Recent progress in understanding climate thresholds: ice sheets, the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, tropical forests and responses to ocean acidification

This article reviews recent scientific progress, relating to four major systems that could exhibit threshold behaviour: ice sheets, the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), tropical forests and ecosystem responses to ocean acidification. The focus is on advances since the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC AR5). The most significant developments in each component are identified by synthesizing input from multiple experts from each field. For ice sheets, some degree of irreversible loss (timescales of millennia) of part of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) may have already begun, but the rate and eventual magnitude of this irreversible loss is uncertain. The observed AMOC overturning has decreased from 2004–2014, but it is unclear at this stage whether this is forced or is internal variability. New evidence from experimental and natural droughts has given greater confidence that tropical forests are adversely affected by drought. The ecological and socio-economic impacts of ocean acidification are expected to greatly increase over the range from today’s annual value of around 400, up to 650 ppm CO2 in the atmosphere (reached around 2070 under RCP8.5), with the rapid development of aragonite undersaturation at high latitudes affecting calcifying organisms. Tropical coral reefs are vulnerable to the interaction of ocean acidification and temperature rise, and the rapidity of those changes, with severe losses and risks to survival at 2 °C warming above pre-industrial levels. Across the four systems studied, however, quantitative evidence for a difference in risk between 1.5 and 2 °C warming above pre-industrial levels is limited

An airborne regional carbon balance for central amazonia

We obtained regional estimates of surface CO2 exchange rates using atmospheric boundary layer budgeting techniques above tropical forest near Manaus, Brazil. Comparisons were made with simultaneous measurements from two eddy covariance towers below. Although there was good agreement for daytime measurements, large differences emerged for integrating periods dominated by the night-time fluxes. These results suggest that a systematic underestimation of night time respiratory effluxes may be responsible for the high Amazonian carbon sink suggested by several previous eddy covariance studies. Large CO2 fluxes from riverine sources or high respiratory losses from recently disturbed forests do not need to be invoked in order to balance the carbon budget of the Amazon. Our results do not, however, discount some contribution of these processes to the overall Amazon carbon budget

The role of civil society actors in peacemaking : the case of Guatemala

This article builds upon recent scholarship in critical peace studies that focuses on the role of civil society actors in formal peacemaking processes, in short, peace talks, and post-conflict peacebuilding. The article specifically explores the role of civil society actors in the Guatemalan peace process. The research addresses the possible tensions and potential complementarities in processes where civil society enjoys a mandated role in centralised, formal peace negotiations carried out between the state and armed actors in talks levied within the liberal peace framework. In the case of Guatemala, non-state actors participated to an unprecedented extent in the peace negotiations, and Guatemala has not relapsed into armed conflict. However, post-conflict Guatemala is a violent and unstable country. Consequently, the study challenges the assumption that peacemaking is necessarily more successful in those instances where provisions have been established to guarantee the participation of civil society.PostprintPeer reviewe

Linking hydraulic traits to tropical forest function in a size-structured and trait-driven model (TFS v.1-Hydro)

Forest ecosystem models based on heuristic water stress functions poorly predict tropical forest response to drought partly because they do not capture the diversity of hydraulic traits (including variation in tree size) observed in tropical forests. We developed a continuous porous media approach to modeling plant hydraulics in which all parameters of the constitutive equations are biologically interpretable and measurable plant hydraulic traits (e.g., turgor loss point πtlp, bulk elastic modulus ϵ, hydraulic capacitance Cft, xylem hydraulic conductivity ks,max, water potential at 50% loss of conductivity for both xylem (P50,x) and stomata (P50,gs), and the leafg: sapwood area ratio Al: As). We embedded this plant hydraulics model within a trait forest simulator (TFS) that models light environments of individual trees and their upper boundary conditions (transpiration), as well as providing a means for parameterizing variation in hydraulic traits among individuals. We synthesized literature and existing databases to parameterize all hydraulic traits as a function of stem and leaf traits, including wood density (WD), leaf mass per area (LMA), and photosynthetic capacity (Amax), and evaluated the coupled model (called TFS v.1-Hydro) predictions, against observed diurnal and seasonal variability in stem and leaf water potential as well as stand-scaled sap flux. Our hydraulic trait synthesis revealed coordination among leaf and xylem hydraulic traits and statistically significant relationships of most hydraulic traits with more easily measured plant traits. Using the most informative empirical trait-trait relationships derived from this synthesis, TFS v.1-Hydro successfully captured individual variation in leaf and stem water potential due to increasing tree size and light environment, with model representation of hydraulic architecture and plant traits exerting primary and secondary controls, respectively, on the fidelity of model predictions. The plant hydraulics model made substantial improvements to simulations of total ecosystem transpiration. Remaining uncertainties and limitations of the trait paradigm for plant hydraulics modeling are highlighted

Variation in stem mortality rates determines patterns of above-ground biomass in Amazonian forests: implications for dynamic global vegetation models

This is the final version of the article. Available from Wiley via the DOI in this record.Understanding the processes that determine above-ground biomass (AGB) in Amazonian forests is important for predicting the sensitivity of these ecosystems to environmental change and for designing and evaluating dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs). AGB is determined by inputs from woody productivity [woody net primary productivity (NPP)] and the rate at which carbon is lost through tree mortality. Here, we test whether two direct metrics of tree mortality (the absolute rate of woody biomass loss and the rate of stem mortality) and/or woody NPP, control variation in AGB among 167 plots in intact forest across Amazonia. We then compare these relationships and the observed variation in AGB and woody NPP with the predictions of four DGVMs. The observations show that stem mortality rates, rather than absolute rates of woody biomass loss, are the most important predictor of AGB, which is consistent with the importance of stand size structure for determining spatial variation in AGB. The relationship between stem mortality rates and AGB varies among different regions of Amazonia, indicating that variation in wood density and height/diameter relationships also influences AGB. In contrast to previous findings, we find that woody NPP is not correlated with stem mortality rates and is weakly positively correlated with AGB. Across the four models, basin-wide average AGB is similar to the mean of the observations. However, the models consistently overestimate woody NPP and poorly represent the spatial patterns of both AGB and woody NPP estimated using plot data. In marked contrast to the observations, DGVMs typically show strong positive relationships between woody NPP and AGB. Resolving these differences will require incorporating forest size structure, mechanistic models of stem mortality and variation in functional composition in DGVMs.This paper is a product of the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme AMAZALERT project (282664). The field data used in this study have been generated by the RAINFOR network, which has been supported by a Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation grant, the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme projects 283080, ‘GEOCARBON’; and 282664, ‘AMAZALERT’; ERC grant ‘Tropical Forests in the Changing Earth System’), and Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) Urgency, Consortium and Standard Grants ‘AMAZONICA’ (NE/F005806/1), ‘TROBIT’ (NE/D005590/1) and ‘Niche Evolution of South American Trees’ (NE/I028122/1). Additional data were included from the Tropical Ecology Assessment and Monitoring (TEAM) Network – a collaboration between Conservation International, the Missouri Botanical Garden, the Smithsonian Institution and the Wildlife Conservation Society, and partly funded by these institutions, the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation, and other donors. Fieldwork was also partially supported by Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico of Brazil (CNPq), project Programa de Pesquisas Ecológicas de Longa Duração (PELD-403725/2012-7). A.R. acknowledges funding from the Helmholtz Alliance ‘Remote Sensing and Earth System Dynamics’; L.P., M.P.C. E.A. and M.T. are partially funded by the EU FP7 project ‘ROBIN’ (283093), with co-funding for E.A. from the Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs (KB-14-003-030); B.C. [was supported in part by the US DOE (BER) NGEE-Tropics project (subcontract to LANL). O.L.P. is supported by an ERC Advanced Grant and is a Royal Society-Wolfson Research Merit Award holder. P.M. acknowledges support from ARC grant FT110100457 and NERC grants NE/J011002/1, and T.R.B. acknowledges support from a Leverhulme Trust Research Fellowship

Author Correction: The FLUXNET2015 dataset and the ONEFlux processing pipeline for eddy covariance data

The following authors were omitted from the original version of this Data Descriptor: Markus Reichstein and Nicolas Vuichard. Both contributed to the code development and N. Vuichard contributed to the processing of the ERA-Interim data downscaling. Furthermore, the contribution of the co-author Frank Tiedemann was re-evaluated relative to the colleague Corinna Rebmann, both working at the same sites, and based on this re-evaluation a substitution in the co-author list is implemented (with Rebmann replacing Tiedemann). Finally, two affiliations were listed incorrectly and are corrected here (entries 190 and 193). The author list and affiliations have been amended to address these omissions in both the HTML and PDF versions

The FLUXNET2015 dataset and the ONEFlux processing pipeline for eddy covariance data.

The FLUXNET2015 dataset provides ecosystem-scale data on CO2, water, and energy exchange between the biosphere and the atmosphere, and other meteorological and biological measurements, from 212 sites around the globe (over 1500 site-years, up to and including year 2014). These sites, independently managed and operated, voluntarily contributed their data to create global datasets. Data were quality controlled and processed using uniform methods, to improve consistency and intercomparability across sites. The dataset is already being used in a number of applications, including ecophysiology studies, remote sensing studies, and development of ecosystem and Earth system models. FLUXNET2015 includes derived-data products, such as gap-filled time series, ecosystem respiration and photosynthetic uptake estimates, estimation of uncertainties, and metadata about the measurements, presented for the first time in this paper. In addition, 206 of these sites are for the first time distributed under a Creative Commons (CC-BY 4.0) license. This paper details this enhanced dataset and the processing methods, now made available as open-source codes, making the dataset more accessible, transparent, and reproducible

Estimativa do índice de área Foliar (IAF) e biomassa em pastagem no estado de Rondônia, Brasil

Medidas mensais da altura da pastagem, biomassa total, variações de biomassa viva e morta, a área específica foliar (SLA) e o Índice de Área de Folha (IAF) de fevereiro de 1999 a janeiro de 2005 na Fazenda Nossa Senhora (FNS) e em Rolim de Moura (RDM) entre Fevereiro a Março de 1999, Rondônia, Brasil. A pastagem predominante é Urochloa brizantha (Hochst. ex A. Rich) R. D. Webster (99% na FNS e 76% em RDM), com pequenas manchas de Urochloa humidicula (Rendle). A altura média anual da grama foi de ~0,16 m. Com o pastejo, o mínimo mensal foi de 0,09 m (estação seca) e máximo de 0,3 m sem pastejo (estação úmida). O IAF, biomassa total, material morto, vivo e SLA tiveram valores médios de 2,5 m2 m-2 , 2202 kg ha-1, 2916 kg ha-1 e 19 m2 kg-1 respectivamente. A média mensal da biomassa foi 4224 kg ha-1 em 2002 e 6667 kg ha-1 em 2003. Grande variação sazonal do material vivo e morto, sendo mais alto o vivo durante a estação úmida (3229 contra 2529 kg ha-1), sendo o morto maior durante a seca (2542 contra 1894 kg ha-1). O nível de água no solo variou de -3,1 a -6,5 m durante as estações. Em médias anuais os IAF foram de 1,4 em 2000 a 2,8 em 2003 e o SLA entre 16,3 m2 kg-1 em 1999 e 20,4 m2 kg-1 em 2001. As observações do Albedo variaram de 0,18 para 0,16 em relação aos altos valores de IAF