Ensemble prediction for nowcasting with a convection-permitting model - II: forecast error statistics

A 24-member ensemble of 1-h high-resolution forecasts over the Southern United Kingdom is used to study short-range forecast error statistics. The initial conditions are found from perturbations from an ensemble transform Kalman filter. Forecasts from this system are assumed to lie within the bounds of forecast error of an operational forecast system. Although noisy, this system is capable of producing physically reasonable statistics which are analysed and compared to statistics implied from a variational assimilation system. The variances for temperature errors for instance show structures that reflect convective activity. Some variables, notably potential temperature and specific humidity perturbations, have autocorrelation functions that deviate from 3-D isotropy at the convective-scale (horizontal scales less than 10 km). Other variables, notably the velocity potential for horizontal divergence perturbations, maintain 3-D isotropy at all scales. Geostrophic and hydrostatic balances are studied by examining correlations between terms in the divergence and vertical momentum equations respectively. Both balances are found to decay as the horizontal scale decreases. It is estimated that geostrophic balance becomes less important at scales smaller than 75 km, and hydrostatic balance becomes less important at scales smaller than 35 km, although more work is required to validate these findings. The implications of these results for high-resolution data assimilation are discussed

Streamer Wave Events Observed in Solar Cycle 23

In this paper we conduct a data survey searching for well-defined streamer wave events observed by the Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO) on-board the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) throughout Solar Cycle 23. As a result, 8 candidate events are found and presented here. We compare different events and find that in most of them the driving CMEs ejecta are characterized by a high speed and a wide angular span, and the CME-streamer interactions occur generally along the flank of the streamer structure at an altitude no higher than the bottom of the field of view of LASCO C2. In addition, all front-side CMEs have accompanying flares. These common observational features shed light on the excitation conditions of streamer wave events. We also conduct a further analysis on one specific streamer wave event on 5 June 2003. The heliocentric distances of 4 wave troughs/crests at various exposure times are determined; they are then used to deduce the wave properties like period, wavelength, and phase speeds. It is found that both the period and wavelength increase gradually with the wave propagation along the streamer plasma sheet, and the phase speed of the preceding wave is generally faster than that of the trailing ones. The associated coronal seismological study yields the radial profiles of the Alfv\'en speed and magnetic field strength in the region surrounding the streamer plasma sheet. Both quantities show a general declining trend with time. This is interpreted as an observational manifestation of the recovering process of the CME-disturbed corona. It is also found that the Alfv\'enic critical point is at about 10 R$_\odot$ where the flow speed, which equals the Alfv\'en speed, is $\sim$ 200 km s$^{-1}$

The Sparsest Clusters With O Stars

There is much debate on how high-mass star formation varies with environment, and whether the sparsest star-forming environments are capable of forming massive stars. To address this issue, we have observed eight apparently isolated OB stars in the SMC using HST's Advanced Camera for Surveys. Five of these objects appear as isolated stars, two of which are confirmed to be runaways. The remaining three objects are found to exist in sparse clusters, with <10 companion stars revealed, having masses of 1-4 solar mass. Stochastic effects dominate in these sparse clusters, so we perform Monte Carlo simulations to explore how our observations fit within the framework of empirical, galactic cluster properties. We generate clusters using a simplistic -2 power-law distribution for either the number of stars per cluster (N_*) or cluster mass (M_cl). These clusters are then populated with stars randomly chosen from a Kroupa IMF. We find that simulations with cluster lower-mass limits of M_cl,lo >20 solar mass and N_*,lo >40 match best with observations of SMC and Galactic OB star populations. We examine the mass ratio of the second-most massive and most massive stars (m_max,2/m_max), finding that our observations all exist below the 20th percentile of our simulated clusters. However, all of our observed clusters lie within the parameter space spanned by the simulated clusters, although some are in the lowest 5th percentile frequency. These results suggest that clusters are built stochastically by randomly sampling stars from a universal IMF with a fixed stellar upper-mass limit. In particular, we see no evidence to suggest a m_max - M_cl relation. Our results may be more consistent with core accretion models of star formation than with competitive accretion models, and they are inconsistent with the proposed steepening of the integrated galaxy IMF (IGIMF).Comment: 19 pages, 12 figures, accepted for publication in Ap

Data assimilation with correlated observation errors: experiments with a 1-D shallow water model

Remote sensing observations often have correlated errors, but the correlations are typically ignored in data assimilation for numerical weather prediction. The assumption of zero correlations is often used with data thinning methods, resulting in a loss of information. As operational centres move towards higher-resolution forecasting, there is a requirement to retain data providing detail on appropriate scales. Thus an alternative approach to dealing with observation error correlations is needed. In this article, we consider several approaches to approximating observation error correlation matrices: diagonal approximations, eigendecomposition approximations and Markov matrices. These approximations are applied in incremental variational assimilation experiments with a 1-D shallow water model using synthetic observations. Our experiments quantify analysis accuracy in comparison with a reference or ‘truth’ trajectory, as well as with analyses using the ‘true’ observation error covariance matrix. We show that it is often better to include an approximate correlation structure in the observation error covariance matrix than to incorrectly assume error independence. Furthermore, by choosing a suitable matrix approximation, it is feasible and computationally cheap to include error correlation structure in a variational data assimilation algorithm

Status of the CRESST Dark Matter Search

The CRESST experiment aims for a detection of dark matter in the form of WIMPs. These particles are expected to scatter elastically off the nuclei of a target material, thereby depositing energy on the recoiling nucleus. CRESST uses scintillating CaWO4 crystals as such a target. The energy deposited by an interacting particle is primarily converted to phonons which are detected by transition edge sensors. In addition, a small fraction of the interaction energy is emitted from the crystals in the form of scintillation light which is measured in coincidence with the phonon signal by a separate cryogenic light detector for each target crystal. The ratio of light to phonon energy permits the discrimination between the nuclear recoils expected from WIMPs and events from radioactive backgrounds which primarily lead to electron recoils. CRESST has shown the success of this method in a commissioning run in 2007 and, since then, further investigated possibilities for an even better suppression of backgrounds. Here, we report on a new class of background events observed in the course of this work. The consequences of this observation are discussed and we present the current status of the experiment.Comment: Proceedings of the 13th International Workshop on Low Temperature Detectors, 4 pages, 3 figure

A survey for near-infrared H2 emission in Herbig Ae/Be stars: emission from the outer disks of HD 97048 and HD 100546

We report on a sensitive search for H2 1-0 S(1), 1-0 S(0) and 2-1 S(1) ro-vibrational emission at 2.12, 2.22 and 2.25 micron in a sample of 15 Herbig Ae/Be stars employing CRIRES, the ESO-VLT near-infrared high-resolution spectrograph, at R~90,000. We detect the H2 1-0 S(1) line toward HD 100546 and HD 97048. In the other 13 targets, the line is not detected. The H2 1-0 S(0) and 2-1 S(1) lines are undetected in all sources. This is the first detection of near-IR H2 emission in HD 100546. The H2 1-0 S(1) lines observed in HD 100546 and HD 97048 are observed at a velocity consistent with the rest velocity of both stars, suggesting that they are produced in the circumstellar disk. In HD 97048, the emission is spatially resolved and it is observed to extend at least up to 200 AU. We report an increase of one order of magnitude in the H2 1-0 S(1) line flux with respect to previous measurements taken in 2003 for this star, which suggests line variability. In HD 100546 the emission is tentatively spatially resolved and may extend at least up to 50 AU. Modeling of the H2 1-0 S(1) line profiles and their spatial extent with flat keplerian disks shows that most of the emission is produced at a radius >5 AU. Upper limits to the H2 1-0 S(0)/ 1-0 S(1) and H2 2-1 S(1)/1-0 S(1) line ratios in HD 97048 are consistent with H2 gas at T>2000 K and suggest that the emission observed may be produced by X-ray excitation. The upper limits for the line ratios for HD 100546 are inconclusive. Because the H2 emission is located at large radii, for both sources a thermal emission scenario (i.e., gas heated by collisions with dust) is implausible. We argue that the observation of H2 emission at large radii may be indicative of an extended disk atmosphere at radii >5 AU. This may be explained by a hydrostatic disk in which gas and dust are thermally decoupled or by a disk wind caused by photoevaporation.Comment: Accepted by A&A. 16 pages, 7 figure

Mediterranean Sea response to climate change in an ensemble of twenty first century scenarios

The Mediterranean climate is expected to become warmer and drier during the twenty-first century. Mediterranean Sea response to climate change could be modulated by the choice of the socio-economic scenario as well as the choice of the boundary conditions mainly the Atlantic hydrography, the river runoff and the atmospheric fluxes. To assess and quantify the sensitivity of the Mediterranean Sea to the twenty-first century climate change, a set of numerical experiments was carried out with the regional ocean model NEMOMED8 set up for the Mediterranean Sea. The model is forced by air–sea fluxes derived from the regional climate model ARPEGE-Climate at a 50-km horizontal resolution. Historical simulations representing the climate of the period 1961–2000 were run to obtain a reference state. From this baseline, various sensitivity experiments were performed for the period 2001–2099, following different socio-economic scenarios based on the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. For the A2 scenario, the main three boundary forcings (river runoff, near-Atlantic water hydrography and air–sea fluxes) were changed one by one to better identify the role of each forcing in the way the ocean responds to climate change. In two additional simulations (A1B, B1), the scenario is changed, allowing to quantify the socio-economic uncertainty. Our 6-member scenario simulations display a warming and saltening of the Mediterranean. For the 2070–2099 period compared to 1961–1990, the sea surface temperature anomalies range from +1.73 to +2.97 °C and the SSS anomalies spread from +0.48 to +0.89. In most of the cases, we found that the future Mediterranean thermohaline circulation (MTHC) tends to reach a situation similar to the eastern Mediterranean Transient. However, this response is varying depending on the chosen boundary conditions and socio-economic scenarios. Our numerical experiments suggest that the choice of the near-Atlantic surface water evolution, which is very uncertain in General Circulation Models, has the largest impact on the evolution of the Mediterranean water masses, followed by the choice of the socio-economic scenario. The choice of river runoff and atmospheric forcing both have a smaller impact. The state of the MTHC during the historical period is found to have a large influence on the transfer of surface anomalies toward depth. Besides, subsurface currents are substantially modified in the Ionian Sea and the Balearic region. Finally, the response of thermosteric sea level ranges from +34 to +49 cm (2070–2099 vs. 1961–1990), mainly depending on the Atlantic forcing

Circumstellar disks and planets. Science cases for next-generation optical/infrared long-baseline interferometers

We present a review of the interplay between the evolution of circumstellar disks and the formation of planets, both from the perspective of theoretical models and dedicated observations. Based on this, we identify and discuss fundamental questions concerning the formation and evolution of circumstellar disks and planets which can be addressed in the near future with optical and infrared long-baseline interferometers. Furthermore, the importance of complementary observations with long-baseline (sub)millimeter interferometers and high-sensitivity infrared observatories is outlined.Comment: 83 pages; Accepted for publication in "Astronomy and Astrophysics Review"; The final publication is available at http://www.springerlink.co