Exoplanetary Transit Constraints Based Upon Secondary Eclipse Observations

Transiting extrasolar planets provide an opportunity to study the mass-radius relation of planets as well as their internal structure. The existence of a secondary eclipse enables further study of the thermal properties of the the planet by observing at infrared wavelengths. The probability of an observable secondary eclipse depends upon the orbital parameters of the planet, particularly eccentricity and argument of periastron. Here we provide analytical expressions for these probabilities, investigate their properties, and calculate their values for the known extrasolar planets. We furthermore quantitatively discuss constraints on existence and observability of primary transits if a secondary eclipse is observed. Finally, we calculate the a-posteriori transit probabilities of the known extrasolar planets, and we present several case studies in which orbital constraints resulting from the presence of a secondary eclipse may be applied in observing campaigns.Comment: 7 pages, 5 figures, 1 table; accepted for publication in PAS

Constraints on Secondary Eclipse Probabilities of Long-Period Exoplanets from Orbital Elements

Long-period transiting exoplanets provide an opportunity to study the mass-radius relation and internal structure of extrasolar planets. Their studies grant insights into planetary evolution akin to the Solar System planets, which, in contrast to hot Jupiters, are not constantly exposed to the intense radiation of their parent stars. Observations of secondary eclipses allow investigations of exoplanet temperatures and large-scale exo-atmospheric properties. In this short paper, we elaborate on, and calculate, probabilities of secondary eclipses for given orbital parameters, both in the presence and absence of detected primary transits, and tabulate these values for the forty planets with the highest primary transit probabilities.Comment: 3 pages, 1 figure, 1 table; to appear in ASP Conf. Proceedings: "Pathways Towards Habitable Planets" 2009, Barcelona, Spain (eds.: D. Gelino, V. Coude du Foresto, I. Ribas

Observational Window Functions in Planet Transit Surveys

The probability that an existing planetary transit is detectable in one's data is sensitively dependent upon the window function of the observations. We quantitatively characterize and provide visualizations of the dependence of this probability as a function of orbital period upon several observing strategy and astrophysical parameters, such as length of observing run, observing cadence, length of night, transit duration and depth, and the minimum number of sampled transits. The ability to detect a transit is directly related to the intrinsic noise of the observations. In our simulations of observational window functions, we explicitly address non-correlated (gaussian or white) noise and correlated (red) noise and discuss how these two noise components affect transit detectability in fundamentally different manners, especially for long periods and/or small transit depths. We furthermore discuss the consequence of competing effects on transit detectability, elaborate on measures of observing strategies, and examine the projected efficiency of different transit survey scenarios with respect to certain regions of parameter space.Comment: 16 pages, 11 figures, 8 tables; accepted for publication in Ap

Decomposing feature-level variation with Covariate Gaussian Process Latent Variable Models

The interpretation of complex high-dimensional data typically requires the use of dimensionality reduction techniques to extract explanatory low-dimensional representations. However, in many real-world problems these representations may not be sufficient to aid interpretation on their own, and it would be desirable to interpret the model in terms of the original features themselves. Our goal is to characterise how feature-level variation depends on latent low-dimensional representations, external covariates, and non-linear interactions between the two. In this paper, we propose to achieve this through a structured kernel decomposition in a hybrid Gaussian Process model which we call the Covariate Gaussian Process Latent Variable Model (c-GPLVM). We demonstrate the utility of our model on simulated examples and applications in disease progression modelling from high-dimensional gene expression data in the presence of additional phenotypes. In each setting we show how the c-GPLVM can extract low-dimensional structures from high-dimensional data sets whilst allowing a breakdown of feature-level variability that is not present in other commonly used dimensionality reduction approaches

pp Elastic Scattering at LHC in a Nucleon-Structure Model

We predict pp elastic differential cross sections at LHC at c.m. energy 14 TeV and momentum transfer range |t| = 0 - 10 GeV*2 in a nucleon-structure model. In this model, the nucleon has an outer cloud of quark-antiquark condensed ground state, an inner shell of topological baryonic charge (r ~ 0.44F) probed by the vector meson omega, and a central quark-bag (r ~ 0.2F) containing valence quarks. We also predict elastic differential cross section in the Coulomb-hadronic interference region. Large |t| elastic scattering in this model arises from valence quark-quark scattering, which is taken to be due to the hard-pomeron (BFKL pomeron with next to leading order corrections). We present results of taking into account multiple hard-pomeron exchanges, i.e. unitarity corrections. Finally, we compare our prediction of pp elastic differential cross section at LHC with the predictions of various other models. Precise measurement of pp elastic differential cross section at LHC by the TOTEM group in the |t| region 0 - 5 GeV*2 will be able to distinguish between these models.Comment: To be published in the Proceedings of the 12th International Conference on Elastic and Diffractive Scattering, DESY, Hamburg. Presented by M. M. Islam, May 200

Statistical analysis for thermometric sensors test program final report

Statistical models for regression analysis of thermometric sensor

Refining Exoplanet Ephemerides and Transit Observing Strategies

Transiting planet discoveries have yielded a plethora of information regarding the internal structure and atmospheres of extra-solar planets. These discoveries have been restricted to the low-periastron distance regime due to the bias inherent in the geometric transit probability. Monitoring known radial velocity planets at predicted transit times is a proven method of detecting transits, and presents an avenue through which to explore the mass-radius relationship of exoplanets in new regions of period/periastron space. Here we describe transit window calculations for known radial velocity planets, techniques for refining their transit ephemerides, target selection criteria, and observational methods for obtaining maximum coverage of transit windows. These methods are currently being implemented by the Transit Ephemeris Refinement and Monitoring Survey (TERMS).Comment: 8 pages, 6 figures, accepted for publication in PAS

System Geometries and Transit / Eclipse Probabilities

Transiting exoplanets provide access to data to study the mass-radius relation and internal structure of extrasolar planets. Long-period transiting planets allow insight into planetary environments similar to the Solar System where, in contrast to hot Jupiters, planets are not constantly exposed to the intense radiation of their parent stars. Observations of secondary eclipses additionally permit studies of exoplanet temperatures and large-scale exo-atmospheric properties. We show how transit and eclipse probabilities are related to planet-star system geometries, particularly for long-period, eccentric orbits. The resulting target selection and observational strategies represent the principal ingredients of our photometric survey of known radial-velocity planets with the aim of detecting transit signatures (TERMS).Comment: 3 pages, 2 figures. Comments: To appear in the ASP Conference Proceedings: Detection and Dynamics of Transiting Exoplanets; Proceedings of Haute Provence Observatory Colloquium (23-27 August 2010); Edited by F. Bouchy, R. F. Diaz, and C. Mouto