The Evolution of Income and Fertility Inequalities over the Course of Economic Development: A Human Capital Perspective

Using an endogenous-growth, overlapping-generations framework where human capital is the engine of growth, we trace the dynamic evolution of income and fertility distributions and their interdependencies over three endogenous phases of economic development. In our model, heterogeneous families determine fertility and children’s human capital, and generations are linked via parental altruism and social interactions. We derive and test discriminating propositions concerning the dynamic behavior of inequalities in fertility, educational attainments, and three endogenous income inequality measures -- family-income inequality, income-group inequality, and the Gini coefficient. In this context, we also reexamine the "Kuznets hypothesis" concerning the relation between income growth and inequality.

Social Security, Demographic Trends, and Economic Growth: Theory and Evidence from the International Experience

The worldwide problem with pay-as-you-go (PAYG) social security systems isn't just financial. This study indicates that these systems may have exerted adverse effects on key demographic factors, private savings, and long-term growth rates. Through a comprehensive endogenous-growth model where human capital is the engine of growth, family choices affect human capital formation, and family formation itself is a choice variable, we show that social security taxes and benefits can create adverse incentive effects on family formation and subsequent household choices, and that these effects cannot be fully neutralized by counteracting intergenerational transfers within families. We implement the model using calibrated simulations as well as panel data from 57 countries over 32 years (1960-92). We find that PAYG tax measures account for a sizeable part of the downward trends in family formation and fertility worldwide, and for a slowdown in the rates of savings and economic growth, especially in OECD countries.

Research Scientist Productivity and Firm Size: Evidence from Panel Data on Inventors

It has long been recognized that worker wages and possibly productivity are higher in large firms. Moreover, at least since Schumpeter (1942) economists have been interested in the relative efficiency of large firms in the research and development enterprise. This paper uses longitudinal worker-firm-matched data to examine the relationship between the productivity of workers specifically engaged in innovation and firm size in the pharmaceutical and semiconductor industries. In both industries, we find that inventors’ productivity increases with firm size. This result holds across different specifications and even after controlling for inventors’ experience, past productivity, the quality of other inventors in the firm, and other firm characteristicsPatents; Innovation; Labor productivity; Research; Firm size

Endogenous Fertility, Mortality and Economic Growth: Can a Malthusian Framework Account for the Conflicting Historical Trends in Population?

The 19th century economist, Thomas Robert Malthus, hypothesized that the long-run supply of labor is completely elastic at a fixed wage-income level because population growth tends to outstrip real output growth. Dynamic equilibrium with constant income and population is achieved through equilibrating adjustments in "positive checks" (mortality, starvation) and "preventive checks" (marriage, fertility). Developing economies since the Industrial Revolution, and more recently especially Asian economies, have experienced steady income growth accompanied by sharply falling fertility and mortality rates. We develop a dynamic model of endogenous fertility, longevity, and human capital formation within a Malthusian framework that allows for diminishing returns to labor but also for the role of human capital as an engine of growth. Our model accounts for economic stagnation with high fertility and mortality and constant population and income, as predicted by Malthus, but also for takeoffs to a growth regime and a demographic transition toward low fertility and mortality rates, and a persistent growth in per-capita income.

How much U.S. technological innovation begins in universities?

Technological progress has been the key to improved living standards, but how and where do new ideas get their start? The answer might give us some insight into how we can support greater innovation. Some suggest universities have been an important source of innovative technology. A look at the people involved in the development of patented technologies can give an idea of how much innovation originates in universities.Technological innovations ; Universities and colleges

LABOR MOBILITY OF SCIENTISTS, TECHNOLOGICAL DIFFUSION, AND THE FIRM’S PATENTING DECISION

We develop and test a model of the patenting and R&D decisions of an innovating firm whose scientist-employees sometime quit to join or start a rival. In our model, the innovating firm patents to protect itself from its employees. We show theoretically that the risk of a scientist's departure reduces the firm’s R&D expenditures and raises its propensity to patent an innovation. We find evidence from firm-level panel data that is consistent with this latter result. Our results suggest that scientists' turnover is associated with cross-industry patenting variation and with recent economy-wide increases in patenting. Scientists’ turnover may also partly account for why small firms have high patent-R&D ratiosLabor market for scientists and engineers, patents, research and development, job turnover, mobility of scientists, technological diffusion

Does Stigma Against Smokers Really Motivate Cessation? A Moderated Mediation Model on the Effect of Anti-smoking Campaigns Promoting Smoker-Related Stigma on Cessation Intentions

Over the past decade, an increasing number of strong tobacco control legislations (e.g., high cigarette taxes and strict ban on smoking in public places) have passed through Congress to reduce the size of smoking population in the United States. As a part of such national efforts, anti-smoking campaigns have been introduced to curb health problems associated with smoking. Recent anti-smoking campaigns often employ de-normalization strategies that portray smoker(s) as deviant and stigmatized minorit(ies) and smoking as an abnormal and non-mainstream activity in order to better stimulate cessation. As a result of implementing such stigmatization tactics, prevalence of smoking at a broad population level has constantly declined in recent years. However, such stigmatizing campaign strategies have been less successful in motivating cessation among smokers in lower levels of socioeconomic status (SES) than among those in higher levels of SES. Observation of the gap in cessation rates raises the questions of how and why the effect of stigmatizing campaigns varies depending upon smokers\u27 SES. To answer these questions, an experiment was conducted to test a moderated mediation model on the effect of the stigmatizing anti-smoking campaigns on cessation intentions. Results showed that the stigmatizing (vs. the control) campaign messages led the socioeconomically disadvantaged smokers (i.e., low-income smokers) to experience the lower levels of shame, which was translated into the less cessation intentions. Such unintended consequence of the decreased shame on inhibiting the willingness to quit occurred among the disadvantaged smokers who also showed the lower levels of self-efficacy in successful cessation of smoking. The overall findings of this thesis suggest that anti-smoking campaigns promoting smoker-related stigma might have produced the boomerang effect of decreasing the cessation intentions among the lower income smokers with less self-efficacy who account for the majority of smoking population in recent years. More importantly, the findings indicate that public health campaigns that stigmatize smokers and smoking behavior need to be reconsidered; otherwise smokers with lower annual income and self-efficacy might be left at a greater risk of harms associated with smoking and even the disparity in cessation rates may continue growing. For these reasons, the results of this thesis call for formative research to help develop safer anti-smoking campaign to better prompt smokers across various SES to quit smoking

The Influence of University Research on Industrial Innovation

We use U.S. patent records to examine the role of research personnel as a pathway for the diffusion of ideas from university to industry. Appearing on a patent assigned to a university is evidence that an inventor has been exposed to university research, either directly as a university researcher or through some form of collaboration with university researchers. Having an advanced degree is another indicator of an inventor's exposure to university research. We find a steady increase in industry's use of inventors with university research experience over the period 1985-97, economy wide and in the pharmaceutical and semiconductor industries in particular. We interpret this as evidence of growth in the influence of university research on industrial innovation. Moreover, during this period we find that firms with large research operations in both industries, and young and highly capitalized firms in the pharmaceutical industry, are disproportionately active in the diffusion of ideas from the university sector. Finally, we find that the patents of firms that employ inventors with university research experience are more likely to cite university patents as prior art, suggesting that this experience better enables firms to tap academic research.

Research Scientist Productivity and Firm Size: Evidence from Panel Data on Investors

It has long been recognized that worker wages and possibly productivity are higher in large firms. Moreover, at least since Schumpeter (1942) economists have been interested in the relative efficiency of large firms in the research and development enterprise. This paper uses longitudinal worker-firm-matched data to examine the relationship between the productivity of workers specifically engaged in innovation and firm size in the pharmaceutical and semiconductor industries. In both industries, we find that inventors' productivity increases with firm size. This result holds across different specifications and even after controlling for inventors' experience, education, the quality of other inventors in the firm, and other firm characteristics. We find evidence in the pharmaceutical industry that this is partly accounted for by differences between how large and small firms organize R&D activities.Patents; Innovation; Labor productivity; Research; Firm size