PANC Study (Pancreatitis: A National Cohort Study): national cohort study examining the first 30 days from presentation of acute pancreatitis in the UK

Abstract Background Acute pancreatitis is a common, yet complex, emergency surgical presentation. Multiple guidelines exist and management can vary significantly. The aim of this first UK, multicentre, prospective cohort study was to assess the variation in management of acute pancreatitis to guide resource planning and optimize treatment. Methods All patients aged greater than or equal to 18 years presenting with acute pancreatitis, as per the Atlanta criteria, from March to April 2021 were eligible for inclusion and followed up for 30 days. Anonymized data were uploaded to a secure electronic database in line with local governance approvals. Results A total of 113 hospitals contributed data on 2580 patients, with an equal sex distribution and a mean age of 57 years. The aetiology was gallstones in 50.6 per cent, with idiopathic the next most common (22.4 per cent). In addition to the 7.6 per cent with a diagnosis of chronic pancreatitis, 20.1 per cent of patients had a previous episode of acute pancreatitis. One in 20 patients were classed as having severe pancreatitis, as per the Atlanta criteria. The overall mortality rate was 2.3 per cent at 30 days, but rose to one in three in the severe group. Predictors of death included male sex, increased age, and frailty; previous acute pancreatitis and gallstones as aetiologies were protective. Smoking status and body mass index did not affect death. Conclusion Most patients presenting with acute pancreatitis have a mild, self-limiting disease. Rates of patients with idiopathic pancreatitis are high. Recurrent attacks of pancreatitis are common, but are likely to have reduced risk of death on subsequent admissions. </jats:sec

SARS-CoV-2 vaccination modelling for safe surgery to save lives: data from an international prospective cohort study

Background: Preoperative SARS-CoV-2 vaccination could support safer elective surgery. Vaccine numbers are limited so this study aimed to inform their prioritization by modelling. Methods: The primary outcome was the number needed to vaccinate (NNV) to prevent one COVID-19-related death in 1 year. NNVs were based on postoperative SARS-CoV-2 rates and mortality in an international cohort study (surgical patients), and community SARS-CoV-2 incidence and case fatality data (general population). NNV estimates were stratified by age (18-49, 50-69, 70 or more years) and type of surgery. Best- and worst-case scenarios were used to describe uncertainty. Results: NNVs were more favourable in surgical patients than the general population. The most favourable NNVs were in patients aged 70 years or more needing cancer surgery (351; best case 196, worst case 816) or non-cancer surgery (733; best case 407, worst case 1664). Both exceeded the NNV in the general population (1840; best case 1196, worst case 3066). NNVs for surgical patients remained favourable at a range of SARS-CoV-2 incidence rates in sensitivity analysis modelling. Globally, prioritizing preoperative vaccination of patients needing elective surgery ahead of the general population could prevent an additional 58 687 (best case 115 007, worst case 20 177) COVID-19-related deaths in 1 year. Conclusion: As global roll out of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination proceeds, patients needing elective surgery should be prioritized ahead of the general population

Characterisation of older patients that require, but do not undergo, emergency laparotomy:a multicentre cohort study

BackgroundOlder adults (≥65 yr) account for the majority of emergency laparotomies in the UK and are well characterised with reported outcomes. In contrast, there is limited knowledge on those patients that require emergency laparotomy but do not undergo surgery (NoLaps).MethodsA multicentre cohort study (n=64 UK surgical centres) recruited 750 consecutive NoLap patients (February 15th - November 15th 2021, inclusive of a 90-day follow up period). Each patient was admitted to hospital with a surgical condition treatable by an emergency laparotomy (defined by The National Emergency Laparotomy Audit (NELA) criteria), but a decision was made not to undergo surgery (NoLap).ResultsNoLap patients were predominately female (452 patients, 60%), of advanced age (median age 83.0 yr, interquartile range 77.0–88.8), frail (523 patients, 70%), and had severe comorbidity (750 patients, 100%); 99% underwent CT scanning. The commonest diagnoses were perforation (26%), small bowel obstruction (17%), and ischaemic bowel (13%). The 90-day mortality was 79% and influencing factors were &gt;80 yr, underweight BMI, elevated serum lactate or creatinine concentration. The majority of patients died in hospital (77%), with those with ischaemic bowel dying early. For the 21% of NoLap patients that survived to 90 days, 77% returned home with increased care requirements.ConclusionsThis study reports that the NoLap patient population present significant medical challenges because of their extreme levels of comorbidity, frailty, and physiology. Despite these complexities a fifth remained alive at 90 days. Further work is underway to explore this high-risk decision-making process