144 research outputs found

    Estimating how inflated or obscured effects of climate affect forecasted species distribution

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    Climate is one of the main drivers of species distribution. However, as different environmental factors tend to co-vary, the effect of climate cannot be taken at face value, as it may be either inflated or obscured by other correlated factors. We used the favourability models of four species (Alytes dickhilleni, Vipera latasti, Aquila fasciata and Capra pyrenaica) inhabiting Spanish mountains as case studies to evaluate the relative contribution of climate in their forecasted favourability by using variation partitioning and weighting the effect of climate in relation to non-climatic factors. By calculating the pure effect of the climatic factor, the pure effects of non-climatic factors, the shared climatic effect and the proportion of the pure effect of the climatic factor in relation to its apparent effect (r), we assessed the apparent effect and the pure independent effect of climate. We then projected both types of effects when modelling the future favourability for each species and combination of AOGCM-SRES (two Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models: CGCM2 and ECHAM4, and two Special Reports on Emission Scenarios (SRES): A2 and B2). The results show that the apparent effect of climate can be either inflated (overrated) or obscured (underrated) by other correlated factors. These differences were species-specific; the sum of favourable areas forecasted according to the pure climatic effect differed from that forecasted according to the apparent climatic effect by about 61% on average for one of the species analyzed, and by about 20% on average for each of the other species. The pure effect of future climate on species distributions can only be estimated by combining climate with other factors. Transferring the pure climatic effect and the apparent climatic effect to the future delimits the maximum and minimum favourable areas forecasted for each species in each climate change scenario.Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación and FEDER (project CGL2009-11316/BOS). D. Romero is a PhD student at the University of Malaga with a grant of the Ministerio de Educacio´n y Ciencia (AP 2007-03633

    Projected Range Contractions of European Protected Oceanic Montane Plant Communities: Focus on Climate Change Impacts Is Essential for Their Future Conservation

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    Global climate is rapidly changing and while many studies have investigated the potential impacts of this on the distribution of montane plant species and communities, few have focused on those with oceanic montane affinities. In Europe, highly sensitive bryophyte species reach their optimum occurrence, highest diversity and abundance in the northwest hyperoceanic regions, while a number of montane vascular plant species occur here at the edge of their range. This study evaluates the potential impact of climate change on the distribution of these species and assesses the implications for EU Habitats Directive-protected oceanic montane plant communities. We applied an ensemble of species distribution modelling techniques, using atlas data of 30 vascular plant and bryophyte species, to calculate range changes under projected future climate change. The future effectiveness of the protected area network to conserve these species was evaluated using gap analysis. We found that the majority of these montane species are projected to lose suitable climate space, primarily at lower altitudes, or that areas of suitable climate will principally shift northwards. In particular, rare oceanic montane bryophytes have poor dispersal capacity and are likely to be especially vulnerable to contractions in their current climate space. Significantly different projected range change responses were found between 1) oceanic montane bryophytes and vascular plants; 2) species belonging to different montane plant communities; 3) species categorised according to different biomes and eastern limit classifications. The inclusion of topographical variables in addition to climate, significantly improved the statistical and spatial performance of models. The current protected area network is projected to become less effective, especially for specialised arctic-montane species, posing a challenge to conserving oceanic montane plant communities. Conservation management plans need significantly greater focus on potential climate change impacts, including models with higher-resolution species distribution and environmental data, to aid these communities’ long-term survival

    Experimental Evaluation of Seed Limitation in Alpine Snowbed Plants

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    Background: The distribution and abundance of plants is controlled by the availability of seeds and of sites suitable for establishment. The relative importance of these two constraints is still contentious and possibly varies among species and ecosystems. In alpine landscapes, the role of seed limitation has traditionally been neglected, and the role of abiotic gradients emphasized. Methodology/Principal Findings: We evaluated the importance of seed limitation for the incidence of four alpine snowbed species (Achillea atrata L., Achillea clusiana Tausch, Arabis caerulea L., Gnaphalium hoppeanum W. D. J. Koch) in local plant communities by comparing seedling emergence, seedling, juvenile and adult survival, juvenile and adult growth, flowering frequency as well as population growth rates lambda of experimental plants transplanted into snowbed patches which were either occupied or unoccupied by the focal species. In addition, we accounted for possible effects of competition or facilitation on these rates by including a measure of neighbourhood biomass into the analysis. We found that only A. caerulea had significantly lower seedling and adult survival as well as a lower population growth rate in unoccupied sites whereas the vital rates of the other three species did not differ among occupied and unoccupied sites. By contrast, all species were sensitive to competitive effects of the surrounding vegetation in terms of at least one of the studied rates. Conclusions/Significance: We conclude that seed and site limitation jointly determine the species composition of these snowbed plant communities and that constraining site factors include both abiotic conditions and biotic interactions. The traditional focus on abiotic gradients for explaining alpine plant distribution hence appears lopsided. The influence of seed limitation on the current distribution of these plants casts doubt on their ability to readily track shifting habitats under climate change unless seed production is considerably enhanced under a warmer climate

    Experimental warming differentially affects vegetative and reproductive phenology of tundra plants

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    Rapid climate warming is altering Arctic and alpine tundra ecosystem structure and function, including shifts in plant phenology. While the advancement of green up and flowering are well-documented, it remains unclear whether all phenophases, particularly those later in the season, will shift in unison or respond divergently to warming. Here, we present the largest synthesis to our knowledge of experimental warming effects on tundra plant phenology from the International Tundra Experiment. We examine the effect of warming on a suite of season-wide plant phenophases. Results challenge the expectation that all phenophases will advance in unison to warming. Instead, we find that experimental warming caused: (1) larger phenological shifts in reproductive versus vegetative phenophases and (2) advanced reproductive phenophases and green up but delayed leaf senescence which translated to a lengthening of the growing season by approximately 3%. Patterns were consistent across sites, plant species and over time. The advancement of reproductive seasons and lengthening of growing seasons may have significant consequences for trophic interactions and ecosystem function across the tundra

    Strong microsite control of seedling recruitment in tundra

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    The inclusion of environmental variation in studies of recruitment is a prerequisite for realistic predictions of the responses of vegetation to a changing environment. We investigated how seedling recruitment is affected by seed availability and microsite quality along a steep environmental gradient in dry tundra. A survey of natural seed rain and seedling density in vegetation was combined with observations of the establishment of 14 species after sowing into intact or disturbed vegetation. Although seed rain density was closely correlated with natural seedling establishment, the experimental seed addition showed that the microsite environment was even more important. For all species, seedling emergence peaked at the productive end of the gradient, irrespective of the adult niches realized. Disturbance promoted recruitment at all positions along the environmental gradient, not just at high productivity. Early seedling emergence constituted the main temporal bottleneck in recruitment for all species. Surprisingly, winter mortality was highest at what appeared to be the most benign end of the gradient. The results highlight that seedling recruitment patterns are largely determined by the earliest stages in seedling emergence, which again are closely linked to microsite quality. A fuller understanding of microsite effects on recruitment with implications for plant community assembly and vegetation change is provided

    Geographical variation in morphology of Chaetosiphella stipae stipae Hille Ris Lambers, 1947 (Hemiptera: Aphididae: Chaitophorinae)

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    Chaetosiphella stipae stipae is a xerothermophilous aphid, associated with Palaearctic temperate steppe zones or dry mountain valleys, where there are grasses from the genus Stipa. Its geographical distribution shows several populations that are spread from Spain, across Europe and Asia Minor, to Mongolia and China. Geographical variation in chaetotaxy and other morphological features were the basis to consider whether individuals from different populations are still the same species. Moreover, using Ch. stipae stipae and Stipa species occurrences, as well as climatic variables, we predict potential geographical distributions of the aphid and its steppe habitat. Additionally, for Stipa species we projected current climatic conditions under four climate change scenarios for 2050 and 2070. While highly variable, our results of morphometric analysis demonstrates that all Ch. stipae stipae populations are one very variable subspecies. And in view of predicted climate change, we expect reduction of Stipa grasslands. The disappearance of these ecosystems could result in stronger separation of the East-European and Asian steppes as well as European ‘warm-stage’ refuges. Therefore, the geographic morphological variability that we see today in the aphid subspecies Ch. stipae stipae may in the future lead to speciation and creation of separate subspecies or species

    Can bryophyte groups increase functional resolution in tundra ecosystems?

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    Funding Information: This study was supported by a grant to SL from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the Marie Sklodowska-Curie, Grant No. 797446 and by the Independent Research Fund Denmark, Grant no. 0135-00140B. Funding from the Academy of Finland (grant 322266), National Science Foundation (1504224, 1836839, PLR-1504381 and PLR-1836898), Independent Research Fund Denmark (9040-00314B), Moscow State University, (project No 121032500089-1), Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada, ArcticNet, Polar Continental Shelf Program, Northern Science Training Program, Polar Knowledge Canada, Royal Canadian Mounted Police, Tomsk State University competitiveness improvement program and the Russian Science Foundation (grant No 20-67-46018) are gratefully acknowledged. Matthias Ahrens provided valuable insights on the cushion growth form, and we are most thankful. We thank Gaius Shaver and two anonymous reviewers for providing valuable critique and input to earlier versions of this manuscript. Publisher Copyright: © the author(s) or their institution(s).The relative contribution of bryophytes to plant diversity, primary productivity, and ecosystem functioning increases towards colder climates. Bryophytes respond to environmental changes at the species level, but because bryophyte species are relatively difficult to identify, they are often lumped into one functional group. Consequently, bryophyte function remains poorly resolved. Here, we explore how higher resolution of bryophyte functional diversity can be encouraged and implemented in tundra ecological studies. We briefly review previous bryophyte functional classifications and the roles of bryophytes in tundra ecosystems and their susceptibility to environmental change. Based on shoot morphology and colony organization, we then propose twelve easily distinguishable bryophyte functional groups. To illustrate how bryophyte functional groups can help elucidate variation in bryophyte effects and responses, we compiled existing data on water holding capacity, a key bryophyte trait. Although plant functional groups can mask potentially high interspecific and intraspecific variability, we found better separation of bryophyte functional group means compared with previous grouping systems regarding water holding capacity. This suggests that our bryophyte functional groups truly represent variation in the functional roles of bryophytes in tundra ecosystems. Lastly, we provide recommendations to improve the monitoring of bryophyte community changes in tundra study sites.Peer reviewe

    Whole-Community Facilitation Regulates Biodiversity on Patagonian Rocky Shores

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    Understanding the factors that generate and maintain biodiversity is a central goal in ecology. While positive species interactions (i.e., facilitation) have historically been underemphasized in ecological research, they are increasingly recognized as playing important roles in the evolution and maintenance of biodiversity. Dominant habitat-forming species (foundation species) buffer environmental conditions and can therefore facilitate myriad associated species. Theory predicts that facilitation will be the dominant community-structuring force under harsh environmental conditions, where organisms depend on shelter for survival and predation is diminished. Wind-swept, arid Patagonian rocky shores are one of the most desiccating intertidal rocky shores ever studied, providing an opportunity to test this theory and elucidate the context-dependency of facilitation.Surveys across 2100 km of southern Argentinean coastline and experimental manipulations both supported theoretical predictions, with 43 out of 46 species in the animal assemblage obligated to living within the matrices of mussels for protection from potentially lethal desiccation stress and predators having no detectable impact on diversity.These results provide the first experimental support of long-standing theoretical predictions and reveal that in extreme climates, maintenance of whole-community diversity can be maintained by positive interactions that ameliorate physical stress. These findings have important conservation implications and emphasize that preserving foundation species should be a priority in remediating the biodiversity consequences of global climate change

    Plant Identity Influences Decomposition through More Than One Mechanism

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    Plant litter decomposition is a critical ecosystem process representing a major pathway for carbon flux, but little is known about how it is affected by changes in plant composition and diversity. Single plant functional groups (graminoids, legumes, non-leguminous forbs) were removed from a grassland in northern Canada to examine the impacts of functional group identity on decomposition. Removals were conducted within two different environmental contexts (fertilization and fungicide application) to examine the context-dependency of these identity effects. We examined two different mechanisms by which the loss of plant functional groups may impact decomposition: effects of the living plant community on the decomposition microenvironment, and changes in the species composition of the decomposing litter, as well as the interaction between these mechanisms. We show that the identity of the plant functional group removed affects decomposition through both mechanisms. Removal of both graminoids and forbs slowed decomposition through changes in the decomposition microenvironment. We found non-additive effects of litter mixing, with both the direction and identity of the functional group responsible depending on year; in 2004 graminoids positively influenced decomposition whereas in 2006 forbs negatively influenced decomposition rate. Although these two mechanisms act independently, their effects may be additive if both mechanisms are considered simultaneously. It is essential to understand the variety of mechanisms through which even a single ecosystem property is affected if we are to predict the future consequences of biodiversity loss
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