Himalayan ecosystem services and climate change driven agricultural frontiers: a scoping review

Climate change, rising temperatures, snow melts and more frequent droughts and floods are disproportionately affecting food and water security, habitat health, and agricultural productivity in the Himalayan region. These climatic changes are negatively impacting productivity of staple crops including wheat, maize, and rice at lower altitudes, but may provide opportunities to utilize Climate Change Driven Agricultural Frontiers [CCDAFs] at higher altitudes. Agricultural expansion into CCDAFs paired with behavioural shifts such as replacing traditional crop systems with commercial crops will predominantly affect forests, water resources, and soil health, which are already negatively affected by climate change unless adaptation options are directed to just and sustainable agroecological transitions. By trading regulating, supporting, and cultural services for food and water provisioning services, as are evident in land sparing strategy, the utilization of CCDAFs will have long-term implications for the sustainability of mountain farming systems. Climate change is affecting Himalayan agriculture, food security, and ecosystem services, and scientific literature predominantly focus on one of these topics in isolation, occasionally connecting results to another topic. By classifying literature as predominantly agriculture, food security, or ecosystem service themed, this scoping review identifies sources with multiple dominant themes and explores how the relationships between these topics are represented in literature to provide research based evidence to promote the future expansion of agriculture that is low-carbon, just and sustainable. Gaps in the literature reveal that research is needed on the extent of CCDAFs in the Himalayas and the potential trade-offs on utilizing the frontier areas

Intellectual Property Right on Basmati Rice: Current Scenario and Evidences of Origin, Diversity, Cultivation and Use Values of Basmati Rice in Nepal

Basmati rice, also called the king/prince of rice landraces has very special values in Nepalese society as well as in other countries of Indian Subcontinent. With the objectives of collecting, analyzing and documenting Basmati related information in Nepal, we visited different sites; carried out key informant surveys; organized focus group discussions, online interaction and discussion meetings; requested all relevant offices/ persons/ stakeholders through phone, website, and letter to share information; organized high level official meeting, and Basmati rice expert meeting; documented video documentary and did online as well as library search. Because of its high market value at global level, many countries and organizations have been attempting to get intellectual property rights (mainly patent and geographical indication tag) on Basmati rice. India applied for GI tag to Basmati rice in the European Union (EU) in July 2018, and Nepal submitted opposition letter along with proofs and evidences of origin, diversity, cultivation and use values of Basmati rice on 9 December 2020. A total 133 Basmati type rice landraces are grown in 60 districts of Nepal. Basmati rice is traditionally grown, sold, and consumed in geographically localized areas of Nepal since ancient time. International and national scientists have defined lower altitude of Nepal as one of the centers of origin of Basmati rice. Many Nepalese basmati rice landraces have been characterized and evaluated using morphological traits, isozymes and DNA markers. Four basmati type of rice landraces have been registered in National Seed Board. Many community seed banks have maintained different types of Basmati rice landraces. National Agriculture Genetic Resources Center and International genebanks have collected more than 80 and conserved 68 basmati landraces. Basmati rice landraces have geo-linked traits. The historical culture of production, consumption and marketing of native basmati rice in Nepal should always be favored by both national and international rules and regulations. Nepal has ample and valid evidences to get geographical indication (GI) right on Basmati rice

Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2\ub75th percentile and 100 as the 97\ub75th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59\ub74 (IQR 35\ub74–67\ub73), ranging from a low of 11\ub76 (95% uncertainty interval 9\ub76–14\ub70) to a high of 84\ub79 (83\ub71–86\ub77). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030

Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.

BACKGROUND: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of 'leaving no one behind', it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990-2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. METHODS: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator

Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality and life expectancy, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

© 2018 The Author(s). Background: Assessments of age-specifc mortality and life expectancy have been done by the UN Population Division, Department of Economics and Social Afairs (UNPOP), the United States Census Bureau, WHO, and as part of previous iterations of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD). Previous iterations of the GBD used population estimates from UNPOP, which were not derived in a way that was internally consistent with the estimates of the numbers of deaths in the GBD. The present iteration of the GBD, GBD 2017, improves on previous assessments and provides timely estimates of the mortality experience of populations globally. Methods: The GBD uses all available data to produce estimates of mortality rates between 1950 and 2017 for 23 age groups, both sexes, and 918 locations, including 195 countries and territories and subnational locations for 16 countries. Data used include vital registration systems, sample registration systems, household surveys (complete birth histories, summary birth histories, sibling histories), censuses (summary birth histories, household deaths), and Demographic Surveillance Sites. In total, this analysis used 8259 data sources. Estimates of the probability of death between birth and the age of 5 years and between ages 15 and 60 years are generated and then input into a model life table system to produce complete life tables for all locations and years. Fatal discontinuities and mortality due to HIV/AIDS are analysed separately and then incorporated into the estimation. We analyse the relationship between age-specifc mortality and development status using the Socio-demographic Index, a composite measure based on fertility under the age of 25 years, education, and income. There are four main methodological improvements in GBD 2017 compared with GBD 2016: 622 additional data sources have been incorporated; new estimates of population, generated by the GBD study, are used; statistical methods used in diferent components of the analysis have been further standardised and improved; and the analysis has been extended backwards in time by two decades to start in 1950. Findings: Globally, 18·7% (95% uncertainty interval 18·4-19·0) of deaths were registered in 1950 and that proportion has been steadily increasing since, with 58·8% (58·2-59·3) of all deaths being registered in 2015. At the global level, between 1950 and 2017, life expectancy increased from 48·1 years (46·5-49·6) to 70·5 years (70·1-70·8) for men and from 52·9 years (51·7-54·0) to 75·6 years (75·3-75·9) for women. Despite this overall progress, there remains substantial variation in life expectancy at birth in 2017, which ranges from 49·1 years (46·5-51·7) for men in the Central African Republic to 87·6 years (86·9-88·1) among women in Singapore. The greatest progress across age groups was for children younger than 5 years; under-5 mortality dropped from 216·0 deaths (196·3-238·1) per 1000 livebirths in 1950 to 38·9 deaths (35·6-42·83) per 1000 livebirths in 2017, with huge reductions across countries. Nevertheless, there were still 5·4 million (5·2-5·6) deaths among children younger than 5 years in the world in 2017. Progress has been less pronounced and more variable for adults, especially for adult males, who had stagnant or increasing mortality rates in several countries. The gap between male and female life expectancy between 1950 and 2017, while relatively stable at the global level, shows distinctive patterns across super-regions and has consistently been the largest in central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia, and smallest in south Asia. Performance was also variable across countries and time in observed mortality rates compared with those expected on the basis of development. Interpretation: This analysis of age-sex-specifc mortality shows that there are remarkably complex patterns in population mortality across countries. The fndings of this study highlight global successes, such as the large decline in under-5 mortality, which refects signifcant local, national, and global commitment and investment over several decades. However, they also bring attention to mortality patterns that are a cause for concern, particularly among adult men and, to a lesser extent, women, whose mortality rates have stagnated in many countries over the time period of this study, and in some cases are increasing

Exploring the Relationship between Cover Crop Adoption and Soil Erosion Severity: A Case Study from the Simcoe Watershed, Ontario, Canada

Runoff from agricultural fields during the nongrowing season is a significant factor leading to phosphorous loading and diminishing water quality in Lake Simcoe, Ontario. Cover crops offer the potential to alleviate phosphorous loss during the nongrowing season by minimizing soil erosional processes and uptaking excess phosphorous; however, recent research suggests that its adoption remains relatively low. More concern lies with the lack of cover crop adoption on areas that are sensitive to soil erosion. This study intends to investigate the likelihood of agricultural productions located on erosive soils to adopt cover crops. Using satellite imagery in corroboration with the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE), this study reveals the frequency of cover crop production and associates soil loss sensitivity at a 30 m resolution from 2013 to 2018. Consistent with recent literature, this study reveals that a small portion (18%) of agricultural operations in the south Simcoe Watershed have incorporated cover crops over the past six years. Cover crops tend to be adopted at a low frequency in areas that have a low sensitivity to soil erosion. This study reveals that areas with higher soil erosion sensitivity are consistent with low-frequency adoption, indicating that these areas are less likely to adopt cover crops regularly. Promoting farm-scale benefits associated with cover crops should target areas in the south Simcoe Watershed that are prone to soil erosion to mitigate total phosphorus (TP) loading into Lake Simcoe

Evaluation of Agrobiodiversity and Cover Crop Adoption in Southern Ontario Field Crops

Incorporating cover crops into corn and soybean operations across Southern Ontario is essential for maintaining yields under environmental stressors. Unfortunately, amongst the literature, there is a concern about the low adoption rate of cover crops in the northern Corn Belt due to a shift toward low agrobiodiversity and dominance of more profitable corn and soybean cropping systems, encouraged by extensive use of fertilizers, herbicides, and pesticides. This study examines whether Southern Ontario is following suit in decreasing agrobiodiversity trends, at the county level, and examines the adoption of cover crops within corn and soybean operations across Southern Ontario using digital imagery from 2013 to 2018. Results reveal that Southern Ontario is indeed shifting from systems characterized by higher agrobiodiversity to systems dominated with corn, soybean, and hay. Despite the benefits of cover crops, this study reveals that most of the current corn and soybean operations are not incorporating cover crops into the rotation. More significantly, the low adoption of cover crops is most apparent in southwestern Ontario, and increases in adoption occur toward the north

Evaluation of Agrobiodiversity and Cover Crop Adoption in Southern Ontario Field Crops

Incorporating cover crops into corn and soybean operations across Southern Ontario is essential for maintaining yields under environmental stressors. Unfortunately, amongst the literature, there is a concern about the low adoption rate of cover crops in the northern Corn Belt due to a shift toward low agrobiodiversity and dominance of more profitable corn and soybean cropping systems, encouraged by extensive use of fertilizers, herbicides, and pesticides. This study examines whether Southern Ontario is following suit in decreasing agrobiodiversity trends, at the county level, and examines the adoption of cover crops within corn and soybean operations across Southern Ontario using digital imagery from 2013 to 2018. Results reveal that Southern Ontario is indeed shifting from systems characterized by higher agrobiodiversity to systems dominated with corn, soybean, and hay. Despite the benefits of cover crops, this study reveals that most of the current corn and soybean operations are not incorporating cover crops into the rotation. More significantly, the low adoption of cover crops is most apparent in southwestern Ontario, and increases in adoption occur toward the north

Climate change creates opportunities to expand agriculture in the Hindu Kush Himalaya but will cause considerable ecosystem trade-offs

Theoretically, climate change will create warmer temperatures and greater precipitation in mountainous regions, making agriculture possible in areas that were once unsuitable for cropping. But the extent and the nature of these ‘agricultural frontiers’ is as yet unknown. Building upon recent research on Climate Change Driven Agricultural Frontiers [CCDAFs], this paper assesses the potential of agricultural expansion in the Hindukush Himalaya [HKH]. Using FAO crop suitability data, we estimated the extent of CCDAFs under three Representative Concentration Pathways for 13 crops as well as the potential impacts of developing these frontiers on ecosystem services. We show that under climate change projected by the IPSL- CM5A-LR climate model, 34,507 km ^2 of agricultural frontiers may emerge in the HKH by 2100 under RCP 6.0. Additionally, results suggest that there will be new opportunities for crop diversification as individual crops will gain frontier area. However, developing these CCDAFs will impact supportive and regulating ecosystem services including carbon storage and sequestration, soil quality, biodiversity, and hydrological processes—with implications for regional water security. These impacts must be considered alongside the benefits of additional food production when evaluating the net benefits of developing CCDAFS