Probability distribution for <i>Culicoides sonorensis</i> in southern Alberta and Montana (2010) as estimated by the best performing model (B).

<p>Low probability classes are represented in green (0–40%) and high probability classes in orange (61–80%) and red (81–100%). The intermediate probability class (41–60%) is represented in yellow.</p

Best models developed with MaxEnt predicting <i>Culicoides sonorensis</i> presence in Alberta (Canada) and Montana (US).

<p>Table includes variables included into each best mode (A–E). Variables, percent contribution, permutation importance, corrected AIC, delta (Δ) and Akaike weights (ω) are provided for each best fit model.</p

Correlation matrix showing Pearson correlation coefficients (<i>r</i>) for the 10 predictors that obtained more than 1% contribution and permutation importance in the first preliminary run of MaxEnt.

<p>In <b>bold</b> are reported highly correlated variables (r > 0.5).</p><p>Asterisks indicate highly correlated variables (r > 0.5).</p

Probability distribution maps of <i>Culicoides sonorensis</i> under different projected climate change scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways, RCP).

<p>A, left panel (2010–2030 scenarios): probability distribution map predicted by MaxEnt for 2010–2030 for each scenario. B, right panel (2030–2050 scenarios): probability distribution map predicted by MaxEnt for 2030–2050 for each RCP scenario. Each RCP is displayed (1) RCP 2.6; (2) RCP 4.5; (3) RCP 8.5.</p

Change analysis into and out of 60% (0.6 probability) threshold category for <i>Culicoides sonorensis</i> occurrence probability as predicted with the Maximum Entropy algorithm under different climate change scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways, RCP: RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 8.5) projected for 2030–2050.

<p>Table represents both percent change and percent area of entire study area for loss, gain, and net change in pixels for each probability class category expressed as percentage (Low-low = 0–20%; low-mod = 21–40%; Moderate = 41–60%; Mod-high = 61–80%; and high-high = 81–100% probability of occurrence). Adjacent table visually indicates gains and losses (of percent change) for each class category. Percent change is defined by the number of pixels changed for a class divided by area of a class in later image, multiplied by one hundred. Percent area change is defined by the number of pixels changed for a class, divided by the total area of the land cover map, multiplied by one hundred.</p

Values for best predictor variables identified by MaxEnt for areas currently above 0.6 probability threshold (60%).

<p>Values for best predictor variables identified by MaxEnt for areas currently above 0.6 probability threshold (60%).</p

Maps of pixel change analysis into and out of 0.6 threshold category (expressed as percentage) for <i>Culicoides sonorensis</i> occurrence probability as predicted with the Maximum Entropy algorithm under different climate change scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways, RCP) projected for 2030–2050.

<p>Each RCP is displayed (C) RCP 2.6; (B) RCP 4.5; (C) RCP 8.5. Green represents those areas moving into lesser than 60% probability threshold category, red represents those areas moving into the greater than 60% probability threshold category for <i>Culicoides sonorensis</i> occurrence.</p

Variables used to characterize habitat for <i>Culicoides sonorensis</i> presence in Alberta (Canada) and Montana (US).

<p>* = North American Regional Reanalysis project (NARR).</p><p>Variables used to characterize habitat for <i>Culicoides sonorensis</i> presence in Alberta (Canada) and Montana (US).</p

Response curves plotting the probability of <i>Culicoides sonorensis</i> against the values of top ecological predictors.

<p>(A) vapour pressure deficit of July (; (B) standard deviation of elevation; (C) Land Cover; (D) precipitation of May. The x-axis represents the variable value and the y-axis represents the probability of <i>Culicoides sonorensis</i> presence as estimated by best MaxEnt model.</p

Land cover percent area of landscape of total current (2010) area above 0.6 (60%) threshold category as identified by MaxEnt.

<p>Land cover percent area of landscape of total current (2010) area above 0.6 (60%) threshold category as identified by MaxEnt.</p