Solving Vertical Transport and Chemistry in Air Pollution Models.

For the time integration of stiff transport-chemistry problems from air pollution modelling, standard ODE solvers are not feasible due to the large number of species and the 3D nature. The popular alternative, standard operator splitting, introduces artificial transients for short-lived species. This complicates the chemistry solution, easily causing large errors for such species. In the framework of an operational global air pollution model, we focus on the problem formed by chemistry and vertical transport, which is based on diffusion, cloud-related vertical winds, and wet deposition. Its specific nature leads to full Jacobian matrices, ruling out standard implicit integration. We compare Strang operator splitting with two alternatives: source splitting and an (unsplit) Rosenbrock method with approximate matrix factorization, all having equal computational cost. The comparison is performed with real data. All methods are applied with half-hour time steps, and give good accuracies. Rosenbrock is the most accurate, and source splitting is more accurate than Strang splitting. Splitting errors concentrate in short-lived species sensitive to solar radiation and species with strong emissions and depositions

Measuring the value of life: Exploring a new method for deriving the monetary value of a QALY

Economic evaluations of new health technologies now typically produce an incremental cost per Quality Adjusted Life Year (QALY) value. The QALY is a measure of health benefit that combines length of life with quality of life, where quality of life is assessed on a scale where zero represents a health state equivalent to being dead and one represents full health. The challenge for decision makers, such as the Treasury, is to determine the appropriate size of the healthcare budget. Bodies such as the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellent (NICE) in the U.K. must then determine how much they can afford to pay for a gain of one QALY, while operating under this fixed budget. While there is no fixed cost-effectiveness threshold and each intervention is assessed on a case by case basis, under normal circumstances the threshold will not be below £20,000 and not above £30,000 per QALY. Recent research has sought to determine the monetary value individuals place on a QALY to inform the size of the healthcare budget and the level of the cost-effectiveness threshold. This research has predominantly used Willingness to Pay (WTP) approaches. However, WTP has a number of known problems, most notably its insensitivity to scope. In this paper we present an alternative approach to estimating the monetary value of a QALY (MVQ), which is based upon a Time Trade Off (TTO) exercise of income with health held constant at perfect health. We present the methods and theory underlying this experimental approach and some results from an online feasibility study in the Netherlands

The impact of losses in income due to ill health: does the EQ-5D reflect lost earnings?

Two key questions in the context of UK health policy are: do the published preference indices for EQ-5D reflect the impact of lost earnings? Are we currently implicitly including indirect costs in our analyses? It is crucial to investigate whether or not individuals take into account any possible impact of lost income in health state valuation exercises. If respondents do consider income effects, and these considerations change valuations, then these effects would need to be excluded both under the current NICE reference case, or where productivity costs are included in the numerator to avoid double counting. This study adapts the study design used to generate population value sets for EQ-5D, as first used in the Measurement and Valuation of Health (MVH) Study, and carries out valuations of hypothetical EQ-5D states using Time Trade Off (TTO) exercises through an online survey administered in the Netherlands. Furthermore, this study uses a number of different TTO questions to explore the impact of losses in income on the valuation of hypothetical health states, and to determine the relationship between income and health.EQ-5D; time trade-off; health-related loss of income

The chronology of Anglo-Saxon style pottery in radiocarbon dates:Improving the typo-chronology

In the fourth and fifth centuries AD, the Anglo‐Saxon style was introduced in north‐western Europe. To what extent immigrants contributed to this process for each region is still debated. How and when the Anglo‐Saxon style spread is essential in this debate. Handmade pottery is the most common find category, but so far it can only be dated globally. An earlier and a later style have been postulated and the introduction of this pottery is seemingly not simultaneous in every region. Hitherto this could not be supported by the radiocarbon dates. The present study shows that, with the help of Bayesian modelling, it is possible to substantiate these patterns, which is of utmost importance for understanding migration patterns, contacts and exchange along the southern North Sea coastal regions during this period

Hydroxyl radicals maintain the self-cleansing capacity of the troposphere

International audienceBillions of tons natural and anthropogenic gases are released and subsequently removed from the troposphere each year. Photochemical reactions, initiated by hydroxyl (OH) radicals, oxidise most gases to products which are more easily removed by precipitation and dry deposition at the Earth's surface. Since human-induced pollution emissions strongly affect OH formation and loss, large global changes in OH concentrations are possible. The available evidence as reviewed here, however, indicates that global mean OH has changed relatively little in the past century. Depletion of OH by reactive carbon gases has been compensated by increased OH formation by nitrogen oxides, an act of "inadvertent geo-engineering". Analyses of global mean OH for the past 2.5 decades, however, partly based on methyl chloroform measurements, are ambiguous. Especially the OH trend in the 1990s based on these analyses is at odds with present understanding. Since the discrepancy is dominated by the uncertainty in methyl chloroform emission estimates, improvements of source inventories and model analyses, combined with continued high precision methyl chloroform measurements, will help resolve this problem

Thermoperiodic Control of Hypocotyl Elongation Depends on Auxin-Induced Ethylene Signaling That Controls Downstream PHYTOCHROME INTERACTING FACTOR3 Activity

<p>We show that antiphase light-temperature cycles (negative day-night temperature difference [2DIF]) inhibit hypocotyl growth in Arabidopsis (Arabidopsis thaliana). This is caused by reduced cell elongation during the cold photoperiod. Cell elongation in the basal part of the hypocotyl under 2DIF was restored by both 1-aminocyclopropane-1-carboxylic acid (ACC; ethylene precursor) and auxin, indicating limited auxin and ethylene signaling under 2DIF. Both auxin biosynthesis and auxin signaling were reduced during 2DIF. In addition, expression of several ACC Synthase was reduced under 2DIF but could be restored by auxin application. In contrast, the reduced hypocotyl elongation of ethylene biosynthesis and signaling mutants could not be complemented by auxin, indicating that auxin functions upstream of ethylene. The PHYTOCHROME INTERACTING FACTORS (PIFs) PIF3, PIF4, and PIF5 were previously shown to be important regulators of hypocotyl elongation. We now show that, in contrast to pif4 and pif5 mutants, the reduced hypocotyl length in pif3 cannot be rescued by either ACC or auxin. In line with this, treatment with ethylene or auxin inhibitors reduced hypocotyl elongation in PIF4 overexpressor (PIF4ox) and PIF5ox but not PIF3ox plants. PIF3 promoter activity was strongly reduced under 2DIF but could be restored by auxin application in an ACC Synthase-dependent manner. Combined, these results show that PIF3 regulates hypocotyl length downstream, whereas PIF4 and PIF5 regulate hypocotyl length upstream of an auxin and ethylene cascade. We show that, under 2DIF, lower auxin biosynthesis activity limits the signaling in this pathway, resulting in low activity of PIF3 and short hypocotyls.</p

Eastern Asian emissions of anthropogenic halocarbons deduced from aircraft concentration data

The Montreal Protocol restricts production of ozone-depleting halocarbons worldwide. Enforcement of the protocol has relied mainly on annual government statistics of production and consumption of these compounds (bottom-up approach). We show here that aircraft observations of halocarbon:CO enhancement ratios on regional to continental scales can be used to infer halocarbon emissions, providing independent verification of the bottom-up approach. We apply this top-down approach to aircraft observations of Asian outflow from the TRACE-P mission over the western Pacific (March April 2001) and derive emissions from eastern Asia (China, Japan, and Korea). We derive an eastern Asian carbon tetrachloride (CCl ) source of 21.5 Gg yr , several-fold larger than previous estimates and amounting to 30% of the global budget for this gas. Our emission estimate for CFC-11 from eastern Asia is 50% higher than inventories derived from manufacturing records. Our emission estimates for methyl chloroform (CH ) and CFC-12 are in agreement with existing inventories. For halon 1211 we find only a strong local source originating from the Shanghai area. Our emission estimates for the above gases result in a 40% increase in the ozone depletion potential (ODP) of Asian emissions relative to previous estimates, corresponding to a 10% global increase in ODP

Verification of structural simulation results of metal-based additive manufacturing by means of neutron diffraction

AbstractMetal-based additive processes are characterized by numerous transient physical effects, which exhibit an adverse influence on the production result. Hence, various research approaches for the optimization of e. g. the structural part behavior exist for layered manufacturing. Increasingly, these approaches are based on the finite element analysis to be able to understand the complexity. Hereby it should be considered that the significance of the calculation results depends on the quality of modeling the process in the simulation environment. Based on a selected specimen, the current work demonstrates in which way the numerical accuracy of the residual stress state can be analyzed by utilizing the neutron diffraction. Thereby, different process parameter settings were examined