External validation of anti-Müllerian hormone based prediction of live birth in assisted conception

<p>Background - Chronological age and oocyte yield are independent determinants of live birth in assisted conception. Anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH) is strongly associated with oocyte yield after controlled ovarian stimulation. We have previously assessed the ability of AMH and age to independently predict live birth in an Italian assisted conception cohort. Herein we report the external validation of the nomogram in 822 UK first in vitro fertilization (IVF) cycles.</p> <p>Methods - Retrospective cohort consisting of 822 patients undergoing their first IVF treatment cycle at Glasgow Centre for Reproductive Medicine. Analyses were restricted to women aged between 25 and 42 years of age. All women had an AMH measured prior to commencing their first IVF cycle. The performance of the model was assessed; discrimination by the area under the receiver operator curve (ROCAUC) and model calibration by the predicted probability versus observed probability.</p> <p>Results - Live births occurred in 29.4% of the cohort. The observed and predicted outcomes showed no evidence of miscalibration (p = 0.188). The ROCAUC was 0.64 (95% CI: 0.60, 0.68), suggesting moderate and similar discrimination to the original model. The ROCAUC for a continuous model of age and AMH was 0.65 (95% CI 0.61, 0.69), suggesting that the original categories of AMH were appropriate.</p> <p>Conclusions - We confirm by external validation that AMH and age are independent predictors of live birth. Although the confidence intervals for each category are wide, our results support the assessment of AMH in larger cohorts with detailed baseline phenotyping for live birth prediction.</p&gt

External validation of anti-Müllerian hormone based prediction of live birth in assisted conception

External validation of anti-M??llerian hormone based prediction of live birth in assisted conceptio

Compact groups in theory and practice -- IV. The connection to large-scale structure

We investigate the properties of photometrically-selected compact groups (CGs) in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey. In this paper, the fourth in a series, we focus on understanding the characteristics of our observed CG sample with particular attention paid to quantifying and removing contamination from projected foreground or background galaxies. Based on a simple comparison of pairwise redshift likelihoods, we find that approximately half of compact groups in the parent sample contain one or more projected (interloping) members; our final clean sample contains 4566 galaxies in 1086 compact groups. We show that half of the remaining CGs are associated with rich groups (or clusters), i.e. they are embedded sub-structure. The other half have spatial distributions and number-density profiles consistent with the interpretation that they are either independently distributed structures within the field (i.e. they are isolated) or associated with relatively poor structures. Comparisons of late-type and red-sequence fractions in radial annuli show that galaxies around apparently isolated compact groups resemble the field population by 300 to 500 kpc from the group centre. In contrast, the galaxy population surrounding embedded compact groups appears to remain distinct from the field out beyond 1 to 2 Mpc, consistent with results for rich groups. We take this as additional evidence that the observed distinction between compact groups, i.e. isolated vs. embedded, is a separation between different host environments.Comment: 15 pages, 11 figures. Accepted for publication in MNRA

The relationship between anti-mullerian hormone in women receiving fertility assessments and age at menopause in subfertile women: evidence from large population studies

<p>Context: Anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH) concentration reflects ovarian aging and is argued to be a useful predictor of age at menopause (AMP). It is hypothesized that AMH falling below a critical threshold corresponds to follicle depletion, which results in menopause. With this threshold, theoretical predictions of AMP can be made. Comparisons of such predictions with observed AMP from population studies support the role for AMH as a forecaster of menopause.</p> <p>Objective: The objective of the study was to investigate whether previous relationships between AMH and AMP are valid using a much larger data set.</p> <p>Setting: AMH was measured in 27 563 women attending fertility clinics.</p> <p>Study Design: From these data a model of age-related AMH change was constructed using a robust regression analysis. Data on AMP from subfertile women were obtained from the population-based Prospect-European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (Prospect-EPIC) cohort (n = 2249). By constructing a probability distribution of age at which AMH falls below a critical threshold and fitting this to Prospect-EPIC menopausal age data using maximum likelihood, such a threshold was estimated.</p> <p>Main Outcome: The main outcome was conformity between observed and predicted AMP.</p> <p>Results: To get a distribution of AMH-predicted AMP that fit the Prospect-EPIC data, we found the critical AMH threshold should vary among women in such a way that women with low age-specific AMH would have lower thresholds, whereas women with high age-specific AMH would have higher thresholds (mean 0.075 ng/mL; interquartile range 0.038–0.15 ng/mL). Such a varying AMH threshold for menopause is a novel and biologically plausible finding. AMH became undetectable (<0.2 ng/mL) approximately 5 years before the occurrence of menopause, in line with a previous report.</p> <p>Conclusions: The conformity of the observed and predicted distributions of AMP supports the hypothesis that declining population averages of AMH are associated with menopause, making AMH an excellent candidate biomarker for AMP prediction. Further research will help establish the accuracy of AMH levels to predict AMP within individuals.</p&gt

Galaxy Pairs in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey I: Star Formation, AGN Fraction, and the Luminosity/Mass-Metallicity Relation

(Abridged). We present a sample of 1716 galaxies with companions within Delta v < 500 km/s, r_p < 80 kpc and stellar mass ratio 0.1 < M_1/M_2 < 10 from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) Data Release 4 (DR4). In agreement with previous studies, we find an enhancement in the star formation rate (SFR) of galaxy pairs at projected separations < 30--40 kpc. In addition, we find that this enhancement is highest (and extends to the greatest separations) for galaxies of approximately equal mass, the so-called `major' pairs. However, SFR enhancement can still be detected for a sample of galaxy pairs whose masses are within a factor of 10 of each other. In agreement with the one previous study of the luminosity-metallicity (LZ) relation in paired galaxies, we find an offset to lower metallicities (by ~ 0.1 dex) for a given luminosity for galaxies in pairs compared to the control sample. We also present the first mass-metallicity (MZ) relation comparison between paired galaxies and the field, and again find an offset to lower metallicities (by ~ 0.05 dex) for a given mass. The smaller offset in the MZ relation indicates that both higher luminosities and lower metallicities may contribute to the shift of pairs relative to the control in the LZ relation. We show that the offset in the LZ relation depends on galaxy half light radius, r_h. Galaxies with r_h < 3 kpc and with a close companion show a 0.05-0.1 dex downwards offset in metallicity compared to control galaxies of the same size. Finally, we study the AGN fraction in both the pair and control sample and find that whilst selecting galaxies in different cuts of color and asymmetry yields different AGN fractions, the fraction for pairs and the control sample are consistent for a given set of selection criteria.Comment: Accepted for publication in the Astronomical Journa

The ATLAS3D project - XXIX : The new look of early-type galaxies and surrounding fields disclosed by extremely deep optical images

Date of Acceptance: 25/09/2014Galactic archaeology based on star counts is instrumental to reconstruct the past mass assembly of Local Group galaxies. The development of new observing techniques and data reduction, coupled with the use of sensitive large field of view cameras, now allows us to pursue this technique in more distant galaxies exploiting their diffuse low surface brightness (LSB) light. As part of the ATLAS3D project, we have obtained with the MegaCam camera at the Canada-France-Hawaii Telescope extremely deep, multiband images of nearby early-type galaxies (ETGs). We present here a catalogue of 92 galaxies from the ATLAS3D sample, which are located in low- to medium-density environments. The observing strategy and data reduction pipeline, which achieve a gain of several magnitudes in the limiting surface brightness with respect to classical imaging surveys, are presented. The size and depth of the survey are compared to other recent deep imaging projects. The paper highlights the capability of LSB-optimized surveys at detecting new prominent structures that change the apparent morphology of galaxies. The intrinsic limitations of deep imaging observations are also discussed, among those, the contamination of the stellar haloes of galaxies by extended ghost reflections, and the cirrus emission from Galactic dust. The detection and systematic census of fine structures that trace the present and past mass assembly of ETGs are one of the prime goals of the project. We provide specific examples of each type of observed structures - tidal tails, stellar streams and shells - and explain how they were identified and classified. We give an overview of the initial results. The detailed statistical analysis will be presented in future papers.Peer reviewedFinal Accepted Versio

The Maunakea Spectroscopic Explorer Book 2018

(Abridged) This is the Maunakea Spectroscopic Explorer 2018 book. It is intended as a concise reference guide to all aspects of the scientific and technical design of MSE, for the international astronomy and engineering communities, and related agencies. The current version is a status report of MSE's science goals and their practical implementation, following the System Conceptual Design Review, held in January 2018. MSE is a planned 10-m class, wide-field, optical and near-infrared facility, designed to enable transformative science, while filling a critical missing gap in the emerging international network of large-scale astronomical facilities. MSE is completely dedicated to multi-object spectroscopy of samples of between thousands and millions of astrophysical objects. It will lead the world in this arena, due to its unique design capabilities: it will boast a large (11.25 m) aperture and wide (1.52 sq. degree) field of view; it will have the capabilities to observe at a wide range of spectral resolutions, from R2500 to R40,000, with massive multiplexing (4332 spectra per exposure, with all spectral resolutions available at all times), and an on-target observing efficiency of more than 80%. MSE will unveil the composition and dynamics of the faint Universe and is designed to excel at precision studies of faint astrophysical phenomena. It will also provide critical follow-up for multi-wavelength imaging surveys, such as those of the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope, Gaia, Euclid, the Wide Field Infrared Survey Telescope, the Square Kilometre Array, and the Next Generation Very Large Array.Comment: 5 chapters, 160 pages, 107 figure

Characterising galaxy groups: spectroscopic observations of the Shakhbazyan sample

Groups of galaxies are the most common cosmic structures. However, due to the poor statistics, projection effects and the lack of accurate distances, our understanding of their dynamical and evolutionary status is still limited. This is particularly true for the so called Shakhbazyan groups (SHK) which are still largely unexplored due to the lack of systematic spectroscopic studies of both their member galaxies and the surrounding environment. In our previous paper, we investigated the statistical properties of a large sample of SHK groups using Sloan Digital Sky Survey data and photometric redshifts. Here we present the follow-up of 5 SHK groups (SHK 10, 71, 75, 80, 259) observed within our spectroscopic campaign with the Telescopio Nazionale Galileo, aimed at confirming their physical reality and strengthening our photometric results. For each of the selected groups we were able to identify between 6 and 13 spectroscopic members, thus confirming the robustness of the photometric redshift approach in identifying real galaxy over-densities. Consistently with the finding of our previous paper, the structures studied here have properties spanning from those of compact and isolated groups to those of loose groups. For what the global physical properties are concerned (total mass, mass-to-light ratios, etc.), we find systematic differences with those reported in the literature by previous studies. Our analysis suggests that previous results should be revisited; we show in fact that, if the literature data are re-analysed in a consistent and homogeneous way, the properties obtained are in agreement with those estimated for our sample.Comment: 31 pages, 25 figures, 10 tables. Accepted for publication on MNRAS. Table references updated. Few minor corrections to the text applie

The Pristine survey -- XXIII. Data Release 1 and an all-sky metallicity catalogue based on Gaia DR3 BP/RP spectro-photometry

We use the spectro-photometric information of ~219 million stars from Gaia's DR3 to calculate synthetic, narrow-band, metallicity-sensitive CaHK magnitudes that mimic the observations of the Pristine survey, a survey of photometric metallicities of Milky Way stars that has been mapping more than 6,500 deg^2 of the northern sky with the CFHT since 2015. These synthetic magnitudes are used for an absolute re-calibration of the deeper Pristine photometry and, combined with broadband Gaia information, synthetic and Pristine CaHK magnitudes are used to estimate photometric metallicities over the whole sky. The resulting metallicity catalogue is accurate down to [Fe/H]~-3.5 and is particularly suited for the exploration of the metal-poor Milky Way ([Fe/H]<-1.0). We make available here the catalogue of synthetic CaHK_syn magnitudes for all stars with BP/RP information in Gaia DR3, as well as an associated catalogue of more than ~30 million photometric metallicities for high S/N FGK stars. This paper further provides the first public DR of the Pristine catalogue in the form of higher quality recalibrated Pristine CaHK magnitudes and photometric metallicities for all stars in common with the BP/RP information in Gaia DR3. We demonstrate that, when available, the much deeper Pristine data greatly enhances the quality of the derived metallicities, in particular at the faint end of the catalogue (G_BP>16). Combined, both catalogues include more than 2 million metal-poor star candidates as well as more than 200,000 and ~8,000 very and extremely metal-poor candidates. Finally, we show that these metallicity catalogues can be used efficiently, among other applications, for Galactic archaeology, to hunt for the most metal-poor stars, and to study how the structure of the Milky Way varies with metallicity, from the flat distribution of disk stars to the spheroid-shaped metal-poor halo. (Shortened)Comment: 30 pages, 24 figures, submitted to A&A. First two authors are co-first author. The CaHK photometry catalogue and the two photometric metallicity catalogues are available, before acceptance, as large compressed csv files at: https://seafile.unistra.fr/d/ee0c0f05719d4368bcbb

Study protocol of European Fans in Training (EuroFIT):a four-country randomised controlled trial of a lifestyle program for men delivered in elite football clubs

Background: Lifestyle interventions targeting physical activity, sedentary time and dietary behaviours have the potential to initiate and support behavioural change and result in public health gain. Although men have often been reluctant to engage in such lifestyle programs, many are at high risk of several chronic conditions. We have developed an evidence and theory-based, gender sensitised, health and lifestyle program (European Fans in Training (EuroFIT)), which is designed to attract men through the loyalty they feel to the football club they support. This paper describes the study protocol to evaluate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of the EuroFIT program in supporting men to improve their level of physical activity and reduce sedentary behaviour over 12 months. Methods: The EuroFIT study is a pragmatic, two-arm, randomised controlled trial conducted in 15 football clubs in the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal and the UK (England). One-thousand men, aged 30 to 65 years, with a self-reported Body Mass Index (BMI) ≥27 kg/m2 will be recruited and individually randomised. The primary outcomes are objectively-assessed changes in total physical activity (steps per day) and total sedentary time (minutes per day) at 12 months after baseline assessment. Secondary outcomes are weight, BMI, waist circumference, resting systolic and diastolic blood pressure, cardio-metabolic blood biomarkers, food intake, self-reported physical activity and sedentary time, wellbeing, self-esteem, vitality and quality of life. Cost-effectiveness will be assessed and a process evaluation conducted. The EuroFIT program will be delivered over 12 weekly, 90-minute sessions that combine classroom discussion with graded physical activity in the setting of the football club. Classroom sessions provide participants with a toolbox of behaviour change techniques to initiate and sustain long-term lifestyle changes. The coaches will receive two days of training to enable them to create a positive social environment that supports men in engaging in sustained behaviour change. Discussion: The EuroFIT trial will provide evidence on the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of the EuroFIT program delivered by football clubs to their male fans, and will offer insight into factors associated with success in making sustained changes to physical activity, sedentary behaviour, and secondary outcomes, such as diet.Trial registration: ISRCTN: 81935608. Registered 16 June 2015.<br/