Geomagnetic Semiannual Variation Is Not Overestimated and Is Not an Artifact of Systematic Solar Hemispheric Asymmetry

Mursula et al. [2011] (MTL11) suggest that there is a 22-year variation in solar wind activity that coupled with the variation in heliographic latitude of the Earth during the year, gives rise to an apparent semiannual variation of geomagnetic activity in averages obtained over several solar cycles. They conclude that the observed semiannual variation is seriously overestimated and is largely an artifact of this inferred 22-year variation. We show: (1) that there is no systematically alternating annual variation of geomagnetic activity or of the solar driver, changing with the polarity of the solar polar fields, (2) that the universal time variation of geomagnetic activity at all times have the characteristic imprint of the equinoctial hypothesis rather than that of the axial hypothesis required by the suggestion of MTL11, and (3) that the semiannual variation is not an artifact, is not overestimated, and does not need revision.Comment: Submitted to GR

Optimising the management of vaginal discharge syndrome in Bulgaria: cost effectiveness of four clinical algorithms with risk assessment

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the performance and cost effectiveness of the WHO recommendations of incorporating risk-assessment scores and population prevalence of Neisseria gonorrhoeae (NG) and Chlamydia trachomatis (CT) into vaginal discharge syndrome (VDS) algorithms. METHODS: Non-pregnant women presenting with VDS were recruited at a non-governmental sexual health clinic in Sofia, Bulgaria. NG and CT were diagnosed by PCR and vaginal infections by microscopy. Risk factors for NG/CT were identified in multivariable analysis. Four algorithms based on different combinations of behavioural factors, clinical findings and vaginal microscopy were developed. Performance of each algorithm was evaluated for detecting vaginal and cervical infections separately. Cost effectiveness was based on cost per patient treated and cost per case correctly treated. Sensitivity analysis explored the influence of NG/CT prevalence on cost effectiveness. RESULTS: 60% (252/420) of women had genital infections, with 9.5% (40/423) having NG/CT. Factors associated with NG/CT included new and multiple sexual partners in the past 3 months, symptomatic partner, childlessness and >or=10 polymorphonuclear cells per field on vaginal microscopy. For NG/CT detection, the algorithm that relied solely on behavioural risk factors was less sensitive but more specific than those that included speculum examination or microscopy but had higher correct-treatment rate and lower over-treatment rates. The cost per true case treated using a combination of risk factors, speculum examination and microscopy was euro 24.08. A halving and tripling of NG/CT prevalence would have approximately the inverse impact on the cost-effectiveness estimates. CONCLUSIONS: Management of NG/CT in Bulgaria was improved by the use of a syndromic approach that included risk scores. Approaches that did not rely on microscopy lost sensitivity but were more cost effective

Effects of solar wind magnetosphere coupling recorded at different geomagnetic latitudes: Separation of directly-driven and storage/release systems

The effect on geomagnetic activity of solar wind speed, compared with that of the strength of the interplanetary magnetic field, differs with geomagnetic latitude. In this study we construct a new index based on monthly standard deviations in the H-component of the geomagnetic field for all geomagnetic latitudes. We demonstrate that for this index the response at auroral regions correlates best with interplanetary coupling functions which include the solar wind speed while mid- and low-latitude regions respond to variations in the interplanetary magnetic field strength. These results are used to isolate the responsible geomagnetic current systems

Statistical Asynchronous Regression: Determining the Relationship Between two Quantities that are not Measured Simultaneously

We introduce the Statistical Asynchronous Regression (SAR) method: a technique for determining a relationship between two time varying quantities without simultaneous measurements of both quantities. We require that there is a time invariant, monotonic function Y = u(X) relating the two quantities, Y and X. In order to determine u(X), we only need to know the statistical distributions of X and Y. We show that u(X) is the change of variables that converts the distribution of X into the distribution of Y, while conserving probability. We describe an algorithm for implementing this method and apply it to several example distributions. We also demonstrate how the method can separate spatial and temporal variations from a time series of energetic electron flux measurements made by a spacecraft in geosynchronous orbit. We expect this method will be useful to the general problem of spacecraft instrument calibration. We also suggest some applications of the SAR method outside of space physics.Comment: 27 pages, 10 figures, stronger motivations and rewriting to make the paper more accessible to a general audience. in press in J. Geophys. Res. (Space Physics

Estimating prevalence trends in adult gonorrhoea and syphilis in low- and middle-income countries with the Spectrum-STI model: results for Zimbabwe and Morocco from 1995 to 2016.

OBJECTIVE: To develop a tool for estimating national trends in adult prevalence of sexually transmitted infections by low- and middle-income countries, using standardised, routinely collected programme indicator data. METHODS: The Spectrum-STI model fits time trends in the prevalence of active syphilis through logistic regression on prevalence data from antenatal clinic-based surveys, routine antenatal screening and general population surveys where available, weighting data by their national coverage and representativeness. Gonorrhoea prevalence was fitted as a moving average on population surveys (from the country, neighbouring countries and historic regional estimates), with trends informed additionally by urethral discharge case reports, where these were considered to have reasonably stable completeness. Prevalence data were adjusted for diagnostic test performance, high-risk populations not sampled, urban/rural and male/female prevalence ratios, using WHO's assumptions from latest global and regional-level estimations. Uncertainty intervals were obtained by bootstrap resampling. RESULTS: Estimated syphilis prevalence (in men and women) declined from 1.9% (95% CI 1.1% to 3.4%) in 2000 to 1.5% (1.3% to 1.8%) in 2016 in Zimbabwe, and from 1.5% (0.76% to 1.9%) to 0.55% (0.30% to 0.93%) in Morocco. At these time points, gonorrhoea estimates for women aged 15-49 years were 2.5% (95% CI 1.1% to 4.6%) and 3.8% (1.8% to 6.7%) in Zimbabwe; and 0.6% (0.3% to 1.1%) and 0.36% (0.1% to 1.0%) in Morocco, with male gonorrhoea prevalences 14% lower than female prevalence. CONCLUSIONS: This epidemiological framework facilitates data review, validation and strategic analysis, prioritisation of data collection needs and surveillance strengthening by national experts. We estimated ongoing syphilis declines in both Zimbabwe and Morocco. For gonorrhoea, time trends were less certain, lacking recent population-based surveys

Morphology, geographical variation and the subspecies of marsh tit Poecile palustris in Britain and central Europe

Capsule: All British Marsh Tits belong to subspecies Poecile palustris dresseri, being smaller than nominate P. p. palustris of central Europe. Aims: Determining the subspecies of Marsh Tit in Britain to test whether ssp. P. p. palustris occurs in northern England and Scotland, by assessing regional variation in size compared with central European birds. Methods: 1147 wing length and 250 tail length measurements from 953 Marsh Tits were compared between eight British locations to test for regional variation. Biometrics were compared between birds from Britain and six locations within the continental European range of ssp. palustris. Results: There was no regional variation in wing or tail lengths among British Marsh Tits, indicating that all resident birds belong to ssp. dresseri. There was no evidence supporting the existence of ssp. palustris in northern England. British birds were significantly smaller than those from continental Europe, with proportionately shorter tails, consistent across all age and sex classes. Conclusion: All British Marsh Tits should be considered as ssp. dresseri, with ssp. palustris being limited to continental Europe. With no evidence of regional variation in size within Britain, reliable sexing methods based on biometrics could be applied in demographic studies throughout the country

On the usage of geomagnetic indices for data selection in internal field modelling

We present a review on geomagnetic indices describing global geomagnetic storm activity (Kp, am, Dst and dDst/dt) and on indices designed to characterize high latitude currents and substorms (PC and AE-indices and their variants). The focus in our discussion is in main field modelling, where indices are primarily used in data selection criteria for weak magnetic activity. The publicly available extensive data bases of index values are used to derive joint conditional Probability Distribution Functions (PDFs) for different pairs of indices in order to investigate their mutual consistency in describing quiet conditions. This exercise reveals that Dst and its time derivative yield a similar picture as Kp on quiet conditions as determined with the conditions typically used in internal field modelling. Magnetic quiescence at high latitudes is typically searched with the help of Merging Electric Field (MEF) as derived from solar wind observations. We use in our PDF analysis the PC-index as a proxy for MEF and estimate the magnetic activity level at auroral latitudes with the AL-index. With these boundary conditions we conclude that the quiet time conditions that are typically used in main field modelling (, and ) correspond to weak auroral electrojet activity quite well: Standard size substorms are unlikely to happen, but other types of activations (e.g. pseudo breakups ) can take place, when these criteria prevail. Although AE-indices have been designed to probe electrojet activity only in average conditions and thus their performance is not optimal during weak activity, we note that careful data selection with advanced AE-variants may appear to be the most practical way to lower the elevated RMS-values which still exist in the residuals between modeled and observed values at high latitudes. Recent initiatives to upgrade the AE-indices, either with a better coverage of observing stations and improved baseline corrections (the SuperMAG concept) or with higher accuracy in pinpointing substorm activity (the Midlatitude Positive Bay-index) will most likely be helpful in these efforts.</p

Prevalence of anogenital HPV infection, related disease and risk factors among HIV-infected men in inner-city Johannesburg, South Africa: baseline findings from a cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Persistent high-risk human papillomavirus (HR-HPV) infection is associated with the development of anogenital cancers, particularly in men living with HIV (MLWH). We describe the prevalence of anogenital HPV infection, abnormal anal cytology and anogenital warts (AGWs) in MLWH in Johannesburg, and explore whether HPV infection and receipt of antiretroviral treatment is associated with detection of abnormal anal cytology and AGWs. METHODS: We enrolled a cohort of 304 sexually-active MLWH ≥18 years, who completed a questionnaire and physical examination. Genital swabs were collected from all men and intra-anal swabs from 250 (82%). Swabs were tested for HPV DNA and genotypes, and anal smears graded using the Bethesda classification. Factors associated with anogenital disease were assessed by logistic regression models. RESULTS: Two thirds were receiving antiretroviral treatment, for a median 33 months (IQR = 15-58) and 54% were HIV-virologically suppressed. Only 5% reported ever having sex with men. Among 283 genital swabs with valid results, 79% had any HPV, 52% had HR-HPV and 27% had >1 HR-HPV infection. By comparison, 39% of the 227 valid intra-anal swabs had detectable HPV, 25% had any HR-HPV and 7% >1 HR infection. While most anal smears were normal (51%), 20% had ASCUS and 29% were LSIL. No cases had HSIL or cancer. Infection with >1 HR type (adjusted OR [aOR] = 2.39; 95%CI = 1.02-5.58) and alpha-9 types (aOR = 3.98; 95%CI = 1.42-11.16) were associated with having abnormal cytology. Prevalence of AGWs was 12%. Infection with any LR type (aOR = 41.28; 95%CI = 13.57-125.62), >1 LR type (aOR = 4.14; 95%CI = 1.60-10.69), being <6 months on antiretroviral treatment (aOR = 6.90; 95%CI = 1.63-29.20) and having a CD4+ count <200 cells/μL (aOR = 5.48; 95%CI: 1.60-18.78) were associated with having AGWs. CONCLUSIONS: In this population, anogenital HR-HPV infection and associated low-grade disease is common, but severe anal dysplasia was not detected. Findings reinforce the need for HPV vaccination in men for preventing both AGWs and HR-HPV infection. Given the absence of anal HSILs, however, the findings do not support the use of anal screening programmes in this population