Dynamics of new strain emergence on a temporal network

Multi-strain competition on networks is observed in many contexts, including infectious disease ecology, information dissemination or behavioral adaptation to epidemics. Despite a substantial body of research has been developed considering static, time-aggregated networks, it remains a challenge to understand the transmission of concurrent strains when links of the network are created and destroyed over time. Here we analyze how network dynamics shapes the outcome of the competition between an initially endemic strain and an emerging one, when both strains follow a susceptible-infected-susceptible dynamics, and spread at time scales comparable with the network evolution one. Using time-resolved data of close-proximity interactions between patients admitted to a hospital and medical health care workers, we analyze the impact of temporal patterns and initial conditions on the dominance diagram and coexistence time. We find that strong variations in activity volume cause the probability that the emerging strain replaces the endemic one to be highly sensitive to the time of emergence. The temporal structure of the network shapes the dominance diagram, with significant variations in the replacement probability (for a given set of epidemiological parameters) observed from the empirical network and a randomized version of it. Our work contributes towards the description of the complex interplay between competing pathogens on temporal networks.Comment: 9 pages, 4 figure

Reconstructing dynamical networks via feature ranking

Empirical data on real complex systems are becoming increasingly available. Parallel to this is the need for new methods of reconstructing (inferring) the topology of networks from time-resolved observations of their node-dynamics. The methods based on physical insights often rely on strong assumptions about the properties and dynamics of the scrutinized network. Here, we use the insights from machine learning to design a new method of network reconstruction that essentially makes no such assumptions. Specifically, we interpret the available trajectories (data) as features, and use two independent feature ranking approaches -- Random forest and RReliefF -- to rank the importance of each node for predicting the value of each other node, which yields the reconstructed adjacency matrix. We show that our method is fairly robust to coupling strength, system size, trajectory length and noise. We also find that the reconstruction quality strongly depends on the dynamical regime

Latin America ClimateSmart Villages AR4D sites: 2016 Inventory

Inventory of CSA practices in Latin America’s ClimateSmart Villages

Seroprevalence and Risk Factors for Rickettsia and Leptospira Infection in Four Ecologically Distinct Regions of Peru.

Rickettsia and Leptospira spp. are under-recognized causes of acute febrile disease worldwide. Rickettsia species are often placed into the spotted fever group rickettsiae (SFGR) and typhus group rickettsiae (TGR). We explored the antibody prevalence among humans for these two groups of rickettsiae in four regions of Peru (Lima, Cusco, Puerto Maldonado, and Tumbes) and for Leptospira spp. in Puerto Maldonado and Tumbes. We also assessed risk factors for seropositivity and collected serum samples and ectoparasites from peri-domestic animals from households in sites with high human seroprevalence. In total, we tested 2,165 human sera for antibodies (IgG) against SFGR and TGR by ELISA and for antibodies against Leptospira by a microscopic agglutination test. Overall, human antibody prevalence across the four sites was 10.6% for SFGR (ranging from 6.2% to 14.0%, highest in Tumbes) and 3.3% for TGR (ranging from 2.6% to 6.4%, highest in Puerto Maldonado). Factors associated with seroreactivity against SFGR were male gender, older age, contact with backyard birds, and working in agriculture or with livestock. However, exposure to any kind of animal within the household decreased the odds ratio by half. Age was the only variable associated with higher TGR seroprevalence. The prevalence of Leptospira was 11.3% in Puerto Maldonado and 5.8% in Tumbes, with a borderline association with keeping animals in the household. We tested animal sera for Leptospira and conducted polymerase chain reaction (PCR) to detect Rickettsia species among ectoparasites collected from domestic animals in 63 households of seropositive participants and controls. We did not find any association between animal infection and human serostatus

Serologic Evidence of Scrub Typhus in the Peruvian Amazon.

Using a large, passive, febrile surveillance program in Iquitos, Peru, we retrospectively tested human blood specimens for scrub typhus group orientiae by ELISA, immunofluorescence assay, and PCR. Of 1,124 participants, 60 (5.3%) were seropositive, and 1 showed evidence of recent active infection. Our serologic data indicate that scrub typhus is present in the Peruvian Amazon

Rickettsial Disease in the Peruvian Amazon Basin.

Using a large, passive, clinic-based surveillance program in Iquitos, Peru, we characterized the prevalence of rickettsial infections among undifferentiated febrile cases and obtained evidence of pathogen transmission in potential domestic reservoir contacts and their ectoparasites. Blood specimens from humans and animals were assayed for spotted fever group rickettsiae (SFGR) and typhus group rickettsiae (TGR) by ELISA and/or PCR; ectoparasites were screened by PCR. Logistic regression was used to determine associations between patient history, demographic characteristics of participants and symptoms, clinical findings and outcome of rickettsial infection. Of the 2,054 enrolled participants, almost 2% showed evidence of seroconversion or a 4-fold rise in antibody titers specific for rickettsiae between acute and convalescent blood samples. Of 190 fleas (Ctenocephalides felis) and 60 ticks (Rhipicephalus sanguineus) tested, 185 (97.4%) and 3 (5%), respectively, were positive for Rickettsia spp. Candidatus Rickettsia asemboensis was identified in 100% and 33% of the fleas and ticks tested, respectively. Collectively, our serologic data indicates that human pathogenic SFGR are present in the Peruvian Amazon and pose a significant risk of infection to individuals exposed to wild, domestic and peri-domestic animals and their ectoparasites