On moment‐length scaling of large strike slip earthquakes and the strength of faults

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/94719/1/grl15585.pd

Rank-Ordering Statistics of Extreme Events: Application to the Distribution of Large Earthquakes

Rank-ordering statistics provides a perspective on the rare, largest elements of a population, whereas the statistics of cumulative distributions are dominated by the more numerous small events. The exponent of a power law distribution can be determined with good accuracy by rank-ordering statistics from the observation of only a few tens of the largest events. Using analytical results and synthetic tests, we quantify the systematic and the random errors. We also study the case of a distribution defined by two branches, each having a power law distribution, one defined for the largest events and the other for smaller events, with application to the World-Wide (Harvard) and Southern California earthquake catalogs. In the case of the Harvard moment catalog, we make more precise earlier claims of the existence of a transition of the earthquake magnitude distribution between small and large earthquakes; the $b$-values are $b_2 = 2.3 \pm 0.3$ for large shallow earthquakes and $b_1 = 1.00 \pm 0.02$ for smaller shallow earthquakes. However, the cross-over magnitude between the two distributions is ill-defined. The data available at present do not provide a strong constraint on the cross-over which has a $50\%$ probability of being between magnitudes $7.1$ and $7.6$ for shallow earthquakes; this interval may be too conservatively estimated. Thus, any influence of a universal geometry of rupture on the distribution of earthquakes world-wide is ill-defined at best. We caution that there is no direct evidence to confirm the hypothesis that the large-moment branch is indeed a power law. In fact, a gamma distribution fits the entire suite of earthquake moments from the smallest to the largest satisfactorily. There is no evidence that the earthquakes of the Southern California catalog have a distribution with tw

Towards Inverting Seismic Waveform Data for Temperature and Composition in the Earth's Upper Mantle

B: Unraveling the physical state of the upper mantle, including the transition zone, is one of the key factors for understanding the Earth's mantle dynamics. Knowledge of mantle temperature and composition is mainly based on the interpretation of seismological observations based on insights from mineral physics. Despite the progress made to image the 3-D seismic structure of the upper mantle, its interpretation in terms of physical parameters is still challenging and it requires a truly interdisciplinary approach. Due to the better knowledge of the elastic and anelastic properties of mantle minerals at high temperatures and pressures, such an approach is now becoming feasible. We propose a new waveform inversion procedure, based on a formalism previously developed at Berkeley for global elastic and anelastic tomography, and using our existing collection of long-period fundamental and higher mode surface waveforms. Here, we incorporate mineral physics data at an early stage of the process to directly map lateral variations in temperature and composition, using recent estimates of the temperature and composition derivatives of seismic velocities (∂lnV/∂lnT,C). Anelasticity introduces a non-linear dependence of the seismic velocities with temperature throughout the upper mantle, and phase-transitions confer a non-linear character to the compositional derivatives as well, therefore the kernels should be re-computed after each iteration of the inversion. We discuss ways to address the non-linearities, as well as uncertainties in the partial derivatives. In addition to constraining the lateral variations in temperature or composition, the models can have implications on the average structure of the upper mantle. The most-common accepted physical 1-D structure had problems to satisfactorily fit seismic travel time data, requiring a slower TZ to improve the fit. However, these data do not have sufficient coverage (and resolution) in the TZ. A complementary outcome of our models will be to shed light on whether the seismic data require a modification of the physical structure in the transition zone and if the three-dimensional heterogeneity introduces a significant shift of the average physical structure away from adiabatic pyrolite

Geo-neutrinos: A systematic approach to uncertainties and correlations

Geo-neutrinos emitted by heat-producing elements (U, Th and K) represent a unique probe of the Earth interior. The characterization of their fluxes is subject, however, to rather large and highly correlated uncertainties. The geochemical covariance of the U, Th and K abundances in various Earth reservoirs induces positive correlations among the associated geo-neutrino fluxes, and between these and the radiogenic heat. Mass-balance constraints in the Bulk Silicate Earth (BSE) tend instead to anti-correlate the radiogenic element abundances in complementary reservoirs. Experimental geo-neutrino observables may be further (anti)correlated by instrumental effects. In this context, we propose a systematic approach to covariance matrices, based on the fact that all the relevant geo-neutrino observables and constraints can be expressed as linear functions of the U, Th and K abundances in the Earth's reservoirs (with relatively well-known coefficients). We briefly discuss here the construction of a tentative "geo-neutrino source model" (GNSM) for the U, Th, and K abundances in the main Earth reservoirs, based on selected geophysical and geochemical data and models (when available), on plausible hypotheses (when possible), and admittedly on arbitrary assumptions (when unavoidable). We use then the GNSM to make predictions about several experiments ("forward approach"), and to show how future data can constrain - a posteriori - the error matrix of the model itself ("backward approach"). The method may provide a useful statistical framework for evaluating the impact and the global consistency of prospective geo-neutrino measurements and Earth models.Comment: 17 pages, including 4 figures. To appear on "Earth, Moon, and Planets," Special Issue on "Neutrino Geophysics," Proceedings of Neutrino Science 2005 (Honolulu, Hawaii, Dec. 2005

A Plan for a Long-Term, Automated, Broadband Seismic Monitoring Network on the Global Seafloor

Establishing an extensive and highly durable, long‐term, seafloor network of autonomous broadband seismic stations to complement the land‐based Global Seismographic Network has been a goal of seismologists for decades. Seismic signals, chiefly the vibrations from earthquakes but also signals generated by storms and other environmental processes, have been processed from land‐based seismic stations to build intriguing but incomplete images of the Earth’s interior. Seismologists have mapped structures such as tectonic plates and other crustal remnants sinking deep into the mantle to obtain information on their chemical composition and physical state; but resolution of these structures from land stations is not globally uniform. Because the global surface is two‐thirds ocean, increasing the number of seismic stations located in the oceans is critical for better resolution of the Earth’s interior and tectonic structures. A recommendation for a long‐term seafloor seismic station pilot experiment is presented here. The overarching instrumentation goal of a pilot experiment is performance that will lead to the installation of a large number of long‐term autonomous ocean‐bottom seismic stations. The payoff of a network of stations separated from one another by a few hundred kilometers under the global oceans would be greatly refined resolution of the Earth’s interior at all depths. A second prime result would be enriched understanding of large‐earthquake rupture processes in both oceanic and continental plates. The experiment would take advantage of newly available technologies such as robotic wave gliders that put an affordable autonomous prototype within reach. These technologies would allow data to be relayed to satellites from seismometers that are deployed on the seafloor with long‐lasting, rechargeable batteries. Two regions are presented as promising arenas for such a prototype seafloor seismic station. One site is the central North Atlantic Ocean, and the other high‐interest locale is the central South Pacific Ocean

XRCC2 R188H (rs3218536), XRCC3 T241M (rs861539) and R243H (rs77381814) single nucleotide polymorphisms in cervical cancer risk

Human Papillomavirus (HPV) is the main cause of cervical cancer and its precursor lesions. Transformation may be induced by several mechanisms, including oncogene activation and genome instability. Individual differences in DNA damage recognition and repair have been hypothesized to influence cervical cancer risk. The aim of this study was to evaluate whether the double strand break gene polymorphisms XRCC2 R188H G>A (rs3218536), XRCC3 T241M C>T (rs861539) and R243H G>A (rs77381814) are associated to cervical cancer in Argentine women. A case control study consisting of 322 samples (205 cases and 117 controls) was carried out. HPV DNA detection was performed by PCR and genotyping of positive samples by EIA (enzyme immunoassay). XRCC2 and 3 polymorphisms were determined by pyrosequencing. The HPV-adjusted odds ratio (OR) of XRCC2 188 GG/AG genotypes was OR = 2.4 (CI = 1.1-4.9, p = 0.02) for cervical cancer. In contrast, there was no increased risk for cervical cancer with XRCC3 241 TT/CC genotypes (OR = 0.48; CI = 0.2-1; p = 0.1) or XRCC3 241 CT/CC (OR = 0.87; CI = 0.52-1.4; p = 0.6). Regarding XRCC3 R243H, the G allele was almost fixed in the population studied. In conclusion, although the sample size was modest, the present data indicate a statistical association between cervical cancer and XRCC2 R188H polymorphism. Future studies are needed to confirm these findings.Fil: Perez, Luis Orlando. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico CONICET- La Plata. Instituto de Genética Veterinaria "Ing. Fernando Noel Dulout". Universidad Nacional de La Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Veterinarias. Instituto de Genética Veterinaria; ArgentinaFil: Crivaro, Andrea Natalia. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico CONICET- La Plata. Instituto de Genética Veterinaria "Ing. Fernando Noel Dulout". Universidad Nacional de La Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Veterinarias. Instituto de Genética Veterinaria; ArgentinaFil: Barbisan, Gisela. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico CONICET- La Plata. Instituto de Genética Veterinaria "Ing. Fernando Noel Dulout". Universidad Nacional de La Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Veterinarias. Instituto de Genética Veterinaria; ArgentinaFil: Poleri, Lucía Belén. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico CONICET- La Plata. Instituto de Genética Veterinaria "Ing. Fernando Noel Dulout". Universidad Nacional de La Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Veterinarias. Instituto de Genética Veterinaria; ArgentinaFil: Golijow, Carlos Daniel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico CONICET- La Plata. Instituto de Genética Veterinaria "Ing. Fernando Noel Dulout". Universidad Nacional de La Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Veterinarias. Instituto de Genética Veterinaria; Argentin

CP violating neutrino oscillation and uncertainties in Earth matter density

We propose a statistical formulation to estimate possible errors in long baseline neutrino oscillation experiments caused by uncertainties in the Earth matter density. A quantitative investigation of the effect is made on the CP asymmetry in future neutrino factory experiments.Comment: Latex, 10 pages, 5 figure

The European 2015 drought from a hydrological perspective

In 2015 large parts of Europe were affected by drought. In this paper, we analyze the hydrological footprint (dynamic development over space and time) of the drought of 2015 in terms of both severity (magnitude) and spatial extent and compare it to the extreme drought of 2003. Analyses are based on a range of low flow and hydrological drought indices derived for about 800 streamflow records across Europe, collected in a community effort based on a common protocol. We compare the hydrological footprints of both events with the meteorological footprints, in order to learn from similarities and differences of both perspectives and to draw conclusions for drought management. The region affected by hydrological drought in 2015 differed somewhat from the drought of 2003, with its center located more towards eastern Europe. In terms of low flow magnitude, a region surrounding the Czech Republic was the most affected, with summer low flows that exhibited return intervals of 100 years and more. In terms of deficit volumes, the geographical center of the event was in southern Germany, where the drought lasted a particularly long time. A detailed spatial and temporal assessment of the 2015 event showed that the particular behavior in these regions was partly a result of diverging wetness preconditions in the studied catchments. Extreme droughts emerged where preconditions were particularly dry. In regions with wet preconditions, low flow events developed later and tended to be less severe. For both the 2003 and 2015 events, the onset of the hydrological drought was well correlated with the lowest flow recorded during the event (low flow magnitude), pointing towards a potential for early warning of the severity of streamflow drought. Time series of monthly drought indices (both streamflow- and climate-based indices) showed that meteorological and hydrological events developed differently in space and time, both in terms of extent and severity (magnitude). These results emphasize that drought is a hazard which leaves different footprints on the various components of the water cycle at different spatial and temporal scales. The difference in the dynamic development of meteorological and hydrological drought also implies that impacts on various water-use sectors and river ecology cannot be informed by climate indices alone. Thus, an assessment of drought impacts on water resources requires hydrological data in addition to drought indices based solely on climate data. The transboundary scale of the event also suggests that additional efforts need to be undertaken to make timely pan-European hydrological assessments more operational in the future

Separation and Determination of Fatty Acids from Lipid Fractions by High-Performance Liquid Chromatography: Cholesterol Esters of Umbilical Cord Arteries

Preeclampsia is accompanied by an extensive remodeling of the extracellular matrix of umbilical cord. It is associated with an increase in collagen content in the umbilical cord artery. Furthermore, preeclampsia distinctly reduces proteolytic and gelatinolytic activity, especially after activation with various agents