22 research outputs found
Vulnerability to climate change of United States marine mammal stocks in the western North Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico, and Caribbean.
Climate change and climate variability are affecting marine mammal species and these impacts are projected to continue in the coming decades. Vulnerability assessments provide a framework for evaluating climate impacts over a broad range of species using currently available information. We conducted a trait-based climate vulnerability assessment using expert elicitation for 108 marine mammal stocks and stock groups in the western North Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico, and Caribbean Sea. Our approach combined the exposure (projected change in environmental conditions) and sensitivity (ability to tolerate and adapt to changing conditions) of marine mammal stocks to estimate vulnerability to climate change, and categorize stocks with a vulnerability index. The climate vulnerability score was very high for 44% (n = 47) of these stocks, high for 29% (n = 31), moderate for 20% (n = 22), and low for 7% (n = 8). The majority of stocks (n = 78; 72%) scored very high exposure, whereas 24% (n = 26) scored high, and 4% (n = 4) scored moderate. The sensitivity score was very high for 33% (n = 36) of these stocks, high for 18% (n = 19), moderate for 34% (n = 37), and low for 15% (n = 16). Vulnerability results were summarized for stocks in five taxonomic groups: pinnipeds (n = 4; 25% high, 75% moderate), mysticetes (n = 7; 29% very high, 57% high, 14% moderate), ziphiids (n = 8; 13% very high, 50% high, 38% moderate), delphinids (n = 84; 52% very high, 23% high, 15% moderate, 10% low), and other odontocetes (n = 5; 60% high, 40% moderate). Factors including temperature, ocean pH, and dissolved oxygen were the primary drivers of high climate exposure, with effects mediated through prey and habitat parameters. We quantified sources of uncertainty by bootstrapping vulnerability scores, conducting leave-one-out analyses of individual attributes and individual scorers, and through scoring data quality for each attribute. These results provide information for researchers, managers, and the public on marine mammal responses to climate change to enhance the development of more effective marine mammal management, restoration, and conservation activities that address current and future environmental variation and biological responses due to climate change
Stock profiles and narratives.
Detailed scoring results profile and descriptions of the climate impacts on each stock, including key drivers of vulnerability, exposure, and sensitivity; data quality and gaps; and background information on the stock. (PDF)</p
Raw attribute and factor scores.
Expert scores for each exposure factor and sensitivity attribute aggregated by stock. (CSV)</p
Sensitivity attribute and exposure factor mean scores summarized by taxonomic group.
Box and whisker plots of sensitivity attribute mean scores and exposure factor mean scores for each of the five taxonomic groups. (DOCX)</p
Sensitivity attribute mean scores for all scored stocks.
Sensitivity attribute mean scores for 108 U.S. marine mammal stocks in the western North Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico, and Caribbean Sea. The vertical bar represents the median; the box is bounded by the first and third quartiles; whiskers represent 1.5 times the inter-quartile range; points represent all outlying values.</p
Exposure factor mean scores for all scored stocks.
Exposure factor mean scores for 108 U.S. marine mammal stocks in the western North Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico, and Caribbean Sea. The vertical bar represents the median; the box is bounded by the first and third quartiles; whiskers represent 1.5 times the inter-quartile range; points represent all outlying values.</p
Stocks scored.
List of all marine mammal stocks and stock groupings in the assessment. (XLSX)</p
Response variable ordination used in climate vulnerability assessment of 108 stocks of marine mammals from the western North Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico, and Caribbean Sea.
Response variable ordination used in climate vulnerability assessment of 108 stocks of marine mammals from the western North Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico, and Caribbean Sea.</p
Values used in the NOAA climate change web portal to generate climate exposure maps for 108 marine mammal stocks in the western North Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico, and Caribbean Sea.
Values used in the NOAA climate change web portal to generate climate exposure maps for 108 marine mammal stocks in the western North Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico, and Caribbean Sea.</p