Optimal client recommendation for market makers in illiquid financial products

The process of liquidity provision in financial markets can result in prolonged exposure to illiquid instruments for market makers. In this case, where a proprietary position is not desired, pro-actively targeting the right client who is likely to be interested can be an effective means to offset this position, rather than relying on commensurate interest arising through natural demand. In this paper, we consider the inference of a client profile for the purpose of corporate bond recommendation, based on typical recorded information available to the market maker. Given a historical record of corporate bond transactions and bond meta-data, we use a topic-modelling analogy to develop a probabilistic technique for compiling a curated list of client recommendations for a particular bond that needs to be traded, ranked by probability of interest. We show that a model based on Latent Dirichlet Allocation offers promising performance to deliver relevant recommendations for sales traders.Comment: 12 pages, 3 figures, 1 tabl

Estimating solid waste generation by hospitality industry during major festivals: a quantification model based on multiple regression

Mega-religious festivals hosted in the city of Kerbala, Iraq, annually generate huge quantities of Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) which negatively impacts the environment and human health when poorly managed. The hospitality sector, specifically hotels, is one of the major sources of MSW generated during these festivals. Because it is essential to establish a proper waste management system for such festivals, accurate information regarding MSW generation is required. This study therefore investigated the rate of production of MSW from hotels in Kerbala during mega festivals. A field questionnaire survey was conducted with 150 hotels during the Arba’een festival, one of the largest festivals in the world, attended by about 18 million participants, to identify how much MSW is produced and what features of hotels impact on this. Hotel managers responded to questions regarding features of the hotel such as size (Hs), expenditure (Hex), area (Ha) and number of staff (Hst). An on-site audit was also carried out with all participated hotels to estimate the mass of MSW generated from these hotels. The results indicate that MSW produced by hotels varies widely. In general, it was found that each hotel guest produces an estimated 0.89 kg of MSW per day. However, this figure varies according to the hotels’ rating. Average rates of MSW production from two and five star hotels were 0.83 and 1.22 kg per guest per day, respectively. Statistically, it was found that the relationship between MSW production and hotel features can be modelled with an R2 of 0.799, where the influence of hotel feature on MSW production followed the order Hs > Hex > Hst

Uptake of the NICE osteoarthritis guidelines in primary care: a survey of older adults with joint pain

Background Osteoarthritis (OA) is a leading cause of pain and disability. NICE OA guidelines (2008) recommend that patients with OA should be offered core treatments in primary care. Assessments of OA management have identified a need to improve primary care of people with OA, as recorded use of interventions concordant with the NICE guidelines is suboptimal in primary care. The aim of this study was to i) describe the patient-reported uptake of non-pharmacological and pharmacological treatments recommended in the NICE OA guidelines in older adults with a self-reported consultation for joint pain and ii) determine whether patient characteristics or OA diagnosis impact uptake. Methods A cross-sectional survey mailed to adults aged ≥45 years (n = 28,443) from eight general practices in the UK as part of the MOSAICS study. Respondents who reported the presence of joint pain, a consultation in the previous 12 months for joint pain, and gave consent to medical record review formed the sample for this study. Results Four thousand fifty-nine respondents were included in the analysis (mean age 65.6 years (SD 11.2), 2300 (56.7%) females). 502 (12.4%) received an OA diagnosis in the previous 12 months. More participants reported using pharmacological treatments (e.g. paracetamol (31.3%), opioids (40.4%)) than non-pharmacological treatments (e.g. exercise (3.8%)). Those with an OA diagnosis were more likely to use written information (OR 1.57; 95% CI 1.26,1.96), paracetamol (OR 1.30; 95% CI 1.05,1.62) and topical NSAIDs (OR 1.30; 95% CI 1.04,1.62) than those with a joint pain code. People aged ≥75 years were less likely to use written information (OR 0.56; 95% CI 0.40,0.79) and exercise (OR 0.37; 95% CI 0.25,0.55) and more likely to use paracetamol (OR 1.91; 95% CI 1.38,2.65) than those aged < 75 years. Conclusion The cross-sectional population survey was conducted to examine the uptake of the treatments that are recommended in the NICE OA guidelines in older adults with a self-reported consultation for joint pain and to determine whether patient characteristics or OA diagnosis impact uptake. Non-pharmacological treatment was suboptimal compared to pharmacological treatment. Implementation of NICE guidelines needs to examine why non-pharmacological treatments, such as exercise, remain under-used especially among older people

Effect of a model consultation informed by guideline on recorded quality of care of osteoarthritis (MOSAICS): a cluster randomised controlled trial in primary care

Objective To determine the effect of a model osteoarthritis (OA) consultation (MOAC) informed by National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) recommendations compared with usual care on recorded quality of care of clinical OA in general practice. Design Two-arm cluster randomised controlled trial. Setting Eight general practices in Cheshire, Shropshire, or Staffordshire UK. Participants General practitioners and nurses with patients consulting with clinical OA. Intervention Following six-month baseline period practices were randomised to intervention (n = 4) or usual care (n = 4). Intervention practices delivered MOAC (enhanced initial GP consultation, nurse-led clinic, OA guidebook) to patients aged ≥45 years consulting with clinical OA. An electronic (e-)template for consultations was used in all practices to record OA quality care indicators. Outcomes Quality of OA care over six months recorded in the medical record. Results 1851 patients consulted in baseline period (1015 intervention; 836 control); 1960 consulted following randomisation (1118 intervention; 842 control). At baseline wide variations in quality of care were noted. Post-randomisation increases were found for written advice on OA (4–28%), exercise (4–22%) and weight loss (1–15%) in intervention practices but not controls (1–3%). Intervention practices were more likely to refer to physiotherapy (10% vs 2%, odds ratio 5.30; 95% CI 2.11, 13.34), and prescribe paracetamol (22% vs 14%, 1.74; 95% CI 1.27, 2.38). Conclusions The intervention did not improve all aspects of care but increased core NICE recommendations of written advice on OA, exercise and weight management. There remains a need to reduce variation and uniformly enhance improvement in recorded OA care

The development of a waste management system in Kerbala during major pilgrimage events: determination of solid waste composition

Several religious events take place annually in Kerbala, Iraq, attracting approximately 20 million pilgrims. Consequently, huge amounts of solid waste are generated which have a direct effect on both the environment and human health. The management of such waste poses a serious and complex problem for the city authorities. Therefore, establishing accurate and reliable information about this issue is valuable in terms of waste management planning and resource recovery application. The aim of this study is to analyze the composition of said solid waste during these religious events. To achieve this goal, a field investigation was conducted at three temporary transfer stations, over 10 days, during one event in Kerbala. Sampling and data analysis were carried out based on the ASTM D5231-92 (2003) standard method. Sixty samples of unprocessed solid waste were collected and manually sorted into six different categories: organics, plastics, paper, metals, glass and miscellaneous wastes. The results show that organic waste constituted the main waste category (57%) with paper, plastics and miscellaneous at 15%, 14.6% and 6.5%, respectively. These findings indicate that because of the high percentage of food waste, there exists a strong potential for energy generation or composting. In addition, plastics, papers, metals and glass have the potential to be separated and collected for recycling purposes. These results can be taken as a baseline for developing a successful waste management system in Kerbala city and other cities that have similar major pilgrimage events

Combustion in thermonuclear supernova explosions

Type Ia supernovae are associated with thermonuclear explosions of white dwarf stars. Combustion processes convert material in nuclear reactions and release the energy required to explode the stars. At the same time, they produce the radioactive species that power radiation and give rise to the formation of the observables. Therefore, the physical mechanism of the combustion processes, as reviewed here, is the key to understand these astrophysical events. Theory establishes two distinct modes of propagation for combustion fronts: subsonic deflagrations and supersonic detonations. Both are assumed to play an important role in thermonuclear supernovae. The physical nature and theoretical models of deflagrations and detonations are discussed together with numerical implementations. A particular challenge arises due to the wide range of spatial scales involved in these phenomena. Neither the combustion waves nor their interaction with fluid flow and instabilities can be directly resolved in simulations. Substantial modeling effort is required to consistently capture such effects and the corresponding techniques are discussed in detail. They form the basis of modern multidimensional hydrodynamical simulations of thermonuclear supernova explosions. The problem of deflagration-to-detonation transitions in thermonuclear supernova explosions is briefly mentioned.Comment: Author version of chapter for 'Handbook of Supernovae,' edited by A. Alsabti and P. Murdin, Springer. 24 pages, 4 figure

Relationship of anxiety with joint pain and its management: A population survey

Objectives The aims of the present study was to examine the associations between the severity of pain and anxiety in a community population reporting joint pain, and to investigate the management of joint pain in the presence of comorbid anxiety. Methods A population survey was carried out of people aged ≥45 years, registered with eight general practices in Cheshire, Shropshire and Staffordshire, UK. Respondents were asked to report pain intensity in their hands, hips, knees and feet (on a numerical rating scale), anxiety symptoms (Generalized Anxiety Disorder seven‐item [GAD‐7] scale) and guideline‐recommended treatments used to manage pain. Clinical anxiety was defined by a GAD‐7 score of 10 or more. Results A total of 11,222 respondents with joint pain were included in the analysis, with 1,802 (16.1%) reporting clinical anxiety. Respondents reporting more severe pain were more likely to report clinical anxiety (severe versus mild pain, odds ratio [OR] 5.36, 95% confidence interval [CI] 4.56 to 6.31). The number of pain sites was also positively associated with clinical anxiety (four versus one site; OR 3.64, 95% CI 3.09 to 4.30). Those with clinical anxiety were less likely to undertake general fitness exercises (OR 0.60, 95% CI 0.52 to 0.70), but more likely to diet (OR 1.43, 95% CI 1.21 to 1.69), use walking aids (OR 1.53, 95% CI 1.32 to 1.77) and assistive devices (OR 1.24, 95% CI 1.04 to 1.49), and more likely to use opioids (OR 1.34, 95% CI 1.18 to1.52). Conclusions Anxiety is common among patients presenting to primary care with joint pain. Patients with anxiety are likely to manage their joint pain differently to those without. Case‐finding to identify and treat anxiety would be appropriate in this population, with caution about opioid prescribing and consideration of exercise as an intervention

Study protocol to investigate the effect of a lifestyle intervention on body weight, psychological health status and risk factors associated with disease recurrence in women recovering from breast cancer treatment

Background Breast cancer survivors often encounter physiological and psychological problems related to their diagnosis and treatment that can influence long-term prognosis. The aim of this research is to investigate the effects of a lifestyle intervention on body weight and psychological well-being in women recovering from breast cancer treatment, and to determine the relationship between changes in these variables and biomarkers associated with disease recurrence and survival. Methods/design Following ethical approval, a total of 100 patients will be randomly assigned to a lifestyle intervention (incorporating dietary energy restriction in conjunction with aerobic exercise training) or normal care control group. Patients randomised to the dietary and exercise intervention will be given individualised healthy eating dietary advice and written information and attend moderate intensity aerobic exercise sessions on three to five days per week for a period of 24 weeks. The aim of this strategy is to induce a steady weight loss of up to 0.5 Kg each week. In addition, the overall quality of the diet will be examined with a view to (i) reducing the dietary intake of fat to ~25% of the total calories, (ii) eating at least 5 portions of fruit and vegetables a day, (iii) increasing the intake of fibre and reducing refined carbohydrates, and (iv) taking moderate amounts of alcohol. Outcome measures will include body weight and body composition, psychological health status (stress and depression), cardiorespiratory fitness and quality of life. In addition, biomarkers associated with disease recurrence, including stress hormones, estrogen status, inflammatory markers and indices of innate and adaptive immune function will be monitored. Discussion This research will provide valuable information on the effectiveness of a practical, easily implemented lifestyle intervention for evoking positive effects on body weight and psychological well-being, two important factors that can influence long-term prognosis in breast cancer survivors. However, the added value of the study is that it will also evaluate the effects of the lifestyle intervention on a range of biomarkers associated with disease recurrence and survival. Considered together, the results should improve our understanding of the potential role that lifestyle-modifiable factors could play in saving or prolonging lives