Challenges and Opportunities for Urban Environmental Health and Sustainability: the HEALTHY-POLIS initiative.

Cities around the world face many environmental health challenges including contamination of air, water and soil, traffic congestion and noise, and poor housing conditions exacerbated by unsustainable urban development and climate change. Integrated assessment of these risks offers opportunities for holistic, low carbon solutions in the urban environment that can bring multiple benefits for public health. The Healthy-Polis consortium aims to protect and promote urban health through multi-disciplinary, policy-relevant research on urban environmental health and sustainability. We are doing this by promoting improved methods of health risk assessment, facilitating international collaboration, contributing to the training of research scientists and students, and engaging with key stakeholders in government, local authorities, international organisations, industry and academia. A major focus of the consortium is to promote and support international research projects coordinated between two or more countries. The disciplinary areas represented in the consortium are many and varied, including environmental epidemiology, modelling and exposure assessment, system dynamics, health impact assessment, multi-criteria decision analysis, and other quantitative and qualitative approaches. This Healthy-Polis special issue presents a range of case studies and reviews that illustrate the need for a systems-based understanding of the urban environment

Comparative assessment of the effects of climate change on heat- and cold-related mortality in the United Kingdom and Australia.

BACKGROUND: High and low ambient temperatures are associated with increased mortality in temperate and subtropical climates. Temperature-related mortality patterns are expected to change throughout this century because of climate change. OBJECTIVES: We compared mortality associated with heat and cold in UK regions and Australian cities for current and projected climates and populations. METHODS: Time-series regression analyses were carried out on daily mortality in relation to ambient temperatures for UK regions and Australian cities to estimate relative risk functions for heat and cold and variations in risk parameters by age. Excess deaths due to heat and cold were estimated for future climates. RESULTS: In UK regions, cold-related mortality currently accounts for more than one order of magnitude more deaths than heat-related mortality (around 61 and 3 deaths per 100,000 population per year, respectively). In Australian cities, approximately 33 and 2 deaths per 100,000 population are associated every year with cold and heat, respectively. Although cold-related mortality is projected to decrease due to climate change to approximately 42 and 19 deaths per 100,000 population per year in UK regions and Australian cities, heat-related mortality is projected to increase to around 9 and 8 deaths per 100,000 population per year, respectively, by the 2080s, assuming no changes in susceptibility and structure of the population. CONCLUSIONS: Projected changes in climate are likely to lead to an increase in heat-related mortality in the United Kingdom and Australia over this century, but also to a decrease in cold-related deaths. Future temperature-related mortality will be amplified by aging populations. Health protection from hot weather will become increasingly necessary in both countries, while protection from cold weather will be still needed

A comparison of methods for calculating population exposure estimates of daily weather for health research

BACKGROUND: To explain the possible effects of exposure to weather conditions on population health outcomes, weather data need to be calculated at a level in space and time that is appropriate for the health data. There are various ways of estimating exposure values from raw data collected at weather stations but the rationale for using one technique rather than another; the significance of the difference in the values obtained; and the effect these have on a research question are factors often not explicitly considered. In this study we compare different techniques for allocating weather data observations to small geographical areas and different options for weighting averages of these observations when calculating estimates of daily precipitation and temperature for Australian Postal Areas. Options that weight observations based on distance from population centroids and population size are more computationally intensive but give estimates that conceptually are more closely related to the experience of the population. RESULTS: Options based on values derived from sites internal to postal areas, or from nearest neighbour sites – that is, using proximity polygons around weather stations intersected with postal areas – tended to include fewer stations' observations in their estimates, and missing values were common. Options based on observations from stations within 50 kilometres radius of centroids and weighting of data by distance from centroids gave more complete estimates. Using the geographic centroid of the postal area gave estimates that differed slightly from the population weighted centroids and the population weighted average of sub-unit estimates. CONCLUSION: To calculate daily weather exposure values for analysis of health outcome data for small areas, the use of data from weather stations internal to the area only, or from neighbouring weather stations (allocated by the use of proximity polygons), is too limited. The most appropriate method conceptually is the use of weather data from sites within 50 kilometres radius of the area weighted to population centres, but a simpler acceptable option is to weight to the geographic centroid

Estimating Risks of Heat Strain by Age and Sex: A Population-Level Simulation Model

Individuals living in hot climates face health risks from hyperthermia due to excessive heat. Heat strain is influenced by weather exposure and by individual characteristics such as age, sex, body size, and occupation. To explore the population-level drivers of heat strain, we developed a simulation model that scales up individual risks of heat storage (estimated using Myrup and Morgan’s man model “MANMO”) to a large population. Using Australian weather data, we identify high-risk weather conditions together with individual characteristics that increase the risk of heat stress under these conditions. The model identifies elevated risks in children and the elderly, with females aged 75 and older those most likely to experience heat strain. Risk of heat strain in males does not increase as rapidly with age, but is greatest on hot days with high solar radiation. Although cloudy days are less dangerous for the wider population, older women still have an elevated risk of heat strain on hot cloudy days or when indoors during high temperatures. Simulation models provide a valuable method for exploring population level risks of heat strain, and a tool for evaluating public health and other government policy interventions

SurfStat.australia: a Statistics Textbook for the Web

SurfStat is a web site comprising the complete text of an introductory service course in Statistics, but with several added interactive features. It demonstrates the concept that existing text-based teaching material (course notes) can be renovated and enlivened for web-based delivery without massive commitment of programming effort. The SurfStat project thus contrasts with projects elsewhere, which showcase very polished material but after years of development are far from delivering a complete course. The web technology is limited to what can be handled by an unadorned browser, including use of frames, JavaScript and CGI scripts for indexing but without video, sound, Shockwave or other multimedia plug-ins. SurfStat is freely accessible at http://www.anu.edu.au/nceph/surfstat/

Tightrope walking: Using predictors of 25 (OH)D concentration based on multivariable linear regression to infer associations with health risks

The debate on the causal association between vitamin D status, measured as serum concentration of 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25[OH]D), and various health outcomes warrants investigation in large-scale health surveys. Measuring the 25(OH)D concentration for each participant is not always feasible, because of the logistics of blood collection and the costs of vitamin D testing. To address this problem, past research has used predicted 25(OH)D concentration, based on multivariable linear regression, as a proxy for unmeasured vitamin D status. We restate this approach in a mathematical framework, to deduce its possible pitfalls. Monte Carlo simulation and real data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2005-06 are used to confirm the deductions. The results indicate that variables that are used in the prediction model (for 25[OH]D concentration) but not in the model for the health outcome (called instrumental variables), play an essential role in the identification of an effect. Such variables should be unrelated to the health outcome other than through vitamin D; otherwise the estimate of interest will be biased. The approach of predicted 25(OH)D concentration derived from multivariable linear regression may be valid. However, careful verification that the instrumental variables are unrelated to the health outcome is required

Fluctuating awareness of treatment goals amongst patients and their caregivers: a longitudinal study of a dynamic process

Background: Because increasing numbers of people now survive for months or years with advanced cancer, communication between patients, service providers, and family caregivers often continues over long periods. Hence, understanding of the goals of medical treatment may develop and change as time elapses and disease progresses. This understanding is closely related to the "awareness of dying," which has been studied in both qualitative and quantitative research. However, when both a patient and family caregiver are involved, the question of "awareness" becomes more complex. A recent longitudinal study reported on patient and caregiver knowledge of treatment goals, but no comparison of such knowledge using matched interview schedules and paired data analysis has been provided. This report examines patterns of awareness and factors associated with these patterns. Materials and methods: One hundred sixty-three patients with incurable cancer and their nominated principal family caregivers (136) were recruited from The Canberra Hospital Oncology Services. Participants' understanding of the treatment goals were measured by interview questions at weeks 1 and 12. Results: One-third of both patients and caregivers understood that the treatment goal was not curative; however, not all patient and caregiver pairs had the same understanding. In 15% of pairs, both patient and caregiver believed that the goal of treatment was curative, while another 13% said that they did not know the aim of the treatment. Thirty-nine percent of pairs registered incongruent responses in which only one member of the pair understood that the treatment was not intended to cure the disease. Over time, a few respondents changed their perception of the treatment goals toward accurate clarification. Bivariate analysis using an awareness variable, constructed for the purpose, showed that in 6 months before death, at least one person in 89% of pairs understood that the treatment was noncurative. Time-to-death, gender, and place of residence were also important predictors of knowledge. Conclusions: Discrepancies between patients and their caregivers may complicate the delivery of effective care when patients are seriously ill. Misunderstanding or uncertainty about treatment goals will obstruct proper informed consent. Health professionals providing care for families dealing with advanced cancer must recognize that the discussion of treatment goals is a dynamic process, which may require them to extend their communication skills

Ballistic impact behaviour of glass fibre reinforced polymer composite with 1D/2D nanomodified epoxy matrices

In this paper, experimental studies on the ballistic impact behaviour of nanomodified glass fibre-reinforced polymer (GFRP) are reported. The epoxy matrix of the GFRP was modified by the addition of graphene platelets (GNPs), carbon nanotubes (CNTs), combined hybrid hexagonal boron nitride nanosheets (BNNS)/CNT, and combined boron nitride nanotubes (BNNTs)/GNPs nanoparticles. Ballistic impact tests were carried out on GFRP laminates at two projectile velocities of 76 ± 1 m s−1 for full-field deformation measurements and 134.3 ± 1.7 m s−1 for perforation tests. The behaviour of the plates during impact was recorded using digital image correlation (DIC), in order to monitor strain and out-of-plane deformation in panels with nanoreinforced matrices. Following penetrative impact tests, pulse thermography was used to characterise the delamination of impacted plates. The results of full-field deformation, exit velocity and energy absorption measurements from the ballistic tests show significant improvements in impact resistance for the panels made from nanomodified epoxies relative to laminates with the unmodified epoxy matrix. The highest absolute absorbed energy was observed for the GFRP panels fabricated using the epoxy matrix loaded with BNNT/GNP at 255.7 J, 16.8% higher than the unmodified epoxy matrix

Investigating the patterns and determinants of seasonal variation in vitamin D status in Australian adults: the Seasonal D Cohort Study

Background: Vitamin D status generally varies seasonally with changing solar UVB radiation, time in the sun, amount of skin exposed, and, possibly, diet. The Seasonal D Study was designed to quantify the amplitude and phase of seasonal variation in the serum concentration of 25-hydroxyvitamin D, (25OH)D)) and identify the determinants of the amplitude and phase and those of inter-individual variability in seasonal pattern. Methods: The Seasonal D Study collected data 2-monthly for 12 months, including demographics, personal sun exposure using a diary and polysulphone dosimeters over 7 days, and blood for serum 25(OH)D concentration. The study recruited 333 adults aged 18-79 years living in Canberra (35 degrees S, n = 168) and Brisbane (27 degrees South, n = 165), Australia. Discussion: We report the study design and cohort description for the Seasonal D Study. The study has collected a wealth of data to examine inter- and intra-individual seasonal variation in vitamin D status and serum 25(OH)D levels in Australian adults