Demand Forecasting for Alcoholic Beverage Distribution

Forecasting demand is one of the biggest challenges in any business, and the ability to make such predictions is an invaluable resource to a company. While difficult, predicting demand for products should be increasingly accessible due to the volume of data collected in businesses and the continuing advancements of machine learning models. This paper presents forecasting models for two vodka products for an alcoholic beverage distributing company located in the United States with the purpose of improving the company’s ability to forecast demand for those products. The results contain exploratory data analysis to determine the most important variables impacting demand, which are time of year and customer. For each of the two products, models were built to predict demand for three major customers. For each product/customer combination, this paper compares time series and deep learning models to a naive model to see if the prediction accuracy can be improved. For five out of six products, the time series models reduced error by 2.5–66.7% compared to the naive models. Also, for one product, a hybrid CNN model developed for this paper outperformed the time series models by 3–10% and reduced error by 49% compared to the naive models

Spermatogenesis-Specific Features of the Meiotic Program in Caenorhabditis elegans

In most sexually reproducing organisms, the fundamental process of meiosis is implemented concurrently with two differentiation programs that occur at different rates and generate distinct cell types, sperm and oocytes. However, little is known about how the meiotic program is influenced by such contrasting developmental programs. Here we present a detailed timeline of late meiotic prophase during spermatogenesis in Caenorhabditis elegans using cytological and molecular landmarks to interrelate changes in chromosome dynamics with germ cell cellularization, spindle formation, and cell cycle transitions. This analysis expands our understanding C. elegans spermatogenesis, as it identifies multiple spermatogenesis-specific features of the meiotic program and provides a framework for comparative studies. Post-pachytene chromatin of spermatocytes is distinct from that of oocytes in both composition and morphology. Strikingly, C. elegans spermatogenesis includes a previously undescribed karyosome stage, a common but poorly understood feature of meiosis in many organisms. We find that karyosome formation, in which chromosomes form a constricted mass within an intact nuclear envelope, follows desynapsis, involves a global down-regulation of transcription, and may support the sequential activation of multiple kinases that prepare spermatocytes for meiotic divisions. In spermatocytes, the presence of centrioles alters both the relative timing of meiotic spindle assembly and its ultimate structure. These microtubule differences are accompanied by differences in kinetochores, which connect microtubules to chromosomes. The sperm-specific features of meiosis revealed here illuminate how the underlying molecular machinery required for meiosis is differentially regulated in each sex

ISG15 Is Critical in the Control of Chikungunya Virus Infection Independent of UbE1L Mediated Conjugation

Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) is a re-emerging alphavirus that has caused significant disease in the Indian Ocean region since 2005. During this outbreak, in addition to fever, rash and arthritis, severe cases of CHIKV infection have been observed in infants. Challenging the notion that the innate immune response in infants is immature or defective, we demonstrate that both human infants and neonatal mice generate a robust type I interferon (IFN) response during CHIKV infection that contributes to, but is insufficient for, the complete control of infection. To characterize the mechanism by which type I IFNs control CHIKV infection, we evaluated the role of ISG15 and defined it as a central player in the host response, as neonatal mice lacking ISG15 were profoundly susceptible to CHIKV infection. Surprisingly, UbE1L−/− mice, which lack the ISG15 E1 enzyme and therefore are unable to form ISG15 conjugates, displayed no increase in lethality following CHIKV infection, thus pointing to a non-classical role for ISG15. No differences in viral loads were observed between wild-type (WT) and ISG15−/− mice, however, a dramatic increase in proinflammatory cytokines and chemokines was observed in ISG15−/− mice, suggesting that the innate immune response to CHIKV contributes to their lethality. This study provides new insight into the control of CHIKV infection, and establishes a new model for how ISG15 functions as an immunomodulatory molecule in the blunting of potentially pathologic levels of innate effector molecules during the host response to viral infection

Spermatogenesis-Specific Features of the Meiotic Program in Caenorhabditis elegans

In most sexually reproducing organisms, the fundamental process of meiosis is implemented concurrently with two differentiation programs that occur at different rates and generate distinct cell types, sperm and oocytes. However, little is known about how the meiotic program is influenced by such contrasting developmental programs. Here we present a detailed timeline of late meiotic prophase during spermatogenesis in Caenorhabditis elegans using cytological and molecular landmarks to interrelate changes in chromosome dynamics with germ cell cellularization, spindle formation, and cell cycle transitions. This analysis expands our understanding C. elegans spermatogenesis, as it identifies multiple spermatogenesis-specific features of the meiotic program and provides a framework for comparative studies. Post-pachytene chromatin of spermatocytes is distinct from that of oocytes in both composition and morphology. Strikingly, C. elegans spermatogenesis includes a previously undescribed karyosome stage, a common but poorly understood feature of meiosis in many organisms. We find that karyosome formation, in which chromosomes form a constricted mass within an intact nuclear envelope, follows desynapsis, involves a global down-regulation of transcription, and may support the sequential activation of multiple kinases that prepare spermatocytes for meiotic divisions. In spermatocytes, the presence of centrioles alters both the relative timing of meiotic spindle assembly and its ultimate structure. These microtubule differences are accompanied by differences in kinetochores, which connect microtubules to chromosomes. The sperm-specific features of meiosis revealed here illuminate how the underlying molecular machinery required for meiosis is differentially regulated in each sex

Developing a core outcome set for future infertility research : An international consensus development study

STUDY QUESTION: Can a core outcome set to standardize outcome selection, collection and reporting across future infertility research be developed? SUMMARY ANSWER: A minimum data set, known as a core outcome set, has been developed for randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and systematic reviews evaluating potential treatments for infertility. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: Complex issues, including a failure to consider the perspectives of people with fertility problems when selecting outcomes, variations in outcome definitions and the selective reporting of outcomes on the basis of statistical analysis, make the results of infertility research difficult to interpret. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION: A three-round Delphi survey (372 participants from 41 countries) and consensus development workshop (30 participants from 27 countries). PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS: Healthcare professionals, researchers and people with fertility problems were brought together in an open and transparent process using formal consensus science methods. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: The core outcome set consists of: viable intrauterine pregnancy confirmed by ultrasound (accounting for singleton, twin and higher multiple pregnancy); pregnancy loss (accounting for ectopic pregnancy, miscarriage, stillbirth and termination of pregnancy); live birth; gestational age at delivery; birthweight; neonatal mortality; and major congenital anomaly. Time to pregnancy leading to live birth should be reported when applicable. LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION: We used consensus development methods which have inherent limitations, including the representativeness of the participant sample, Delphi survey attrition and an arbitrary consensus threshold. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: Embedding the core outcome set within RCTs and systematic reviews should ensure the comprehensive selection, collection and reporting of core outcomes. Research funding bodies, the Standard Protocol Items: Recommendations for Interventional Trials (SPIRIT) statement, and over 80 specialty journals, including the Cochrane Gynaecology and Fertility Group, Fertility and Sterility and Human Reproduction, have committed to implementing this core outcome set. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S): This research was funded by the Catalyst Fund, Royal Society of New Zealand, Auckland Medical Research Fund and Maurice and Phyllis Paykel Trust. The funder had no role in the design and conduct of the study, the collection, management, analysis or interpretation of data, or manuscript preparation. B.W.J.M. is supported by a National Health and Medical Research Council Practitioner Fellowship (GNT1082548). S.B. was supported by University of Auckland Foundation Seelye Travelling Fellowship. S.B. reports being the Editor-in-Chief of Human Reproduction Open and an editor of the Cochrane Gynaecology and Fertility group. J.L.H.E. reports being the Editor Emeritus of Human Reproduction. J.M.L.K. reports research sponsorship from Ferring and Theramex. R.S.L. reports consultancy fees from Abbvie, Bayer, Ferring, Fractyl, Insud Pharma and Kindex and research sponsorship from Guerbet and Hass Avocado Board. B.W.J.M. reports consultancy fees from Guerbet, iGenomix, Merck, Merck KGaA and ObsEva. C.N. reports being the Co Editor-in-Chief of Fertility and Sterility and Section Editor of the Journal of Urology, research sponsorship from Ferring, and retains a financial interest in NexHand. A.S. reports consultancy fees from Guerbet. E.H.Y.N. reports research sponsorship from Merck. N.L.V. reports consultancy and conference fees from Ferring, Merck and Merck Sharp and Dohme. The remaining authors declare no competing interests in relation to the work presented. All authors have completed the disclosure form

2016 Research & Innovation Day Program

A one day showcase of applied research, social innovation, scholarship projects and activities.https://first.fanshawec.ca/cri_cripublications/1003/thumbnail.jp

Demand Forecasting for Alcoholic Beverage Distribution

Forecasting demand is one of the biggest challenges in any business, and the ability to make such predictions is an invaluable resource to a company. While difficult, predicting demand for products should be increasingly accessible due to the volume of data collected in businesses and the continuing advancements of machine learning models. This paper presents forecasting models for two vodka products for an alcoholic beverage distributing company located in the United States with the purpose of improving the company’s ability to forecast demand for those products. The results contain exploratory data analysis to determine the most important variables impacting demand, which are time of year and customer. For each of the two products, models were built to predict demand for three major customers. For each product/customer combination, this paper compares time series and deep learning models to a naive model to see if the prediction accuracy can be improved. For five out of six products, the time series models reduced error by 2.5–66.7% compared to the naive models. Also, for one product, a hybrid CNN model developed for this paper outperformed the time series models by 3–10% and reduced error by 49% compared to the naive models

Sleep disturbance and cancer-related fatigue symptom cluster in breast cancer patients undergoing chemotherapy.

PURPOSE: Sleep disturbance and cancer-related fatigue (CRF) are among the most commonly reported symptoms associated with breast cancer and its treatment. This study identified symptom cluster groups of breast cancer patients based on multidimensional assessment of sleep disturbance and CRF prior to and during chemotherapy. METHODS: Participants were 152 women with stage I-IIIA breast cancer. Data were collected before chemotherapy (T1) and during the final week of the fourth chemotherapy cycle (T2). Latent profile analysis was used to derive groups of patients at each timepoint who scored similarly on percent of the day/night asleep per actigraphy, the Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index global score, and the five subscales of the Multidimensional Fatigue Symptom Inventory-Short Form. Bivariate logistic regression evaluated if sociodemographic/medical characteristics at T1 were associated with group membership at each timepoint. RESULTS: Three groups (Fatigued with sleep complaints, Average, Minimal symptoms) were identified at T1, and five groups (Severely fatigued with poor sleep, Emotionally fatigued with average sleep, Physically fatigued with average sleep, Average, Minimal symptoms) at T2. The majority of individuals in a group characterized by more severe symptoms at T1 were also in a more severe symptom group at T2. Sociodemographic/medical variables at T1 were significantly associated with group membership at T1 and T2. CONCLUSIONS: This study identified groups of breast cancer patients with differentially severe sleep disturbance and CRF symptom profiles prior to and during chemotherapy. Identifying groups with different symptom management needs and distinguishing groups by baseline sociodemographic/medical variables can identify patients at risk for greater symptom burden