The Great American Crime Decline : Possible Explanations

This chapter examines the most important features of the crime decline in the United States during the 1990s-2010s but also takes a broader look at the violence declines of the last three centuries. The author argues that violent and property crime trends might have diverged in the 1990s, with property crimes increasingly happening in the online sphere and thus traditional property crime statistics not being reflective of the full picture. An important distinction is made between ‘contact crimes’ and crimes that do not require a victim and offender to be present in the same physical space. Contrary to the uncertainties engendered by property crime, the declines in violent (‘contact’) crime are rather general, and have been happening not only across all demographic and geographic categories within the United States but also throughout the developed world. An analysis of research literature on crime trends has identified twenty-four different explanations for the crime drop. Each one of them is briefly outlined and examined in terms of conceptual clarity and empirical support. Nine crime decline explanations are highlighted as the most promising ones. The majority of these promising explanations, being relative newcomers in the crime trends literature, have not been subjected to sufficient empirical scrutiny yet, and thus require further research. One potentially fruitful avenue for future studies is to examine the association of the most promising crime decline explanations with improvements in self-control

Female homicidal strangulation in urban South Africa

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Female strangulation in South Africa occurs in a context of pervasive and often extreme violence perpetrated against women, and therefore represents a major public health, social and human rights concern. South African studies that provide accurate descriptions of the occurrence of strangulation incidents among female homicide victims are limited. The current study describes the extent, distribution and patterns of homicidal strangulation of women in the four largest South African metropolitan centres, Tshwane/Pretoria, Johannesburg, Cape Town and Ethekwini/Durban.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The study is a register-based cross sectional investigation of female homicidal strangulation, as reported in the National Injury Mortality Surveillance System for the four cities, for the period 2001 to 2005. Crude, unadjusted female strangulation rates for age and population group, and proportions of strangulation across specific circumstances of occurrence were compiled for each year and aggregated in some cases.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>This study reports that female homicidal strangulation in urban South Africa ranges from 1.71/100 000 to 0.70/100 000. Rates have generally declined in all the cities, except Cape Town. The highest rates were reported in the over 60 and the 20 to 39 year old populations, and amongst women of mixed descent. Most strangulations occurred from the early morning hours and across typical working hours in Johannesburg and Durban, and to a lesser extent in Cape Town. Occurrences across Johannesburg, Durban and Pretoria were distributed across the days of the week; an exception was Cape Town, which reported the highest rates over the weekend. Cape Town also reported distinctly high blood alcohol content levels of strangulation victims. The seasonal variation in strangulation deaths suggested a pattern of occurrence generally spanning the period from end-winter to summer. Across cities, the predominant crime scene was linked to the domestic context, suggesting that perpetration was by an intimate partner or acquaintance.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The study contributes to an emerging gendered homicide risk profile for a country with one of the highest homicide rates in the world. The results support the call for the development of evidence-based and gender-specific initiatives to especially address the forms of violence that instigate fatalities.</p