Inferring transient dynamics of human populations from matrix non-normality

This is the final version of the article. Available from Springer Verlag via the DOI in this record.In our increasingly unstable and unpredictable world, population dynamics rarely settle uniformly to long-term behaviour. However, projecting period-by-period through the preceding fluctuations is more data-intensive and analytically involved than evaluating at equilibrium. To efficiently model populations and best inform policy, we require pragmatic suggestions as to when it is necessary to incorporate short-term transient dynamics and their effect on eventual projected population size. To estimate this need for matrix population modelling, we adopt a linear algebraic quantity known as non-normality. Matrix non-normality is distinct from normality in the Gaussian sense, and indicates the amplificatory potential of the population projection matrix given a particular population vector. In this paper, we compare and contrast three well-regarded metrics of non-normality, which were calculated for over 1000 age-structured human population projection matrices from 42 European countries in the period 1960 to 2014. Non-normality increased over time, mirroring the indices of transient dynamics that peaked around the millennium. By standardising the matrices to focus on transient dynamics and not changes in the asymptotic growth rate, we show that the damping ratio is an uninformative predictor of whether a population is prone to transient booms or busts in its size. These analyses suggest that population ecology approaches to inferring transient dynamics have too often relied on suboptimal analytical tools focussed on an initial population vector rather than the capacity of the life cycle to amplify or dampen transient fluctuations. Finally, we introduce the engineering technique of pseudospectra analysis to population ecology, which, like matrix non-normality, provides a more complete description of the transient fluctuations than the damping ratio. Pseudospectra analysis could further support non-normality assessment to enable a greater understanding of when we might expect transient phases to impact eventual population dynamics.This work was funded by Wellcome Trust New Investigator 103780 to TE, who is also funded by NERC Fellowship NE/J018163/1. JB gratefully acknowledges the ESRC Centre for Population Change ES/K007394/1

The influence of age on the female/male ratio of treated incidence rates in depression

BACKGROUND: Poor data exist on the influence of psychosocial variables on the female/male ratio of depression because of the small number of cases and the resulting limited numbers of variables available for investigation. For this investigation a large number of first admitted depressed patients (N = 2599) was available which offered the unique opportunity to calculate age specific sex ratios for different marital and employment status categories. METHODS: Age and sex specific population based depression rates were calculated for first ever admissions for single year intervals. Moving averages with interpolated corrections for marginal values in the age distribution were employed. RESULTS: For the total group the female/male ratio of depression showed an inverted U-shape over the life-cycle. This pattern was influenced by the group of married persons, which showed a sex-ratio of 3:1 between the age of 30–50, but ratios of around 1:1 at younger and older ages. For not married persons the female/male ratio was already around 2:1 at the age of 18 and rose to 2.5:1 in mid-life and declined to 1 at around 55. The almost parallel decline of depression rates in employed men and women resulted in a female/male ratio of about 2:1 from age 18 to age 50 and became 1 after the age of 60. The female/male ratio among the not employed was about 1, in mid-life it became negative. CONCLUSIONS: Our analyses show that the gender-gap in first admitted depressed patients is age dependent and that psychosocial factors modify the sex ratio

Ocular accommodation and cognitive demand: An additional indicator besides pupil size and cardiovascular measures?

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The aim of the present study was to assess accommodation as a possible indicator of changes in the autonomic balance caused by altered cognitive demand. Accounting for accommodative responses from a human factors perspective may be motivated by the interest of designing virtual image displays or by establishing an autonomic indicator that allows for remote measurement at the human eye. Heart period, pulse transit time, and the pupillary response were considered as reference for possible closed-loop accommodative effects. Cognitive demand was varied by presenting monocularly numbers at a viewing distance of 5 D (20 cm) which had to be read, added or multiplied; further, letters were presented in a "n-back" task.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Cardiovascular parameters and pupil size indicated a change in autonomic balance, while error rates and reaction time confirmed the increased cognitive demand during task processing. An observed decrease in accommodation could not be attributed to the cognitive demand itself for two reasons: (1) the cognitive demand induced a shift in gaze direction which, for methodological reasons, accounted for a substantial part of the observed accommodative changes. (2) Remaining effects disappeared when the correctness of task processing was taken into account.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Although the expectation of accommodation as possible autonomic indicator of cognitive demand was not confirmed, the present results are informative for the field of applied psychophysiology noting that it seems not to be worthwhile to include closed-loop accommodation in future studies. From a human factors perspective, expected changes of accommodation due to cognitive demand are of minor importance for design specifications – of, for example, complex visual displays.</p

Toxicogenomic and Phenotypic Analyses of Bisphenol-A Early-Life Exposure Toxicity in Zebrafish

Bisphenol-A is an important environmental contaminant due to the increased early-life exposure that may pose significant health-risks to various organisms including humans. This study aimed to use zebrafish as a toxicogenomic model to capture transcriptomic and phenotypic changes for inference of signaling pathways, biological processes, physiological systems and identify potential biomarker genes that are affected by early-life exposure to bisphenol-A. Phenotypic analysis using wild-type zebrafish larvae revealed BPA early-life exposure toxicity caused cardiac edema, cranio-facial abnormality, failure of swimbladder inflation and poor tactile response. Fluorescent imaging analysis using three transgenic lines revealed suppressed neuron branching from the spinal cord, abnormal development of neuromast cells, and suppressed vascularization in the abdominal region. Using knowledge-based data mining algorithms, transcriptome analysis suggests that several signaling pathways involving ephrin receptor, clathrin-mediated endocytosis, synaptic long-term potentiation, axonal guidance, vascular endothelial growth factor, integrin and tight junction were deregulated. Physiological systems with related disorders associated with the nervous, cardiovascular, skeletal-muscular, blood and reproductive systems were implicated, hence corroborated with the phenotypic analysis. Further analysis identified a common set of BPA-targeted genes and revealed a plausible mechanism involving disruption of endocrine-regulated genes and processes in known susceptible tissue-organs. The expression of 28 genes were validated in a separate experiment using quantitative real-time PCR and 6 genes, ncl1, apoeb, mdm1, mycl1b, sp4, U1SNRNPBP homolog, were found to be sensitive and robust biomarkers for BPA early-life exposure toxicity. The susceptibility of sp4 to BPA perturbation suggests its role in altering brain development, function and subsequently behavior observed in laboratory animals exposed to BPA during early life, which is a health-risk concern of early life exposure in humans. The present study further established zebrafish as a model for toxicogenomic inference of early-life chemical exposure toxicity

Differential Cerebral Cortex Transcriptomes of Baboon Neonates Consuming Moderate and High Docosahexaenoic Acid Formulas

BACKGROUND: Docosahexaenoic acid (DHA, 22:6n-3) and arachidonic acid (ARA, 20:4n-6) are the major long chain polyunsaturated fatty acids (LCPUFA) of the central nervous system (CNS). These nutrients are present in most infant formulas at modest levels, intended to support visual and neural development. There are no investigations in primates of the biological consequences of dietary DHA at levels above those present in formulas but within normal breastmilk levels. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Twelve baboons were divided into three formula groups: Control, with no DHA-ARA; “L”, LCPUFA, with 0.33%DHA-0.67%ARA; “L3”, LCPUFA, with 1.00%DHA-0.67%ARA. All the samples are from the precentral gyrus of cerebral cortex brain regions. At 12 weeks of age, changes in gene expression were detected in 1,108 of 54,000 probe sets (2.05%), with most showing <2-fold change. Gene ontology analysis assigns them to diverse biological functions, notably lipid metabolism and transport, G-protein and signal transduction, development, visual perception, cytoskeleton, peptidases, stress response, transcription regulation, and 400 transcripts having no defined function. PLA2G6, a phospholipase recently associated with infantile neuroaxonal dystrophy, was downregulated in both LCPUFA groups. ELOVL5, a PUFA elongase, was the only LCPUFA biosynthetic enzyme that was differentially expressed. Mitochondrial fatty acid carrier, CPT2, was among several genes associated with mitochondrial fatty acid oxidation to be downregulated by high DHA, while the mitochondrial proton carrier, UCP2, was upregulated. TIMM8A, also known as deafness/dystonia peptide 1, was among several differentially expressed neural development genes. LUM and TIMP3, associated with corneal structure and age-related macular degeneration, respectively, were among visual perception genes influenced by LCPUFA. TIA1, a silencer of COX2 gene translation, is upregulated by high DHA. Ingenuity pathway analysis identified a highly significant nervous system network, with epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) as the outstanding interaction partner. CONCLUSIONS: These data indicate that LCPUFA concentrations within the normal range of human breastmilk induce global changes in gene expression across a wide array of processes, in addition to changes in visual and neural function normally associated with formula LCPUFA

Multi-messenger observations of a binary neutron star merger

On 2017 August 17 a binary neutron star coalescence candidate (later designated GW170817) with merger time 12:41:04 UTC was observed through gravitational waves by the Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo detectors. The Fermi Gamma-ray Burst Monitor independently detected a gamma-ray burst (GRB 170817A) with a time delay of ~1.7 s with respect to the merger time. From the gravitational-wave signal, the source was initially localized to a sky region of 31 deg2 at a luminosity distance of 40+8-8 Mpc and with component masses consistent with neutron stars. The component masses were later measured to be in the range 0.86 to 2.26 Mo. An extensive observing campaign was launched across the electromagnetic spectrum leading to the discovery of a bright optical transient (SSS17a, now with the IAU identification of AT 2017gfo) in NGC 4993 (at ~40 Mpc) less than 11 hours after the merger by the One- Meter, Two Hemisphere (1M2H) team using the 1 m Swope Telescope. The optical transient was independently detected by multiple teams within an hour. Subsequent observations targeted the object and its environment. Early ultraviolet observations revealed a blue transient that faded within 48 hours. Optical and infrared observations showed a redward evolution over ~10 days. Following early non-detections, X-ray and radio emission were discovered at the transient’s position ~9 and ~16 days, respectively, after the merger. Both the X-ray and radio emission likely arise from a physical process that is distinct from the one that generates the UV/optical/near-infrared emission. No ultra-high-energy gamma-rays and no neutrino candidates consistent with the source were found in follow-up searches. These observations support the hypothesis that GW170817 was produced by the merger of two neutron stars in NGC4993 followed by a short gamma-ray burst (GRB 170817A) and a kilonova/macronova powered by the radioactive decay of r-process nuclei synthesized in the ejecta

First Measurement of the Hubble Constant from a Dark Standard Siren using the Dark Energy Survey Galaxies and the LIGO/Virgo Binary-Black-hole Merger GW170814

We present a multi-messenger measurement of the Hubble constant H 0 using the binary–black-hole merger GW170814 as a standard siren, combined with a photometric redshift catalog from the Dark Energy Survey (DES). The luminosity distance is obtained from the gravitational wave signal detected by the Laser Interferometer Gravitational-Wave Observatory (LIGO)/Virgo Collaboration (LVC) on 2017 August 14, and the redshift information is provided by the DES Year 3 data. Black hole mergers such as GW170814 are expected to lack bright electromagnetic emission to uniquely identify their host galaxies and build an object-by-object Hubble diagram. However, they are suitable for a statistical measurement, provided that a galaxy catalog of adequate depth and redshift completion is available. Here we present the first Hubble parameter measurement using a black hole merger. Our analysis results in ${H}_{0}={75}_{-32}^{+40}\,\mathrm{km}\,{{\rm{s}}}^{-1}\,{\mathrm{Mpc}}^{-1}$, which is consistent with both SN Ia and cosmic microwave background measurements of the Hubble constant. The quoted 68% credible region comprises 60% of the uniform prior range [20, 140] km s−1 Mpc−1, and it depends on the assumed prior range. If we take a broader prior of [10, 220] km s−1 Mpc−1, we find {H}_{0 {78}_{-24}^{+96}\,\mathrm{km}\,{{\rm{s}}}^{-1}\,{\mathrm{Mpc}}^{-1} (57% of the prior range). Although a weak constraint on the Hubble constant from a single event is expected using the dark siren method, a multifold increase in the LVC event rate is anticipated in the coming years and combinations of many sirens will lead to improved constraints on H 0

Search for gravitational waves associated with gamma-ray bursts detected by Fermi and Swift during the LIGO–Virgo run O3b

We search for gravitational-wave signals associated with gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) detected by the Fermi and Swift satellites during the second half of the third observing run of Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo (2019 November 1 15:00 UTC–2020 March 27 17:00 UTC). We conduct two independent searches: a generic gravitational-wave transients search to analyze 86 GRBs and an analysis to target binary mergers with at least one neutron star as short GRB progenitors for 17 events. We find no significant evidence for gravitational-wave signals associated with any of these GRBs. A weighted binomial test of the combined results finds no evidence for subthreshold gravitational-wave signals associated with this GRB ensemble either. We use several source types and signal morphologies during the searches, resulting in lower bounds on the estimated distance to each GRB. Finally, we constrain the population of low-luminosity short GRBs using results from the first to the third observing runs of Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo. The resulting population is in accordance with the local binary neutron star merger rate