The practice of central banking in other industrialized countries

Central banks in larger industrialized countries increasingly favor market operations, the buying and selling of securities, over standing facilities, such as lending and deposit facilities, in conducting their monetary policies. In their market operations, foreign central banks most commonly trade securities issued or guaranteed by their governments and repurchase agreements that are backed by a variety of assets, including private securities and securities denominated in foreign currencies. Some also trade in securities that are issued by other governments or private securities that are guaranteed by governments or financial institutions. In some cases, these securities may be denominated in foreign currencies.Banks and banking, Central ; Open market operations

Economic rents, the demand for capital, and financial structure

The correspondence between the demand for capital and various measures of the return on assets, the cost of capital, and Tobin’s q often is tenuous (Abel and Blanchard 1986; Hayashi 1982), at times even perverse. Of a variety of possible explanations, this paper considers the consequences of allowing for declining returns to capital--a declining marginal efficiency of capital schedule (MEC). This modification not only relaxes the connection between the demand for capital and many of its traditional determinants, but it also may introduce a connection among the value of the firm, its financial structure, and its stock of assets.Capital

The capitalization and portfolio risk of insurance companies

The enormous growth in both Social Security and private pension plans has stimulated much interest in the impact of these retirement programs on individual saving behavior and the level of national saving. The first issue is the extent to which employees covered by pension plans reduce their own direct saving in response to expected retirement benefits; the response of individuals to guaranteed retirement income will determine, to a large extent, their well-being in retirement. For a nation concerned about saving and capital formation, the second issue is the impact of collectivized retirement saving plans on the national saving rate. This impact will depend not only on individual responses to promised pension benefits, but also on the extent to which firms undertake direct saving, and, if they do not, the extent to which shareholders recognize and compensate for unfunded pension liabilities. The effect of pensions on national saving also requires determining the degree to which increased saving induced by favorable tax provisions exceeds the loss of government revenues. ; This paper will lay out the questions that need to be answered in order to determine the impact of private pension plans on saving, highlight those aspects of pensions that may complicate the analysis, summarize the results of empirical research in this area, and finally make recommendations for improvements in the data.Insurance industry

Tobin's Q, economic rents, and the optimal stock of capital

The correspondence between the demand for capital and various measures of Tobin’s q often is tenuous (Abel and Blanchard 1986; Hayashi 1982), at times even perverse. Among the possible explanations for this apparent challenge to the q theory of investment, this paper considers the consequences of allowing the return on capita] to vary with the scale of production. When enterprises earn economic rents on inframarginal investments, the q theory of investment does not claim that changes in the optimal stock of capital must correspond consistently to changes in marginal q.Capital

Why Are Stocks So Risky?

With the decline in privately and publicly guaranteed benefits for pensions and health care, people increasingly must finance a greater share of their retirement expenses through their own savings. The relatively high long-term return on equity makes investments in stocks seem both an attractive and suitable means of accumulating the substantial wealth that savers will require. Yet, the 50 percent drop in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index from May 2008 to March 2009 is only the latest reminder that stocks pose considerable risk for investors. In the past, equity returns over periods as long as 10 or 20 years have diverged substantially from their long-term averages, tarnishing the appeal of stocks even as investments for the long run...

Is Today's Price-Earnings Ratio Too High?

More than half of households’ retirement savings are invested in stocks. During the recent financial crisis, stocks lost more than one-half their market value from the fall of 2007 to their lows in the spring of 2009. Since the trough in the market, stock prices have risen to nearly 85 percent of their former peak. Despite this rebound, savers remain relatively wary about holding stocks, and many experts expect weak returns on stocks in coming years. According to one time-tested standard, the 10-year trend in companies’ reported earnings, stock prices may have risen too rapidly to offer pension funds and other investors attractive returns in coming years. In the past, when prices have been high relative to this measure of cyclically-adjusted earnings, stocks have generally paid investors subpar returns. This brief takes a closer look at stock prices and companies’ earnings. Although some analysts have proposed alternative ways of measuring cyclically-adjusted earnings, this brief uses the traditional 10-year trend for smoothing reported earnings. It finds that the relationship between stock prices and the traditional trend in earnings has shifted recently as a result of the two recessions since 2000. As this temporary shift reverses, cyclically-adjusted earnings will likely grow sufficiently rapidly in the next several years to bring their relationship to prices back to the long-term average. The first section of this brief discusses the case for comparing stock prices to the trend in cyclically-adjusted earnings, instead of current earnings. The second analyzes the relationship between the two price-earnings measures. The third section examines the outlook for cyclically-adjusted earnings and stock prices. The final section concludes that the distribu­tion of future returns for stocks currently is aligned with their historical average returns.

Regulation of debt and equity

Debt ; Securities ; Investments ; Risk

Are the distinctions between debt and equity disappearing? An overview

Debt ; Securities ; Corporations - Finance ; Public policy

The Structure of 401(k) Fees

Increasingly, people are depending on 401(k) and similar defined contribution plans sponsored by their employers for their retirement income. As a result, participants in these plans also are paying more of their plans’ costs, ranging from administration and sales expenses to the cost of managing investments. These costs can take a substantial toll on retirement savings. Over a 30-year career, for example, paying an annual fee of 50 basis points can reduce the purchasing power of savings at the time of retirement by one-eighth. Employers who sponsor 401(k) plans have a fiduciary responsibility to ensure their plans’ fees are reasonable and communicated to participants. Recently, the Government Accountability Office reported that participants need more information and sponsors need to disclose this information more effectively to fulfill this responsibility. The Department of Labor is revising regulations to require sponsors to report the fees of their plans more clearly to their employees. Congress also has been holding hearings, inquiring if greater disclosure would help reduce costs within 401(k) plans...

What Does It Cost To Guarantee Returns?

The financial crisis has dramatically demonstrated how a collapse in equity prices can decimate retirement accounts. The crisis highlights the fragility of existing 401(k) plans as the only supplement to Social Security and has sparked proposals to reform the retirement income system. One component of such a system could be a new tier of retirement accounts. Given the declines in the share of earnings Social Security will replace, these accounts would bolster replacement rates for low-wage workers and increase the security of middle- and upper-wage workers who increasingly rely on their 401(k) plans to supplement Social Security. However, these new accounts could face the same risk of collapse in value seen over the past year in 401(k)s. So policymakers may find some form of guaranteed return or risk sharing desirable to prevent huge variations in outcomes. This brief explores the feasible range and the cost of the first option – guarantees...