Physical and institutional challenges of low-carbon infrastructure transitions: constraints and potential solutions

There is growing recognition that the United Kingdom’s ageing infrastructure systems are unable to deliver the radical reductions in greenhouse gas emissions necessary to avoid dangerous climate change. As such, there is an imperative to transform our infrastructure systems towards alternatives that deliver services reliably but within environmental limits. There are significant challenges to achieving this transformation but most current analysis focusses on the technical and economic challenges of infrastructure transition. This thesis examines two under-studied challenges to low-carbon infrastructure transition: one principally physical; the constraints posed by the disruption in supply of critical materials embedded in low-carbon energy technologies; and one institutional; the constraints to alternative modes of infrastructure operation from current policy and regulation in water and energy infrastructure. It aims to not only characterise these constraints but also to identify policy responses to alleviate constraints. The two constraints differ greatly in character and contrasting methods were used to analyse the nature and scale of each constraint. Material criticality constraints were examined using a quantitative, indicator-based method developed in this thesis to dynamically assess the risk of critical material disruption to low-carbon electricity generation. Policy and regulatory constraints were analysed using theory building from case study analysis to identify the mechanisms by which development of alternative modes of operation were constrained by policy and regulation. Despite the differing scale and nature of the constraints, there are some striking similarities in the potential policy responses to constraints. The results of both analyses emphasize the importance of diversity in the future infrastructure system, the need for a more targeted approach to policy and stress the need for integrated action across policy areas. The dual focus on understanding and responding to constraints forced a balance between dealing with complexity and enabling action. This highlighted the importance of adaptive policy, which takes action in the face of uncertainty but is able to modify its course as system understanding develops

Extending European energy efficiency standards to include material use: an analysis

Existing international emissions reduction policies are not sufficient to meet the internationally agreed objective of limiting average global temperature rise to ‘well below’ two degrees, resulting in an emissions gap. Materials – such as aluminium, cement, paper, plastics and steel – act as a carrier of industrial energy that allows, through trade, the transfer of embodied emissions between sectors and countries. However, the use of materials has been overshadowed by policies focusing on energy efficiency improvements and deployment of a low carbon energy supply. This article argues that policies based on material and product demand can support domestic climate change mitigation and reduce the emissions gap, yet there is little obvious integration between climate and material efficiency policies. The article investigates current ‘emissions flows’ through the EU economy and how much of these are captured and excluded from existing EU climate policies. We analyse the potential increase in emissions coverage that would be achieved by extending EU directives that currently target the energy use of products (cars, buildings and appliances) in operation, to include the emissions required to produce the goods (i.e. embodied emissions). The analysis shows that a greater integration of material efficiency strategies within climate change mitigation policy could significantly increase the emissions coverage of existing product policies

Decision making for transformative change: exploring model use, structural uncertainty and deep leverage points for change in decision making under deep uncertainty

Moving to a low carbon society requires pro-active decisions to transform social and physical systems and their supporting infrastructure. However, the inherent complexity of these systems leads to uncertainty in their responses to interventions, and their critical societal role means that stakes are high. Techniques for decision making under deep uncertainty (DMDU) have recently begun to be applied in the context of transformation to a low carbon society. Applying DMDU to support transformation necessitates careful attention to uncertainty in system relationships (structural uncertainty), and to actions targeting deep leverage points to transform system relationships. This paper presents outcomes of a structured literature review of 44 case studies in which DMDU is applied to infrastructure decisions. Around half of these studies are found to neglect structural uncertainty entirely, and no study explicitly considers alternative system conceptions. Three quarters of studies consider actions targeting only parameters, a shallow leverage point for system transformation. Where actions targeting deeper leverage points are included, models of system relationships are unable to represent the transformative change these interventions could effect. The lack of attention to structural uncertainty in these studies could lead to misleading results in complex and poorly understood systems. The lack of interventions targeting deep leverage points could lead to neglect of some of the most effective routes to achieving transformative change. This review recommends greater attention to deeper leverage points and structural uncertainty in applications of DMDU targeting transformative change

Circular business model innovation and cognitive framing: addressing the “missing micro”

Circular business model innovation is an important driver for the implementation of circular economy across industries and has become one of the central research debates in recent years. However, while macro-, meso-, and organizational level factors influencing circular business model innovation have attracted vast research interest, less is known about micro-, individual level factors. The question driving this paper is how do individuals' cognitive frames of sustainability influence their conceptualization of new circular business models? We argue that the notion of cognitive frames can help to address the problem of how individuals respond to new concepts with which they are unfamiliar, such as circular business models. The study is based on a multi-stakeholder project Alpha (anonymized), which involved circular business model innovation for resource recovery from waste. Findings suggest that cognitive frames are of primary importance for sensemaking of circular business models and can influence sustainability aspects considered for value creation, value delivery, and value capture

Low carbon infrastructure investment: extending business models for sustainability

Investment in infrastructure is recognized as a key enabler of economic prosperity, but it is also important for addressing social and environmental challenges, including climate change mitigation and addressing fuel poverty. The UK Government Strategy Investing in Britain’s Future argues that significant investment in “resilient, cost effective and sustainable energy supplies” is needed to meet these challenges. However, current methods of assessing the costs and benefits of infrastructure investment, and the subsequent design of business models needed to deliver this investment, often prioritise partial economic gains over social and environmental objectives. This paper extends the business model canvas approach to allow designing business models and evaluation methods that can incorporate social and environmental value streams and propositions as well as economic values in order to facilitate genuinely sustainable infrastructure investment. It demonstrates the usefulness of this extension through two case studies of the development of smart grids for electricity distribution and local heat delivery networks in the UK. Smart grids are essential for maintaining the security and reliability of electricity systems whilst incorporating increasing amounts of low carbon generation in distribution networks. District heat networks can facilitate the efficient supply of low carbon heat. However, both will require significant levels of investment, co-ordination between public, private and regulatory actors, and will deliver a range of economic, social and environmental costs and benefits to these actors. Drawing on empirical interviews with local actors involved in smart grid and heat network developments, and recent work on valuation and business model canvas analysis, the paper challenges the traditional view of a business model as only creating one form of value. Accounting for multiple types of value helps to identify business models that are more likely to achieve the environmental and social goals of infrastructure transformation and opens the door for new actors. Finally, the paper introduces an approach to complex systems modelling of infrastructure investment decisions to take into account the range of actors and the diversity of motivations of these actors

Pathways and interactions for integrating mechanisation into sustainable agricultural production : the case of rice production in Asutsuare, Ghana

DATA AVAILABILITY STATEMENT : The data from this study can be accessed through an email request, following the FSNet-Africa data-sharing policy.Environmentally sustainable small-scale rice production mechanisation is a feasible intervention to help enhance yields and reduce food insecurity. Using machinery for rice production can help small farmers economically and promote sustainability through agroecological principles. The study analyses machinery ownership models and suggests stakeholder interactions for sustainable rice production. The study uses primary data from a field survey of 320 farmers within Asutsuare, a rice production hub in Southern Ghana, and secondary data from various sources. Four different ownership models have been proposed and evaluated. The cooperative-owned machinery (COM) model, with a sharing of the initial investment capital outlay for the machinery acquisition, and the individual ownership model, where the farmer owns and offers hiring services to other farmers (the FOHM-2B and FOHM-2T models) were the most economically viable models. The study also identifies necessary stakeholder engagement and pathways for affordable, sustainable, mechanised small-scale rice production. The models and interactions can promote machinery ownership and strengthen social connections in the community. This local knowledge base can help expand the use of machinery within the community. These models and interactions can be replicated easily in Sub-Saharan African farming communities with similar dynamics. This will improve mechanised farming throughout the continent.The Food Systems Research Network for Africa (FSNet-Africa).https://www.mdpi.com/journal/sustainabilityam2024Agricultural Economics, Extension and Rural DevelopmentSDG-02:Zero Hunge

Critical materials for infrastructure: local vs global properties

Introducing new technologies into infrastructure (wind turbines, electric vehicles, low-carbon materials and so on) often demands materials that are ‘critical’; their supply is likely to be disrupted owing to limited reserves, geopolitical instability, environmental issues and/or increasing demand. Non-critical materials may become critical if introduced into infrastructure, owing to its gigatonne scale. This potentially poses significant risk to the development of low-carbon infrastructure. Analysis of this risk has previously overlooked the relationship between the ‘local properties’ that determine the selection of a technology and the overall vulnerability of the system, a global property. Treating materials or components as elements having fixed properties overlooks optima within the local–global variable space that could be exploited to minimise vulnerability while maximising performance. In this study, a framework for such analysis is presented along with a preliminary measure of relative materials criticality by way of a case study (a wind turbine generator). Although introduction of critical materials (in this case, rare earth metals) enhances technical performance by up to an order of magnitude, the associated increase in criticality may be two or three orders of magnitude. Analysis at the materials and component levels produces different results; design decisions should be based on analysis at several levels