Prices vs. Quantities and the Intertemporal Dynamics of the Climate Rent

This paper provides a formal survey of price and quantity instruments for mitigating global warming. We explicitly consider policies’ impact on the incentives of resource owners who maximize their profits intertemporally. We focus on the informational and commitment requirements of the regulator. Furthermore, we study the interplay between (private) resource extraction rent and (public) climate rent and ask how property and management of the climate rent can be assigned between regulator and resource sector. There are only two instruments that unburden the regulator from the complex intertemporal management of the climate rent and associated commitment problems: in the cost-benefit world, we derive a stock-dependent tax rule; in the cost-effective (carbon budget) world, only an emissions trading scheme with free banking and borrowing can shift intertemporal timing decisions completely to the market.resource extraction, climate rent, intertemporal policy instruments, prices vs. quantities, Hotelling

How Strong Do Global Commodity Prices Influence Domestic Food Prices in Developing Countries? A Global Price Transmission and Vulnerability Mapping Analysis

This paper analyzes the transmission from global commodity to domestic food prices for a large set of countries. First, a theoretical model is developed to explain price transmission for different trade regimes. Drawing from the competitive storage model under rational expectations, it is shown that domestic prices can respond instantaneously to global prices even if no trade takes place but future trade is expected. Using a global database on food prices, we construct national and international grain price indices. With an autoregressive distributed lag model, we empirically detect countries in which food prices are influenced by global commodity prices, including futures prices. Mapping transmission elasticities with the size of the population below the poverty line which spends typically a large share of its income on food, we are able to estimate the size of vulnerable population. Our empirical analysis reveals that 90 percent of the global poor (income below 1.25$/day) live in countries where domestic food prices respond to international prices - but the extent of transmission varies substantially. For 360 million poor people, international prices transmit to their country at rates of 30 percent or higher within three months

Learning or Lock-in: Optimal Technology Policies to Support Mitigation

We investigate conditions that aggravate market failures in energy innovations, and suggest optimal policy instruments to address them. Using an intertemporal general equilibrium model we show that “small” market imperfections may trigger a several decades lasting dominance of an incumbent energy technology over a dynamically more efficient competitor, given that the technologies are very good substitutes. Such a “lock-in” into an inferior technology causes significantly higher welfare losses than market failure alone, notably under ambitious mitigation targets. More than other innovative industries, energy markets are prone to these lock-ins because electricity from different technologies is an almost perfect substitute. To guide government intervention, we compare welfare-maximizing technology policies in addition to carbon pricing with regard to their efficiency, effectivity, and robustness. Technology quotas and feed-in-tariffs turn out to be only insignificantly less efficient than first-best subsidies and seem to be more robust against small perturbations.renewable energy subsidy, renewable portfolio standard, feed-in-tariffs, carbon pricing

Renewable Energy Subsidies: Second-Best Policy or Fatal Aberration for Mitigation?

This paper evaluates the consequences of renewable energy policies on welfare, resource rents and energy costs in a world where carbon pricing is imperfect and the regulator seeks to limit emissions to a (cumulative) target. We use a global general equilibrium model with an intertemporal fossil resource sector. We calculate the optimal second-best renewable energy subsidy and compare the resulting welfare level with an efficient first-best carbon pricing policy. If carbon pricing is permanently missing, mitigation costs increase by a multiple (compared to the optimal carbon pricing policy) for a wide range of parameters describing extraction costs, renewable energy costs, substitution possibilities and normative attitudes. Furthermore, we show that small deviations from the second-best subsidy can lead to strong increases in emissions and consumption losses. This confirms the rising concerns about the occurrence of unintended side effects of climate policy { a new version of the green paradox. We extend our second-best analysis by considering two further types of policy instruments: (1) temporary subsidies that are displaced by carbon pricing in the long run and (2) revenue-neutral instruments like a carbon trust and a feed-in-tariff scheme. Although these instruments cause small welfare losses, they have the potential to ease distributional conflicts as they lead to lower energy prices and higher fossil resource rents than the optimal carbon pricing policy.Feed-in-Tariff, Carbon Trust, Carbon Pricing, Supply-Side Dynamics, Green Paradox, Climate Policy

Knowing the Damages is not Enough: The General Equilibrium Impacts of Climate Change

We show that economies may exhibit a strong endogenous macroeconomic adaptation response to climate change. If climate change induces a structural change to the more productive sector, economies can benefit from climate change though productivities in both sectors are reduced. If climate change causes structural shifts towards the less productive sector, damages are exacerbated by the intersectoral reallocation of labor and intertemporal reallocation of capital. We further assess impacts on labor movement and income distribution. We apply our analytical findings to reasonable parameters for a large set of real-world economies and find that the multiplier effect of climate change due to general equilibrium effects is sizable as it ranges between 50 and 250 percent. Thus, existing assessments of climate change impacts can be severely biased

Deforestation, Land Taxes and Development

This paper combines neoclassical growth theory with the von Th nen approach of land conversion to model deforestation and land allocation decisions in an intertemporal general equilibrium context suitable for developing countries. Analyzing the impact of several forest conservation policies, including international transfers under a REDD+ scheme, emphasized the role of taxes on non-forest land as effective and powerful policy that has been largely neglected so far.The findings of our equilibrium analysis are in stark contrast to the conventional economic wisdom that taxes on land are allocation neutral. As we model deforestation as one investment decision besides investment into physical capital stocks, land taxes may not only increase forest conservation levels but also overall capital stocks and output. We identify the conditions that lead to this double-dividend effect and apply them to data for a set of countries, concluding that forest conservation, e.g. implemented by land taxes, can have this positive effect for many developing countries. Additionally, we reassess Borlaug s hypothesis and Jevons paradox in a general-equilibrium context and design a land tax scheme that is robust to agricultural yield increases

The impact of climate conditions on economic production. Evidence from a global panel of regions

We present a novel data set of subnational economic output, Gross Regional Product (GRP), for more than 1500 regions in 77 countries that allows us to empirically estimate historic climate impacts at different time scales. Employing annual panel models, long-difference regressions and cross-sectional regressions, we identify effects on productivity levels and productivity growth. We do not find evidence for permanent growth rate impacts but we find robust evidence that temperature affects productivity levels considerably. An increase in global mean surface temperature by about 3.5°C until the end of the century would reduce global output by 7–14% in 2100, with even higher damages in tropical and poor regions. Updating the DICE damage function with our estimates suggests that the social cost of carbon from temperature-induced productivity losses is on the order of 73–142$/tCO2 in 2020, rising to 92–181$/tCO2 in 2030. These numbers exclude non-market damages and damages from extreme weather events or sea-level rise. © 2020 The Author

Prices vs. quantities and the intertemporal dynamics of the climate rent

This paper provides a formal survey of price and quantity instruments for mitigating global warming. We explicitly consider policies' impact on the incentives of resource owners who maximize their profits intertemporally. We focus on the informational and commitment requirements of the regulator. Furthermore, we study the interplay between (private) resource extraction rent and (public) climate rent and ask how property and management of the climate rent can be assigned between regulator and resource sector. There are only two instruments that unburden the regulator from the complex intertemporal management of the climate rent and associated commitment problems: in the cost-benefit world, we derive a stock-dependent tax rule; in the cost-effective (carbon budget) world, only an emissions trading scheme with free banking and borrowing can shift intertemporal timing decisions completely to the market

Back to the futures : An assessment of commodity market efficiency and forecast error drivers

The role of futures markets in stabilizing spot prices has been extensively discussed. Nevertheless, the ability of these markets to achieve the stabilizing function significantly depends on whether they are ‘efficient’ in the sense that futures prices ‘fully reflect’ the available information. The purpose of this study is first to gauge the extent to which futures markets for a set of traded commodities can be considered efficient in predicting spot prices. We then go beyond traditional analyses of efficiency and assess the relative forecasting performance of futures markets; i.e., the difference between the realization and prediction of future spot prices, and what factors affect these forecast errors. The results of the analysis show that maize, soybeans, and wheat markets are not informationally efficient, so that investors can make outsize profits. We find that short-term speculation, measured by the scalping index, increases the noises in the information formation process, thus increasing forecast errors. Conversely, long-term speculation, proxied by the Working-T index and the speculative pressure index, reduces forecast errors although their quantitative effect is negligible. Other relevant factors that drive forecast errors up are a high level of realized price volatility, the lack of liquidity in the market, and a longer contract maturity horizon