The educational burden of disease: a cohort study

Background Students with health disorders might be at risk of disengaging from education, which can reinforce socioeconomic inequalities in health. We aimed to evaluate the associations between 176 diseases and injuries and later school performance in Norwegian adolescents and to estimate the importance of each disorder using a novel measure for the educational burden of disease (EBoD). Methods We used diagnostic information from government-funded health services for all Norwegian inhabitants who were born between Jan 1, 1995, and Dec 31, 2002, were registered as living in Norway at age 11–16 years, and were participating in compulsory education. School performance was assessed as grade point average at the end of compulsory education at age 16 years. We used a linear regression of school performance on disease in a fixed-effects sibling comparison model (113 411 families). The association (regression coefficients) between disease and school performance was multiplied by disease prevalence to estimate the proportional EBoD among 467 412 individuals participating in compulsory education. Findings Overall, although most diseases were not meaningfully associated with grade point average (regression coefficients close to 0), some were strongly associated (eg, intellectual disability regression coefficients –1·2 for boys and –1·3 for girls). The total educational disease burden was slightly higher for girls (53·5%) than for boys (46·5%). Mental health disorders were associated with the largest educational burden among adolescents in Norway (total burden 44·6%; boys 24·6% vs girls 20·0%), of which hyperkinetic disorder contributed to 22·1% of the total burden (boys 14·6% vs girls 7·5%). Among somatic diseases, those with unknown causes and possibly mental causes were associated with the largest educational burden. Interpretation The EBoD concept could provide a simple metric to guide researchers and policy makers. Because mental health disorders form a large component of the educational burden, investment in mental health might be particularly important for improving educational outcomes in adolescents.publishedVersio

The association between BMI and mortality using early adulthood BMI as an instrumental variable for midlife BMI

The article aims to describe the association between midlife body mass index (BMI) and cardiovascular disease (CVD)- and all-cause mortality, and to use early adulthood BMI as an instrumental variable for midlife BMI, in order to obtain an estimate less distorted by midlife confounders and reverse causality. Data from Norwegian health surveys (1974–2003) (midlife BMI, smoking, blood pressure, total cholesterol, heart rate), Military Conscription Records, National Tuberculosis Screenings (early adulthood BMI), National Educational Registry and Cause of Death Registry were linked. Participants with data on BMI in early adulthood and midlife were included (n = 148.886). Hazard Ratio (HR) for CVD mortality was higher in men with midlife obesity relative to normal weight (HR = 1.46(95% CI 1.25, 1.70). For all-cause mortality, HR was higher in those with obesity or underweight in midlife relative to normal weight (Men:HR = 1.19(95% CI 1.09, 1.29), HR = 2.49(95% CI 1.81, 3.43) Women:HR = 1.33(95% CI 1.13, 1.56), HR = 1.61(95% CI 1.22, 2.13)). In instrumental variable analyses, increased BMI became more strongly associated with CVD and all-cause mortality, and the increased risk of all-cause mortality among the underweight attenuated

Impact of COVID-19 on pregnancy-related healthcare utilisation: a prospective nationwide registry study.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the impact of COVID-19 on pregnancy-related healthcare utilisation and differences across social groups. DESIGN: Nationwide longitudinal prospective registry-based study. SETTING: Norway. PARTICIPANTS: Female residents aged 15-50 years (n=1 244 560). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Pregnancy-related inpatient, outpatient and primary care healthcare utilisation before the COVID-19 pandemic (prepandemic: 1 January to 11 March 2020), during the initial lockdown (first wave: 12 March to 3 April 2020), during the summer months of low restrictions (summer period: 4 April to 31 August 2020) and during the second wave to the end of the year (second wave: 1 September to 31 December 2020). Rates were compared with the same time periods in 2019. RESULTS: There were 130 924 inpatient specialist care admissions, 266 015 outpatient specialist care consultations and 2 309 047 primary care consultations with pregnancy-related diagnostic codes during 2019 and 2020. After adjusting for time trends and cofactors, inpatient admissions were reduced by 9% (adjusted incidence rate ratio (aIRR)=0.91, 95% CI 0.87 to 0.95), outpatient consultations by 17% (aIRR=0.83, 95% CI 0.71 to 0.86) and primary care consultations by 10% (aIRR=0.90, 95% CI 0.89 to 0.91) during the first wave. Inpatient care remained 3%-4% below prepandemic levels throughout 2020. Reductions according to education, income and immigrant background were also observed. Notably, women born in Asia, Africa or Latin America had a greater reduction in inpatient (aIRR=0.87, 95% CI 0.77 to 0.97) and outpatient (aIRR 0.90, 95% CI 0.86 to 0.95) care during the first wave, compared with Norwegian-born women. We also observed that women with low education had a greater reduction in inpatient care during summer period (aIRR=0.88, 95% CI 0.83 to 0.92), compared with women with high educational attainment. CONCLUSION: Following the introduction of COVID-19 mitigation measures in Norway in March 2020, there were substantial reductions in pregnancy-related healthcare utilisation, especially during the initial lockdown and among women with an immigrant background

Parental income and mental disorders in children and adolescents:prospective register-based study

Background Children with low-income parents have a higher risk of mental disorders, although it is unclear whether other parental characteristics or genetic confounding explain these associations and whether it is true for all mental disorders. Methods In this registry-based study of all children in Norway (n = 1 354 393) aged 5–17 years from 2008 to 2016, we examined whether parental income was associated with childhood diagnoses of mental disorders identified through national registries from primary healthcare, hospitalizations and specialist outpatient services. Results There were substantial differences in mental disorders by parental income, except for eating disorders in girls. In the bottom 1% of parental income, 16.9% [95% confidence interval (CI): 15.6, 18.3] of boys had a mental disorder compared with 4.1% (95% CI: 3.3, 4.8) in the top 1%. Among girls, there were 14.2% (95% CI: 12.9, 15.5) in the lowest, compared with 3.2% (95% CI: 2.5, 3.9) in the highest parental-income percentile. Differences were mainly attributable to attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder in boys and anxiety and depression in girls. There were more mental disorders in children whose parents had mental disorders or low education, or lived in separate households. Still, parental income remained associated with children’s mental disorders after accounting for parents’ mental disorders and other factors, and associations were also present among adopted children. Conclusions Mental disorders were 3- to 4-fold more prevalent in children with parents in the lowest compared with the highest income percentiles. Parents’ own mental disorders, other socio-demographic factors and genetic confounding did not fully explain these associations

Association of COVID-19 Vaccination During Pregnancy With Incidence of SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Infants

IMPORTANCE: Pregnant women are recommended to receive COVID-19 vaccination to reduce risk of severe COVID-19. Whether vaccination during pregnancy also provides passive protection to infants after birth remains unclear. OBJECTIVE: To determine whether COVID-19 vaccination in pregnancy was associated with reduced risk of COVID-19 in infants up to age 4 months during COVID-19 pandemic periods dominated by Delta and Omicron variants. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This nationwide, register-based cohort study included all live-born infants born in Norway between September 1, 2021, and February 28, 2022. EXPOSURES: Maternal messenger RNA COVID-19 vaccination during second or third trimester compared with no vaccination before or during pregnancy. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: The risk of a positive polymerase chain reaction test result for SARS-CoV-2 during an infant's first 4 months of life by maternal vaccination status during pregnancy with either dose 2 or 3 was estimated, as stratified by periods dominated by the Delta variant (between September 1 and December 31, 2021) or Omicron variant (after January 1, 2022, to the end of follow-up on April 4, 2022). A Cox proportional hazard regression was used, adjusting for maternal age, parity, education, maternal country of birth, and county of residence. RESULTS: Of 21 643 live-born infants, 9739 (45.0%) were born to women who received a second or third dose of a COVID-19 vaccine during pregnancy. The first 4 months of life incidence rate of a positive test for SARS-CoV-2 was 5.8 per 10 000 follow-up days. Infants of mothers vaccinated during pregnancy had a lower risk of a positive test compared with infants of unvaccinated mothers and lower risk during the Delta variant-dominated period (incidence rate, 1.2 vs 3.0 per 10 000 follow-up days; adjusted hazard ratio, 0.29; 95% CI, 0.19-0.46) compared with the Omicron period (incidence rate, 7.0 vs 10.9 per 10 000 follow-up days; adjusted hazard ratio, 0.67; 95% CI, 0.57-0.79). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: The results of this Norwegian population-based cohort study suggested a lower risk of a positive test for SARS-CoV-2 during the first 4 months of life among infants born to mothers who were vaccinated during pregnancy. Maternal COVID-19 vaccination may provide passive protection to young infants, for whom COVID-19 vaccines are currently not available

Preterm birth after the introduction of COVID-19 mitigation measures in Norway, Sweden, and Denmark: a registry-based difference-in-differences study.

BACKGROUND: Although some studies have reported a decrease in preterm birth following the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, the findings are inconsistent. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to compare the incidences of preterm birth before and after the introduction of COVID-19 mitigation measures in Scandinavian countries using robust population-based registry data. STUDY DESIGN: This was a registry-based difference-in-differences study using births from January 2014 through December 2020 in Norway, Sweden, and Denmark. The changes in the preterm birth (<37 weeks) rates before and after the introduction of COVID-19 mitigation measures (set to March 12, 2020) were compared with the changes in preterm birth before and after March 12 from 2014 to 2019. The differences per 1000 births were calculated for 2-, 4-, 8-, 12-, and 16-week intervals before and after March 12. The secondary analyses included medically indicated preterm birth, spontaneous preterm birth, and very preterm (<32 weeks) birth. RESULTS: A total of 1,519,521 births were included in this study. During the study period, 5.6% of the births were preterm in Norway and Sweden, and 5.7% were preterm in Denmark. There was a seasonal variation in the incidence of preterm birth, with the highest incidence during winter. In all the 3 countries, there was a slight overall decline in preterm births from 2014 to 2020. There was no consistent evidence of a change in the preterm birth rates following the introduction of COVID-19 mitigation measures, with difference-in-differences estimates ranging from 3.7 per 1000 births (95% confidence interval, -3.8 to 11.1) for the first 2 weeks after March 12, 2020, to -1.8 per 1000 births (95% confidence interval, -4.6 to 1.1) in the 16 weeks after March 12, 2020. Similarly, there was no evidence of an impact on medically indicated preterm birth, spontaneous preterm birth, or very preterm birth. CONCLUSION: Using high-quality national data on births in 3 Scandinavian countries, each of which implemented different approaches to address the pandemic, there was no evidence of a decline in preterm births following the introduction of COVID-19 mitigation measures

Body mass index and all cause mortality in HUNT and UK Biobank studies:linear and non-linear mendelian randomisation analyses

Objective To investigate the shape of the causal relation between body mass index (BMI) and mortality. Design Linear and non-linear mendelian randomisation analyses. Setting Nord-Trøndelag Health (HUNT) Study (Norway) and UK Biobank (United Kingdom). Participants Middle to early late aged participants of European descent: 56 150 from the HUNT Study and 366 385 from UK Biobank. Main outcome measures All cause and cause specific (cardiovascular, cancer, and non-cardiovascular non-cancer) mortality. Results 12 015 and 10 344 participants died during a median of 18.5 and 7.0 years of follow-up in the HUNT Study and UK Biobank, respectively. Linear mendelian randomisation analyses indicated an overall positive association between genetically predicted BMI and the risk of all cause mortality. An increase of 1 unit in genetically predicted BMI led to a 5% (95% confidence interval 1% to 8%) higher risk of mortality in overweight participants (BMI 25.0-29.9) and a 9% (4% to 14%) higher risk of mortality in obese participants (BMI ≥30.0) but a 34% (16% to 48%) lower risk in underweight (BMI <18.5) and a 14% (−1% to 27%) lower risk in low normal weight participants (BMI 18.5-19.9). Non-linear mendelian randomisation indicated a J shaped relation between genetically predicted BMI and the risk of all cause mortality, with the lowest risk at a BMI of around 22-25 for the overall sample. Subgroup analyses by smoking status, however, suggested an always-increasing relation of BMI with mortality in never smokers and a J shaped relation in ever smokers. Conclusions The previously observed J shaped relation between BMI and risk of all cause mortality appears to have a causal basis, but subgroup analyses by smoking status revealed that the BMI-mortality relation is likely comprised of at least two distinct curves, rather than one J shaped relation. An increased risk of mortality for being underweight was only evident in ever smokers

Future and potential spending on health 2015-40 : development assistance for health, and government, prepaid private, and out-of-pocket health spending in 184 countries

Background The amount of resources, particularly prepaid resources, available for health can affect access to health care and health outcomes. Although health spending tends to increase with economic development, tremendous variation exists among health financing systems. Estimates of future spending can be beneficial for policy makers and planners, and can identify financing gaps. In this study, we estimate future gross domestic product (GDP), all-sector government spending, and health spending disaggregated by source, and we compare expected future spending to potential future spending. Methods We extracted GDP, government spending in 184 countries from 1980-2015, and health spend data from 1995-2014. We used a series of ensemble models to estimate future GDP, all-sector government spending, development assistance for health, and government, out-of-pocket, and prepaid private health spending through 2040. We used frontier analyses to identify patterns exhibited by the countries that dedicate the most funding to health, and used these frontiers to estimate potential health spending for each low-income or middle-income country. All estimates are inflation and purchasing power adjusted. Findings We estimated that global spending on health will increase from US$9.21 trillion in 2014 to$24.24 trillion (uncertainty interval [UI] 20.47-29.72) in 2040. We expect per capita health spending to increase fastest in upper-middle-income countries, at 5.3% (UI 4.1-6.8) per year. This growth is driven by continued growth in GDP, government spending, and government health spending. Lower-middle income countries are expected to grow at 4.2% (3.8-4.9). High-income countries are expected to grow at 2.1% (UI 1.8-2.4) and low-income countries are expected to grow at 1.8% (1.0-2.8). Despite this growth, health spending per capita in low-income countries is expected to remain low, at $154 (UI 133-181) per capita in 2030 and$195 (157-258) per capita in 2040. Increases in national health spending to reach the level of the countries who spend the most on health, relative to their level of economic development, would mean $321 (157-258) per capita was available for health in 2040 in low-income countries. Interpretation Health spending is associated with economic development but past trends and relationships suggest that spending will remain variable, and low in some low-resource settings. Policy change could lead to increased health spending, although for the poorest countries external support might remain essential.Peer reviewe

Evolution and patterns of global health financing 1995-2014 : development assistance for health, and government, prepaid private, and out-of-pocket health spending in 184 countries

Background An adequate amount of prepaid resources for health is important to ensure access to health services and for the pursuit of universal health coverage. Previous studies on global health financing have described the relationship between economic development and health financing. In this study, we further explore global health financing trends and examine how the sources of funds used, types of services purchased, and development assistance for health disbursed change with economic development. We also identify countries that deviate from the trends. Methods We estimated national health spending by type of care and by source, including development assistance for health, based on a diverse set of data including programme reports, budget data, national estimates, and 964 National Health Accounts. These data represent health spending for 184 countries from 1995 through 2014. We converted these data into a common inflation-adjusted and purchasing power-adjusted currency, and used non-linear regression methods to model the relationship between health financing, time, and economic development. Findings Between 1995 and 2014, economic development was positively associated with total health spending and a shift away from a reliance on development assistance and out-of-pocket (OOP) towards government spending. The largest absolute increase in spending was in high-income countries, which increased to purchasing power-adjusted $5221 per capita based on an annual growth rate of 3.0$914 and $267 per capita in 2014, respectively. Spending in low-income countries grew nearly as fast, at 4.6$51 to $120 per capita. In 2014, 59.2$37.6 billion in 2016. Nonetheless, there is a great deal of variation revolving around these averages. 29 countries spend at least 50% more than expected per capita, based on their level of economic development alone, whereas 11 countries spend less than 50% their expected amount. Interpretation Health spending remains disparate, with low-income and lower-middle-income countries increasing spending in absolute terms the least, and relying heavily on OOP spending and development assistance. Moreover, tremendous variation shows that neither time nor economic development guarantee adequate prepaid health resources, which are vital for the pursuit of universal health coverage.Peer reviewe