Discrete Event Simulation for Decision Modeling in Health Care: Lessons from Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Screening

Markov models are often used to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of new healthcare interventions but they are sometimes not flexible enough to allow accurate modeling or investigation of alternative scenarios and policies. A Markov model previously demonstrated that a one-off invitation to screening for abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) for men aged 65 y in the UK and subsequent follow-up of identified AAAs was likely to be highly cost-effective at thresholds commonly adopted in the UK (£20,000 to £30,000 per quality adjusted life-year). However, new evidence has emerged and the decision problem has evolved to include exploration of the circumstances under which AAA screening may be cost-effective, which the Markov model is not easily able to address. A new model to handle this more complex decision problem was needed, and the case of AAA screening thus provides an illustration of the relative merits of Markov models and discrete event simulation (DES) models. An individual-level DES model was built using the R programming language to reflect possible events and pathways of individuals invited to screening v. those not invited. The model was validated against key events and cost-effectiveness, as observed in a large, randomized trial. Different screening protocol scenarios were investigated to demonstrate the flexibility of the DES. The case of AAA screening highlights the benefits of DES, particularly in the context of screening studies

ERGs on the brain: the benefits of simultaneous flash retinal and cortical responses in paediatric cerebral visual impairment

PURPOSE: To highlight the importance of simultaneous flash electroretinogram (ERG) and visual evoked potential (VEP) recording to differentiate a true flash VEP response from an artefact caused by the intrusion of the ERG on a mid-frontal reference electrode in cases of severe cerebral visual impairment (CVI). METHODS: We report an observational case series of four children with severe CVI who underwent simultaneous flash ERG and VEP recordings. Flash VEPs from Oz-Fz and lower lid skin ERGs referred to Fz were recorded simultaneously to Grass intensity setting 4 flash stimulation. RESULTS: In all cases, atypical, but reproducible VEPs were evident. Comparison of the timing and waveform of the VEPs and ERGs showed the occipital responses were inverted ERGs and no true flash VEP was evident. CONCLUSIONS: While ISCEV and neurophysiology standards do not require the simultaneous recording of the flash ERG with the VEP, these cases highlight the usefulness of this non-invasive technique particularly in suspected paediatric cerebral visual impairment to differentiate a true VEP from an artefact caused by ERG contamination

The use of metabonomics to uncover differences between the small molecule profiles of eggs from cage and barn housing systems

Metabonomic techniques have been used to observe differences in the small molecule profiles of chicken eggs, to work towards the detection, and thus prevention, of fraud regarding the misrepresentation of egg farming systems. High Performance Liquid Chromatography-Quadrupole-Time-of-Flight-Mass Spectrometry (HPLC-Q-ToF-MS) was used to obtain profiles of the small molecules found in the yolks of eggs that were laid by hens in enriched cage systems, and in barn systems. Statistical analysis of these small molecule profiles, including the use of XCMS Online and multivariate statistics, was able to uncover differences between the yolks of cage and barn eggs. Several unidentified compounds were found to be present in significantly different abundances between cage and barn egg yolks and one of these compounds was tentatively identified, through the use of METLIN, as 1,2-dipalmitoyl-glycero-3-phosphocholine

Discrete Event Simulation for Decision Modelling in Health Care: Lessons from Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Screening

Markov models are often used to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of new healthcare interventions, but they are sometimes not flexible enough to allow accurate modelling or investigation of alternative scenarios and policies. A Markov model previously demonstrated that a one-off invitation to screening for abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) for men aged 65 in the UK and subsequent follow-up of identified AAAs was likely to be highly cost-effective at thresholds commonly adopted in the UK (£20,000-£30,000 per quality adjusted life-year). However, new evidence has emerged and the decision problem has evolved to include the exploration of the circumstances under which AAA screening may be cost-effective, which the Markov model is not easily able to address. A new model to handle this more complex decision problem was needed and the case of AAA screening thus provides an illustration of the relative merits of Markov models and discrete event simulation (DES) models. An individual level DES model was built using the R programming language to reflect possible events and pathways of individuals invited to screening versus those not invited. The model was validated against key events and cost-effectiveness as observed in a large randomized trial. Different screening protocol scenarios were investigated to demonstrate the flexibility of the DES. The case of AAA screening highlights the benefits of DES, particularly in the context of screening studies

Five questions to consider before conducting a stepped wedge trial.

Researchers should consider five questions before starting a stepped wedge trial. Why are you planning one? Researchers sometimes think that stepped wedge trials are useful when there is little doubt about the benefit of the intervention being tested. However, if the primary reason for an intervention is to measure its effect, without equipoise there is no ethical justification for delaying implementation in some clusters. By contrast, if you are undertaking pragmatic research, where the primary reason for rolling out the intervention is for it to exert its benefits, and if phased implementation is inevitable, a stepped wedge trial is a valid option and provides better evidence than most non-randomized evaluations. What design will you use? Two common stepped wedge designs are based on the recruitment of a closed or open cohort. In both, individuals may experience both control and intervention conditions and you should be concerned about carry-over effects. In a third, continuous-recruitment, short-exposure design, individuals are recruited as they become eligible and experience either control or intervention condition, but not both. How will you conduct the primary analysis? In stepped wedge trials, control of confounding factors through secular variation is essential. 'Vertical' approaches preserve randomization and compare outcomes between randomized groups within periods. 'Horizontal' approaches compare outcomes before and after crossover to the intervention condition. Most analysis models used in practice combine both types of comparison. The appropriate analytic strategy should be considered on a case-by-case basis. How large will your trial be? Standard sample size calculations for cluster randomized trials do not accommodate the specific features of stepped wedge trials. Methods exist for many stepped wedge designs, but simulation-based calculations provide the greatest flexibility. In some scenarios, such as when the intracluster correlation coefficient is moderate or high, or the cluster size is large, a stepped wedge trial may require fewer clusters than a parallel cluster trial. How will you report your trial? Stepped wedge trials are currently challenging to report using CONSORT principles. Researchers should consider how to demonstrate balance achieved by randomization and how to describe trends for outcomes in both intervention and control clusters

The evolution of democratic peace in animal societies

\ua9 The Author(s) 2024.A major goal in evolutionary biology is to elucidate common principles that drive human and other animal societies to adopt either a warlike or peaceful nature. One proposed explanation for the variation in aggression between human societies is the democratic peace hypothesis. According to this theory, autocracies are more warlike than democracies because autocratic leaders can pursue fights for private gain. However, autocratic and democratic decision-making processes are not unique to humans and are widely observed across a diverse range of non-human animal societies. We use evolutionary game theory to evaluate whether the logic of democratic peace may apply across taxa; specifically adapting the classic Hawk-Dove model to consider conflict decisions made by groups rather than individuals. We find support for the democratic peace hypothesis without mechanisms involving complex human institutions and discuss how these findings might be relevant to non-human animal societies. We suggest that the degree to which collective decisions are shared may explain variation in the intensity of intergroup conflict in nature

Safety, efficacy, and immunogenicity of an inactivated influenza vaccine in healthy adults: a randomized, placebo-controlled trial over two influenza seasons

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Seasonal influenza imposes a substantial personal morbidity and societal cost burden. Vaccination is the major strategy for influenza prevention; however, because antigenically drifted influenza A and B viruses circulate annually, influenza vaccines must be updated to provide protection against the predicted prevalent strains for the next influenza season. The aim of this study was to assess the efficacy, safety, reactogenicity, and immunogenicity of a trivalent inactivated split virion influenza vaccine (TIV) in healthy adults over two influenza seasons in the US.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The primary endpoint of this double-blind, randomized study was the average efficacy of TIV versus placebo for the prevention of vaccine-matched, culture-confirmed influenza (VMCCI) across the 2005-2006 and 2006-2007 influenza seasons. Secondary endpoints included the prevention of laboratory-confirmed (defined by culture and/or serology) influenza, as well as safety, reactogenicity, immunogenicity, and consistency between three consecutive vaccine lots. Participants were assessed actively during both influenza seasons, and nasopharyngeal swabs were collected for viral culture from individuals with influenza-like illness. Blood specimens were obtained for serology one month after vaccination and at the end of each influenza season's surveillance period.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Although the point estimate for efficacy in the prevention of all laboratory-confirmed influenza was 63.2% (97.5% confidence interval [CI] lower bound of 48.2%), the point estimate for the primary endpoint, efficacy of TIV against VMCCI across both influenza seasons, was 46.3% with a 97.5% CI lower bound of 9.8%. This did not satisfy the pre-specified success criterion of a one-sided 97.5% CI lower bound of >35% for vaccine efficacy. The VMCCI attack rates were very low overall at 0.6% and 1.2% in the TIV and placebo groups, respectively. Apart from a mismatch for influenza B virus lineage in 2005-2006, there was a good match between TIV and the circulating strains. TIV was highly immunogenic, and immune responses were consistent between three different TIV lots. The most common reactogenicity events and spontaneous adverse events were associated with the injection site, and were mild in severity.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Despite a good immune response, and an average efficacy over two influenza seasons against laboratory-confirmed influenza of 63.2%, the pre-specified target (lower one-sided 97.5% confidence bound for efficacy > 35%) for the primary efficacy endpoint, the prevention of VMCCI, was not met. However, the results should be interpreted with caution in view of the very low attack rates we observed at the study sites in the 2005-2006 and 2006-2007, which corresponded to relatively mild influenza seasons in the US. Overall, the results showed that TIV has an acceptable safety profile and offered clinical benefit that exceeded risk.</p> <p>Trial registration</p> <p>NCT00216242</p

Physical Activity and Sedentary Time: Association with Metabolic Health and Liver Fat.

INTRODUCTION/PURPOSE: To investigate whether a) lower levels of daily physical activity (PA) and greater sedentary time accounted for contrasting metabolic phenotypes (higher liver fat/presence of metabolic syndrome [MetS+] vs lower liver fat/absence of metabolic syndrome [MetS-]) in individuals of similar BMI and b) the association of sedentary time on metabolic health and liver fat. METHODS: Ninety-eight habitually active participants (53 female, 45 male; age 39±13 years; BMI 26.9±5.1 kg/m), underwent assessments of PA (SenseWear armband; wear time ~98%), cardio-respiratory fitness (V[Combining Dot Above]O2 peak), body composition (MRI and MRS) and multi-organ insulin sensitivity (OGTT). We undertook a) cross-sectional analysis comparing four groups: non-obese or obese, with and without metabolic syndrome (MetS+ vs MetS-) and b) univariate and multivariate regression for sedentary time and other levels of PA in relation to liver fat. RESULTS: Light, moderate and vigorous PA did not account for differences in metabolic health between individuals, whether non-obese or obese, although MetS+ individuals were more sedentary, with a higher number, and prolonged bouts (~1-2 hours). Overall, sedentary time, average daily METS and V[Combining Dot Above]O2 peak were each independently associated with liver fat percentage. Each additional hour of daily sedentary time was associated with a 1.15% (95% CI, 1.14-1.50%) higher liver fat content. CONCLUSIONS: Greater sedentary time, independent of other levels of PA, is associated with being metabolically unhealthy; even in habitually active people, lesser sedentary time, and higher cardio-respiratory fitness and average daily METS is associated with lower liver fat.This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0 (CCBY), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited