of two corals from the world's largest known cold-water coral reef, Røst Reef, north of the Arctic circle off Norway. Colonies of each of the two species that build the reef, Lophelia pertusa and Madrepora oculata, were collected alive at 350 m depth using a submersible. Pb and Ra isotopes were measured along the major growth axis of both specimens using low level alpha and gamma spectrometry and trace element compositions were studied. 210Pb and 226Ra differ in the way they are incorporated into coral skeletons. Hence, to assess growth rates, we considered the exponential decrease of initially incorporated 210Pb, as well as the increase in 210Pb from the decay of 226Ra and contamination with 210Pb associated with Mn-Fe coatings that we were unable to remove completely from the oldest parts of the skeletons. 226Ra activity was similar in both coral species, so, assuming constant uptake of 210Pb through time, we used the 210Pb- 226Ra chronology to calculate growth rates. The 45.5 cm long branch of M. oculata was 31 yr with an average linear growth rate of 14.4 ± 1.1 mm yr -1 (2.6 polyps per year). Despite cleaning, a correction for Mn-Fe oxide contamination was required for the oldest part of the colony; this correction corroborated our radiocarbon date of 40 yr and a mean growth rate of 2 polyps yr -1. This rate is similar to the one obtained in aquarium experiments under optimal growth conditions. For the 80 cm-long L. pertusa colony, metal-oxide contamination remained in both the middle and basal part of the coral skeleton despite cleaning, inhibiting similar age and growth rate estimates. The youngest part of the colony was free of metal oxides and this 15 cm section had an estimated a growth rate of 8 mm yr -1, with high uncertainty (∼1 polyp every two to three years). We are less certain of this 210Pb growth rate estimate which is within the lowermost ranges of previous growth rate estimates. We show that 210Pb- 226Ra dating can be successfully applied to determine the age and growth rate of framework-forming cold-water corals if Mn-Fe oxide deposits can be removed. Where metal oxides can be removed, large M. oculata and L. pertusa skeletons provide archives for studies of intermediate water masses with an up to annual time resolution and spanning over many decades. © 2012 Author(s)

Genetic Complementation to Identify DNA Elements That Influence Complement Resistance in Leishmania chagasi

Past studies showed that Leishmania spp. promastigotes exhibit differential sensitivity to complement mediated lysis (CML) during development in vitro and in vivo. Leishmania chagasi promastigotes in cultures during logarithmic and stationary growth phases are CML-sensitive or CML-resistant when exposed to human serum, respectively, but only in cultures recently initiated with parasites from infected animals; serially passaged cultures become constitutively CML-sensitive regardless of growth phase. Building on these observations, a genetic screen was conducted to identify novel complement resistance factors of L. chagasi. A cosmid library containing genomic DNA was transfected into a promastigote line previously subjected to \u3e50 serial passages. Selection with human serum for CML resistance yielded 12 transfectant clones. Cosmids isolated from 7 of these clones conferred CML resistance when transfected into an independent, high-passage promastigote culture; at 12% human serum, the mean survival of transfectants was 37% (±11.6%), and that of control transfectants was about 1%. Inserts within the 7 cosmids were unique. Determination of the complete DNA sequence for 1 cosmid indicated that its 32-kilobase insert was 89% identical (overall) to a 31-kilobase region of Leishmania major chromosome 36, which is predicted to encode 6 genes, all of which encode hypothetical proteins

A predictive inline model for nonlinear stimulated Raman scattering in a hohlraum plasma

In this Letter, we introduce a new inline model for stimulated Raman scattering (SRS), which runs on our radiation hydrodynamics code TROLL. The modeling follows from a simplified version of a rigorous theory for SRS, which we describe, and accounts for nonlinear kinetic effects. It also accounts for the SRS feedback on the plasma hydrodynamics. We dubbed it PIEM because it is a fully PredIctivE Model, no free parameter is to be adjusted \textit{a posteriori}~in order to match experimental results. PIEM predictions are compared against experimental measurements performed at the Ligne d'Int\'egration Laser. From these comparisons, we discuss PIEM ability to correctly catch the impact of nonlinear kinetic effects on SRS

Harmonic decomposition to describe the nonlinear evolution of stimulated Brillouin scattering

An efficient method to describe the nonlinear evolution of stimulated Brillouin scattering(SBS) in long scale-length plasmas is presented in the limit of a fluid description. The method is based on the decomposition of the various functions characterizing the plasma into their long- and short-wavelength components. It makes it possible to describe self-consistently the interplay between the plasmahydrodynamics,stimulated Brillouin scattering, and the generation of harmonics of the excited ion acoustic wave(IAW). This description is benchmarked numerically in one and two spatial dimensions [one dimensional (1D), two dimensional (2D)], by comparing the numerical results obtained along this method with those provided by a numerical code in which the decomposition into separate spatial scales is not made. The decomposition method proves to be very efficient in terms of computing time, especially in 2D, and very reliable, even in the extreme case of undamped ion acoustic waves. A novel picture of the SBS nonlinear behavior arises, in which the IAWharmonics generation gives rise to local defects appearing in the density and velocity hydrodynamics profiles. Consequently, SBS develops in various spatial domains which seem to be decorrelated one from each other, so that the backscattered Brillouin light is the sum of various backscatteredwaves generated in several independent spatial domains. It follows that the SBSreflectivity is chaotic in time and the resulting time-averaged value is significantly reduced as compared to the case when the IAWharmonics generation and flow modification are ignored. From the results of extensive numerical simulations carried out in 1D and 2D, we are able to infer the SBSreflectivity scaling law as a function of the plasma parameters and laser intensity, in the limit where the kinetic effects are negligible. It appears that this scaling law can be derived in the limit where the IAWharmonics generation is modeled simply by a nonlinear frequency shift

Kinetic effects in stimulated Brillouin scattering

The role of ion and electron kinetic effects in the nonlinear evolution of stimulated Brillouin scattering (SBS) is investigated by means of particle-in-cell numerical simulations. The simulations were carried out in one and two spatial dimensions (1D and 2D), with a full PIC code, in which both ions and electrons are kinetic. The full PIC simulations are compared with those obtained from a hybrid PIC code (kinetic ions and Boltzmann electrons), making it possible to determine in which limit the electron kinetic effects are important. The simulation geometry corresponds to a coherent laser beam interacting with an expanding plasma slab. In the 1D simulations, the interaction becomes incoherent, as time goes on, in a domain that spatially begins in the plasma region close to the laser light entrance, and that ends within the plasma at a frontier which moves faster than the ion acoustic wave (IAW) velocity. The higher the laser intensity, the faster moves the frontier of this spatial domain. The SBS reflectivity drops at the very moment when this domain fills entirely the plasma. Two regimes have to be distinguished. In the regimes of low laser intensity, strong sub-harmonic generation of the excited IAW is observed to take place in this moving spatial domain, so that the SBS reflectivity drop is interpreted as being due to sub-harmonic generation. In the opposite regime of high laser intensity, there is no evidence of strong sub-harmonic generation, whereas a strong ion heating is observed, so that the reflectivity drop is interpreted as being due to enhanced ion damping. In the 1D simulations the electron kinetic effects are found to be able to smooth temporally the SBS reflectivity, although the overall picture remains the same when the electrons are taken as a Boltzmann fluid. In the 2D simulations, the SBS reflectivity is observed to drop rapidly in time because of the efficient nonlinear Landau damping on the ions, as previously reported by Cohen et al. [1]. In these 2D simulations, the electron kinetic effects are found to play a negligible role as compared with the ion kinetic effects