Impact of Hydrological Modellers’ Decisions and Attitude on the Performance of a Calibrated Conceptual Catchment Model: Results from a ‘Modelling Contest’

In this study, 17 hydrologists with different experience in hydrological modelling applied the same conceptual catchment model (HBV) to a Greek catchment, using identical data and model code. Calibration was performed manually. Subsequently, the modellers were asked for their experience, their calibration strategy, and whether they enjoyed the exercise. The exercise revealed that there is considerable modellers’ uncertainty even among the experienced modellers. It seemed to be equally important whether the modellers followed a good calibration strategy, and whether they enjoyed modelling. The exercise confirmed previous studies about the benefit of model ensembles: Different combinations of the simulation results (median, mean) outperformed the individual model simulations, while filtering the simulations even improved the quality of the model ensembles. Modellers’ experience, decisions, and attitude, therefore, have an impact on the hydrological model application and should be considered as part of hydrological modelling uncertainty

Impact of Hydrological Modellers’ Decisions and Attitude on the Performance of a Calibrated Conceptual Catchment Model: Results from a ‘Modelling Contest’

In this study, 17 hydrologists with different experience in hydrological modelling applied the same conceptual catchment model (HBV) to a Greek catchment, using identical data and model code. Calibration was performed manually. Subsequently, the modellers were asked for their experience, their calibration strategy, and whether they enjoyed the exercise. The exercise revealed that there is considerable modellers’ uncertainty even among the experienced modellers. It seemed to be equally important whether the modellers followed a good calibration strategy, and whether they enjoyed modelling. The exercise confirmed previous studies about the benefit of model ensembles: Different combinations of the simulation results (median, mean) outperformed the individual model simulations, while filtering the simulations even improved the quality of the model ensembles. Modellers’ experience, decisions, and attitude, therefore, have an impact on the hydrological model application and should be considered as part of hydrological modelling uncertainty

Modular organization of the brainstem noradrenaline system coordinates opposing learning states

International audienceNoradrenaline modulates global brain states and diverse behaviors through what is traditionally believed to be a homogeneous cell population in the brainstem locus coeruleus (LC). However, it is unclear how LC coordinates disparate behavioral functions. We report a modular LC organization in rats, endowed with distinct neural projection patterns and coding properties for flexible specification of opposing behavioral learning states. LC projection mapping revealed functionally distinct cell modules with specific anatomical connectivity. An amygdala-projecting ensemble promoted aversive learning, while an independent medial prefrontal cortex-projecting ensemble extinguished aversive responses to enable flexible behavior. LC neurons displayed context-dependent inter-relationships, with moderate, discrete activation of distinct cell populations by fear or safety cues and robust, global recruitment of most cells by strong aversive stimuli. These results demonstrate a modular organization in LC in which combinatorial activation modes are coordinated with projection- and behavior-specific cell populations, enabling adaptive tuning of emotional responding and behavioral flexibility