Bayesian estimation applied to multiple species

Observed data are often contaminated by undiscovered interlopers, leading to biased parameter estimation. Here we present BEAMS (Bayesian estimation applied to multiple species) which significantly improves on the standard maximum likelihood approach in the case where the probability for each data point being “pure” is known. We discuss the application of BEAMS to future type-Ia supernovae (SNIa) surveys, such as LSST, which are projected to deliver over a million supernovae light curves without spectra. The multiband light curves for each candidate will provide a probability of being Ia (pure) but the full sample will be significantly contaminated with other types of supernovae and transients. Given a sample of N supernovae with mean probability, ⟨P⟩, of being Ia, BEAMS delivers parameter constraints equal to N⟨P⟩ spectroscopically confirmed SNIa. In addition BEAMS can be simultaneously used to tease apart different families of data and to recover properties of the underlying distributions of those families (e.g. the type-Ibc and II distributions). Hence BEAMS provides a unified classification and parameter estimation methodology which may be useful in a diverse range of problems such as photometric redshift estimation or, indeed, any parameter estimation problem where contamination is an issue

General Relativistic effects in preheating

General relativistic effects in the form of metric perturbations are usually neglected in the preheating era that follows inflation. We argue that in realistic multi-field models these effects are in fact crucial, and the fully coupled system of metric and quantum field fluctuations needs to be considered. Metric perturbations are resonantly amplified, breaking the scale-invariance of the primordial spectrum, and in turn stimulate scalar field resonances via gravitational rescattering. This non-gravitationally dominated nonlinear growth of gravitational fluctuations may have significant effects on the Doppler peaks in the cosmic background radiation, primordial black hole formation, gravitational waves and nonthermal symmetry restoration.Comment: 10 pages. 1 .ps fig. Matches version to appear in Phys Lett

Racial/ethnic heterogeneity in associations of blood pressure and incident cardiovascular disease by functional status in a prospective cohort: the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis.

OBJECTIVES:Research has demonstrated that the association between high blood pressure and outcomes is attenuated among older adults with functional limitations, compared with healthier elders. However, it is not known whether these patterns vary by racial/ethnic group. We evaluated race/ethnicity-specific patterns of effect modification in the association between blood pressure and incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) by functional status. SETTING:We used data from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (2002-2004, with an average of 8.8 years of follow-up for incident CVD). We assessed effect modification of systolic blood pressure and cardiovascular outcomes by self-reported physical limitations and by age. PARTICIPANTS:The study included 6117 participants (aged 46 to 87; 40% white, 27% black, 22% Hispanic and 12% Chinese) who did not have CVD at the second study examination (when self-reported physical limitations were assessed). OUTCOME MEASURES:Incident CVD was defined as an incident myocardial infarction, coronary revascularisation, resuscitated cardiac arrest, angina, stroke (fatal or non-fatal) or death from CVD. RESULTS:We observed weaker associations between systolic blood pressure (SBP) and CVD among white adults with physical limitations (incident rate ratio (IRR) per 10 mm Hg higher SBP: 1.09 (95% CI 0.99 to 1.20)) than those without physical limitations (IRR 1.29 (1.19, 1.40); P value for interaction <0.01). We found a similar pattern among black adults. Poor precision among the estimates for Hispanic or Chinese participants limited the findings in these groups. The attenuated associations were consistent across both multiplicative and additive scales, though physical limitations showed clearer patterns than age on an additive scale. CONCLUSION:Attenuated associations between high blood pressure and incident CVD were observed for blacks and whites with poor function, though small sample sizes remain a limitation for identifying differences among Hispanic or Chinese participants. Identifying the characteristics that distinguish those in whom higher SBP is associated with less risk of morbidity or mortality may inform our understanding of the consequences of hypertension among older adults

Unbroken supersymmetry in the Aharonov-Casher effect

We consider the problem of the bound states of a spin 1/2 chargless particle in a given Aharonov-Casher configuration. To this end we recast the description of the system in a supersymmetric form. Then the basic physical requirements for unbroken supersymmetry are established. We comment on the possibility of neutron confinement in this system

Acid-base changes and acetate metabolism during routine and high-efficiency hemodialysis in children

Acid-base changes and acetate metabolism during routine and high-efficiency hemodialysis in children. Changes in acid-base status and plasma acetate concentrations were studied in eight children during 11 hemodialysis sessions. During dialysis, the blood bicarbonate concentration fell (20.5 ± 0.7 to 19.6 ± 0.8 mEq/liter), the PCO2 fell (33.4 ± 0.8 to 27.5 ± 1.4 mm Hg), and the pH rose (7.42 ± 0.01 to 7.48 ± 0.02). During the hour after dialysis, the bicarbonate concentration rose to normal (23.4 ± 0.7 mEq/liter), the PCO2 rose (32.8 ± 0.8 mm Hg), and the pH remained unchanged. The half-life of plasma acetate, measured after dialysis, was 8.7 min. During five “high-efficiency” dialysis sessions (urea clearance, > 3.0 ml/min/kg), blood bicarbonate concentration fell 3.2 mEq/liter, PCO2 fell 8.7 mm Hg, and plasma acetate rose to 7.51 mmoles/liter, whereas during six “routine efficiency” dialysis sessions (urea clearance, 1.5 to 3.0 ml/min/kg), blood bicarbonate rose 1.0 mEq/liter, PCO2 fell 36 mm Hg, and plasma acetate rose to 3.52 mmoles/liter. At 1 hour after the end of dialysis, blood bicarbonate, PCO2, and plasma acetate concentrations were similar in the two groups. Clinical problems occurred more frequently in the high-efficiency group during dialysis although the difference was not significant. The data indicate that (1) dialysis with acetate buffer effectively corrects pre-dialysis metabolic acidosis, (2) although children have a high rate of acetate metabolism, during high-efficiency dialysis this rate is exceeded by the influx of acetate, and acid-base abnormalities occur. These abnormalities are transient but may cause clinical problems.Modifications acido-basiques et métabolisme de l'acétate au cours de l'hémodialyse de routine ou à efficacité élevée chez l'enfant. Les modifications de l'état acido-basique et des concentrations plasmatiques d'acétate ont été étudiées chez huit enfants au cours de 11 séances d'hémodialyse. Au cours de la dialyse les bicarbonates diminuent (20,5 ± 0,7 à 19,6 ± 0,8 mEq/ litre), la PCO2 diminue (33,4 ± 0,8 à 27,5 ± 1,4 mm Hg), et le pH augmente (7,42 ± 0,01 à 7,48 ± 0,02). Au cours de l'heure qui suit la dialyse les bicarbonates s'élèvent à une valeur normale, 23,4 ± 0,07 mEq/litre, la PCO2 s'élève à 32,8 ± 0,8 mm Hg, et le pH est inchangé. La demi vie de l'acétate plasmatique, mesurée après la dialyse, était de 8,7 min. Au cours de cinq séances de dialyse à haute efficacité (clearance de l'urée, > 3,0 ml/min/kg) les bicarbonates baissent de 3,2 mEq/litre, la PCO2 de 8,7 mm Hg, et l'acétate plasmatique s'est élevé à 7,51 mmoles/litre alors qu'au cours de six séances de dialyse d'efficacité moyenne (clearance de l'urée, 1,5 à 3,0 ml/min/kg) les bicarbonates ont augmenté de 1,0 mEq/litre, la PCO2 a diminué de 3,6 mm Hg, et l'acétate plasmatique s'est élevé à 3,52 mmoles/litre. Une heure après la fin de la dialyse les bicarbonates, la PCO2 et l'acétate plasmatique étaient semblables dans les deux groupes. Des problèmes cliniques sont survenus plus souvent au cours de la dialyse dans le groups à haute efficacité bien que la différence ne soit pas significative. Ces résultats indiquent que (1) la dialyse avec le tampon acétate corrige efficacement l'acidose métabolique pré-dialytique, (2) bien que l'enfant ait une capacité élevée de métaboliser l'acétate, cette capacité est débordée, au cours de la dialyse à haute efficacité, par l'entrée d'acétate et des anomalies acidobasiques surviennent. Ces anomalies sont transitoires et peuvent déterminer des problèmes cliniques

Massless Metric Preheating

Can super-Hubble metric perturbations be amplified exponentially during preheating ? Yes. An analytical existence proof is provided by exploiting the conformal properties of massless inflationary models. The traditional conserved quantity \zeta is non-conserved in many regions of parameter space. We include backreaction through the homogeneous parts of the inflaton and preheating fields and discuss the role of initial conditions on the post-preheating power-spectrum. Maximum field variances are strongly underestimated if metric perturbations are ignored. We illustrate this in the case of strong self-interaction of the decay products. Without metric perturbations, preheating in this case is very inefficient. However, metric perturbations increase the maximum field variances and give alternative channels for the resonance to proceed. This implies that metric perturbations can have a large impact on calculations of relic abundances of particles produced during preheating.Comment: 8 pages, 4 colour figures. Version to appear in Phys. Rev. D. Contains substantial new analysis of the ranges of parameter space for which large changes to the inflation-produced power spectrum are expecte

UV Absorption Lines from High-Velocity Gas in the Vela Supernova Remnant: New insights from STIS Echelle Observations of HD72089

The star HD72089 is located behind the Vela supernova remnant and shows a complex array of high and low velocity interstellar absorption features arising from shocked clouds. A spectrum of this star was recorded over the wavelength range 1196.4 to 1397.2 Angstroms at a resolving power lambda/Delta lambda = 110,000 and signal-to-noise ratio of 32 by STIS on the Hubble Space Telescope. We have identified 7 narrow components of C I and have measured their relative populations in excited fine-structure levels. Broader features at heliocentric velocities ranging from -70 to +130 km/s are seen in C II, N I, O I, Si II, S II and Ni II. In the high-velocity components, the unusually low abundances of N I and O I, relative to S II and Si II, suggest that these elements may be preferentially ionized to higher stages by radiation from hot gas immediately behind the shock fronts.Comment: 11 pages, 2 figures, Latex. Submitted for the special HST ERO issue of the Astrophysical Journal Letter

Inflationary Reheating in Grand Unified Theories

Grand unified theories may display multiply interacting fields with strong coupling dynamics. This poses two new problems: (1) What is the nature of chaotic reheating after inflation, and (2) How is reheating sensitive to the mass spectrum of these theories ? We answer these questions in two interesting limiting cases and demonstrate an increased efficiency of reheating which strongly enhances non-thermal topological defect formation, including monopoles and domain walls. Nevertheless, the large fluctuations may resolve this monopole problem via a modified Dvali-Liu-Vachaspati mechanism in which non-thermal destabilsation of discrete symmetries occurs at reheating.Comment: 4 pages, 5 ps figures - 1 colour, Revtex. Further (colour & 3-D) figures available from http://www.sissa.it/~bassett/reheating/ . Matched to version to appear in Phys. Rev. let

Dark energy reflections in the redshift-space quadrupole

We show that the redshift-space quadrupole will be a powerful tool for constraining dark energy even if the baryon oscillations are missing from the usual monopole power spectrum and even if bias is scale- and time-dependent. We calculate the accuracy with which a next-generation galaxy survey based on KAOS will measure the quadrupole power spectrum, which gives the leading anisotropies in the power spectrum in redshift space due to the linear velocity, Finger of God and Alcock-Paczynski effects. Combining the monopole and quadrupole power spectra breaks the degeneracies between the multiple bias parameters and dark energy both in the linear and nonlinear regimes and, in the complete absence of baryon oscillations ($\Omega_b=0$), leads to a roughly 500% improvement in constraints on dark energy compared with those from the monopole spectrum alone. As a result the worst case - with no baryon oscillations - has dark energy errors only mildly degraded relative to the ideal case, providing insurance on the robustness of next-generation galaxy survey constraints on dark energy.Comment: 6 pages, 3 colour figure

Restoring the sting to metric preheating

The relative growth of field and metric perturbations during preheating is sensitive to initial conditions set in the preceding inflationary phase. Recent work suggests this may protect super-Hubble metric perturbations from resonant amplification during preheating. We show that this possibility is fragile and sensitive to the specific form of the interactions between the inflaton and other fields. The suppression is naturally absent in two classes of preheating in which either (1) the vacua of the non-inflaton fields during inflation are deformed away from the origin, or (2) the effective masses of non-inflaton fields during inflation are small but during preheating are large. Unlike the simple toy model of a $g^2 \phi^2 \chi^2$ coupling, most realistic particle physics models contain these other features. Moreover, they generically lead to both adiabatic and isocurvature modes and non-Gaussian scars on super-Hubble scales. Large-scale coherent magnetic fields may also appear naturally.Comment: 6 pages, 3 ps figures, RevTex, revised discussion of backreaction and new figure. To appear Phys. Rev. D (Rapid Communication