Trends and Persistence in Primary Commodity Prices

This paper applies new time-series procedures to examine the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis of a secular deterioration in relative primary commodity prices and the nature of their persistence. Employing a dataset of 24 relative commodity prices for the 1900-98 period, the pervasiveness of the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis is shown to be a function of a priori selected decision criteria, providing an explanation of conflicting findings in the recent literature. Moreover, much less persistence is found in the relative commodity prices than previously reported, since 23 out of the 24 commodities can be classified as trend-stationary. This implies there may well be more room for stabilization and price support mechanisms than previously advocated.primary commodities, unit root tests, structural breaks

Predicting the UK Equity Premium with Dividend Ratios: An Out-Of-Sample Recursive Residuals Graphical Approach

The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the ability of dividend ratios to predict the UK equity premium. Specifically, we apply the Goyal and Welch (2003) methodology to equity premia derived from the UK FTSE All-Share index. This approach provides a powerful graphical diagnostic for predictive ability. Preliminary in-sample univariate regressions reveal that the UK equity premium contains an element of predictability. Moreover, out-of-sample the considered models outperform the historical moving average. In contrast to similar work on the US, the graphical diagnostic then indicates that dividend ratios are useful predictors of excess returns. Finally, Campbell and Shiller (1988) identities are employed to account for the time-varying properties of the dividend yield and dividend growth processes. It is shown that by instrumenting the models with the identities, forecasting ability can be improved.

School uniform and other costs of schooling: views and experiences in Wales (technical report & final report)

"The overall aim of the research was... to explore the views of parents/carers and young people in Wales on the validity, usefulness and benefits of having school uniforms and their experiences and views on the cost and availability of buying uniforms, and to explore how the wider costs of schooling impacts on children, families and schools." - research aims & objectives

The organisational contexts in which research with impact is produced: lessons from REF2014

What are the organisational contexts in which ‘impactful’ research is produced? Following an empirical analysis of a selection of REF2014 impact case studies, Neil Kellard and Martyna Śliwa discuss the links between impact scores and a variety of important contextual factors. In what might be seen as a challenge to the established hierarchy of HEIs, high scores for research publication quality did not necessarily correspond with high scores for impact case studies. However, the under-representation of both early-career and women researchers is a concern future evaluation exercises should seek to address

Victoria Legal Aid community research

Research conducted in June and July 2014 found strong community support for the services provided by Victoria Legal Aid. More than 1500 people were consulted as part of the research, with 92 per cent of respondents agreeing that it was important or very important for a government funded agency to help people who can’t afford legal services. The community consultation was undertaken to inform the development of Victoria Legal Aid’s strategic directions for the next three years and beyond, and was the first such research VLA have ever conducted. Respondents nominated people on a low income (79%), people experiencing or at risk of experiencing family violence (73%) and people with a disability (72%) as most deserving of legal aid. This is aligned with Victoria Legal Aid’s priority clients

Measuring Oil Price Shocks

The role of oil price shocks in US economic activity and inflation is controversial but a key input to current economic policy. To clarify these relations, we employ a more refined measure of oil shocks based on decomposing highly accurate realized volatility estimated using intraday oil futures data. In reconciling prior results, we find that shocks driven by price increases (decreases) are associated with rising (falling) inflation while only a symmetric volatility channel affects economic activity