Complexity in forecasting and predictive models

Te challenge of this special issue has been to know the state of the problem related to forecasting modeling and the creation of a model to forecast the future behavior that supports decision making by supporting real-world applications. Tis issue has been highlighted by the quality of its research work on the critical importance of advanced analytical methods, such as neural networks, sof computing, evolutionary algorithms, chaotic models, cellular automata, agent-based models, and fnite mixture minimum squares (FIMIX-PLS).info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Dividend Policy of German Firms

German firms pay out a lower proportion of their cash flows than UK and US firms.However, on a published profits basis, the pattern is reversed.Company law provisions and accounting policies account for these conflicting results.A partial adjustment model is used to estimate the implicit target payout ratio and the speed of adjustment of dividends towards a long run target payout ratio. We find that German firms do not base their dividend decisions on published earnings, but on cash flows.The reasons for the use of a cash flow-based payout policy are: (i) published earnings figures do not correctly reflect corporate performance as German firms tend to retain a significant part of their earnings to build up legal reserves, (ii) the conservative nature of German accounting policies, (iii) published earnings are subject to a higher degree of smoothing than cash flows.Regarding the speed of adjustment of dividends towards the long term target payout ratio, UK and US companies only slowly adjust their dividend policy whereas German are more willing to cut the dividend in the wake of a temporary decrease in profitability.This causes a higher degree of 'discreteness' in the dividends-pershare time series as opposed to the 'smoothness' (i.e., frequent annual small adjustments in the dividend per share) observed in the US and the UK.Dividend policy;payout policy;Lintner dividend model;dividend smoothing;partial adjustment model;corporate governance

When do German Firms Change their Dividends?

Anecdotal evidence suggests that the dividend policy of German firms is more flexible than the one of their Anglo-American counterparts.This paper analyses the decision to change the dividend for a panel of 221 German firms from 1984 to 1994.The choice of the period of study is motivated by the fact that at the start of this period there was an economic boom which was followed by a recession.Consistent with the traditional dividend literature, e.g.Lintner (1956), net earnings are key determinants of the decision to change the dividend.However, the study comes up with two findings which are contrary to Lintner (1956) and Miller and Modigliani (1961).First, the level of net earnings is not the only key determinant of the dividend decision, as the occurrence of a loss - whatever its magnitude - has an explanatory power exceeding the one of the level of the loss.Second, dividend cuts or omissions tend to be temporary and the majority of German firms quickly (within two years) revert to their initial dividend level.This stands in marked contrast with DeAngelo et al.(1992) who find that US firms are more likely to reduce their dividend when earnings deteriorate on a permanent basis.Furthermore, the fact that German firms frequently omit and cut their dividend and quickly return to their initial dividend suggests that dividends in Germany have less of a signalling role than dividends in the US and the UK.Our findings also contradict Bhattacharya's (1979) argument that the costs of dividend changes are asymmetric with dividend reductions being more costly to the firm than dividend increases.Finally, we find evidence that firms with banks as their major shareholder are more willing to omit their dividend than firms controlled by other types of shareholder.corporate control;dividend policy;corporate governance;corporate ownership

Existential Psychotherapies: Similarities and Differences Among the Main Branches

Authors agree that a range of different existential therapies exist. However, not much has been written about what is characteristic and distinctive of each existential therapy, and the few claims that have been made are mainly hypothetical. Practitioners from the four main branches of existential therapy were asked about the authors and texts that have most influenced their practice and the practices they considered most characteristic of existential therapy. From all over the world, 29 daseinsanalysts, 82 existential-humanistic, 573 existential-phenomenological, and 303 logotherapy and/or existential analysis practitioners participated in this study. Data show that the scope of influence of an author is pretty much limited to the branch he or she is related to and only a few authors, in particular Frankl and Yalom, influence practitioners from all four branches. Five categories of practice are shared among the main existential branches as the most characteristics of existential therapy, with phenomenological practices being the most shared category: But the frequency of each of these categories of practice differs significantly depending on respondents’ training or affiliated branch. Data corroborate the idea of different existential therapies, with logotherapy and/or existential analysis being the most markedly different branch of them all

Effect of the curing time on the numerical modelling of the behaviour of a chemically stabilised soft soil

The ability of the Modified Cam Clay (MCC) model combined with the Von Mises (VM) model, considering the effect of curing time on the enhancement of the mechanical properties of a chemically stabilised soft soil is examined. The evolution of the strength and stiffness over time is based on the results of undrained compressive strength (UCS) tests carried out for different curing times (from 28 days to 360 days). Initially, the MCC/VM models associated with the effect of curing time are validated by CIU triaxial tests, for curing times of 28 and 90 days. Finally, the behaviour of an embankment built on a soft soil reinforced with deep mixing columns is predicted based on the previously validated models. The results show that the increase of curing time of the DMCs slightly decreases the settlement obtained with a curing time of 28 days

Accurate free and forced rotational motions of rigid Venus

% context :The precise and accurate modelling of a terrestrial planet like Venus is an exciting and challenging topic, all the more interesting since it can be compared with that of the Earth for which such a modelling has already been achieved at the milliarcsecond level % aims: We want to complete a previous study (Cottereau and Souchay, 2009), by determining at the milliarcsecond level the polhody, i.e. the torque-free motion of the axis of angular momentum of a rigid Venus in a body-fixed frame, as well as the nutation of its third axis of figure in space, which is fundamental from an observational point of view. results :In a first part we have computed the polhody, i.e. the respective free rotational motion of the axis of angular momentum of Venus with respect to a body-fixed frame. We have shown that this motion is highly elliptical, with a very long period of 525 cy to be compared with 430 d for the Earth. This is due to the very small dynamical flattening of Venus in comparison with our planet. In a second part we have computed precisely the Oppolzer terms which allow to represent the motion in space of the third Venus figure axis with respect to Venus angular momentum axis, under the influence of the solar gravitational torque. We have determined the corresponding tables of coefficients of nutation of the third figure axis both in longitude and in obliquity due to the Sun, which are of the same order of amplitude as for the Earth. We have shown that the coefficients of nutation for the third figure axis are significantly different from those of the angular momentum axis on the contrary of the Earth. Our analytical results have been validated by a numerical integration which revealed the indirect planetary effects.Comment: 14 pages, 11 figures, accepted for publication in section 11. Celestial mechanics and astrometry of Astronomy and Astrophysics (27/02/2010

A Serious Complication of Uterine Artery Embolisation

Uterine artery embolisation has been used as a therapeutic alternative for symptomatic uterine myomas. It is considered a safe and effective procedure, with very few cases published involving complications. The authors present a case of a 35-year-old nulliparous woman with an intramural myoma with 161x143x85mm, submitted to an uterine artery embolisation complicated by uterine necrosis. A hysterectomy was performed. This casereport reinforces the idea that artery embolization is not a riskfree procedure and serious complications may occur. Therefore, patients should be carefully selected