Grain-supply response in Ethiopia: An error-correction approach

This paper quantifies the responsiveness of producers of teff, wheat, maize and sorghum to incentives using an error-correction model (ECM). It is found that planned supply of these crops is positively affected by own price, negatively by prices of substitute crops and variously by structural breaks related to policy changes and the occurrence of natural calamities. It has found significant long-run price elasticities for all crop types and insignificant short-run price elasticities for all crops but maize. Higher and significant long-run price elasticities as compared to lower and insignificant short-run price elasticities are attributable to various factors, namely structural constraints, the theory of supply and the conviction that farmers respond when they are certain that price changes are permanent. The paper concludes that farmers do respond to incentive changes. Thus attempts, which directly or indirectly tax agriculture with the belief that the sector is non-responsive to incentives, harm its growth and its contribution to growth in other sectors of the economy.Crop Production/Industries,

Economic framework for integrating environmental stewardship into food security strategies in low-income countries: case of agroforestry in southern African region

One of the greatest challenges in many Sub-Saharan Africa countries especially where seasonal food deficits occur frequently, is how best to achieve a balance between the goals of food security and agricultural production on the one hand, and the concerns for the conservation of environmental quality and natural resources capital on the other. A number of agricultural production technologies (based on natural resource management principles) exist that offer opportunities for achieving the two seemingly divergent goals because they have the characteristics to produce joint multiple outputs, i.e, they produce food and provide environmental services. However, farmer adoption of these technologies has generally been limited. Drawing from natural resource economics, this study presents a conceptual framework that provide environmental-economic logic for establishing incentives that internalize the environmental services produced by multiple-outputs land use technologies. Using a land use practice based on agroforestry principles (that is, “improved tree fallows”) as a case study, this paper synthesizes studies carried out in southern Africa region for over a decade. It then discusses how the potential impacts of the technological advances made in research and development are affected by policy and institutional constraints, among other challenges. With particular emphasis on the socio-economic context in southern Africa, the paper identifies options for addressing these institutional and policy constraints in order to facilitate adoption of multi-output land use practices by farmers and unlock their potential to meet food production goals for individual households and environmental services for the wider society.Keywords: Adoption, Agri-Environmental quality, Environmental services, Natural resource economics, Payment for environmental services, Science-policy linkage

Accurate crop yield predictions from modelling tree-crop interactions in gliricidia-maize agroforestry

Agroforestry systems, containing mixtures of trees and crops, are often promoted because the net effect of interactions between woody and herbaceous components is thought to be positive if evaluated over the long term. From a modelling perspective, agroforestry has received much less attention than monocultures. However, for the potential of agroforestry to impact food security in Africa to be fully evaluated, models are required that accurately predict crop yields in the presence of trees. The positive effects of the fertiliser tree gliricidia (Gliricidia sepium) on maize (Zea mays) are well documented and use of this tree-crop combination to increase crop production is expanding in several African countries. Simulation of gliricidia-maize interactions can complement field trials by predicting crop response across a broader range of contexts than can be achieved by experimentation alone. We tested a model developed within the APSIM framework. APSIM models are widely used for one dimensional (1D), process-based simulation of crops such as maize and wheat in monoculture. The Next Generation version of APSIM was used here to test a 2D agroforestry model where maize growth and yield varied spatially in response to interactions with gliricidia. The simulations were done using data for gliricidia-maize interactions over two years (short-term) in Kenya and 11 years (long-term) in Malawi, with differing proportions of trees and crops and contrasting management. Predictions were compared with observations for maize grain yield, and soil water content. Simulations in Kenya were in agreement with observed yields reflecting lower observed maize germination in rows close to gliricidia. Soil water content was also adequately simulated, except for a tendency for slower simulated drying of the soil profile each season. Simulated maize yields in Malawi were also in agreement with observations. Trends in soil carbon over a decade were similar to those measured, but could not be statistically evaluated. These results show that the agroforestry model in APSIM Next Generation adequately represented tree-crop interactions in these two contrasting agro-ecological conditions and agroforestry practices. Further testing of the model is warranted to explore tree-crop interactions under a wider range of environmental conditions

A simple method of formulating least-cost diets for smallholder dairy production in subSaharan Africa,”

Smallholder dairy farmers in sub-Saharan Africa are constrained by inadequate supply of good quality protein sources particularly during the dry season. Commercial protein concentrates are expensive and not readily accessible. Multipurpose forage legumes and other non-conventional protein sources available on-farm have been promoted as alternative cheaper protein sources. The major problem faced by smallholder dairy farmers however is the formulation of diets balanced for the key nutrients and also being cost-efficient. This paper presents a step by step spreadsheet based procedure of diet formulation for smallholder dairy production. The procedure ensures that the diet is balanced for all the key nutrients, is low-cost and the user has significant control over the formulation process. An example using this formulation method incorporating the fodder legumes Leucaena diversifolia, Leucaena pallida, Leucaena esculenta, Acacia angustissima and Calliandra calothyrsus indicate a cost reduction from 10% on C. calothyrsus to 30% on L. diversifolia inclusion when compared to the conventional dairy meal concentrate (US$ 0.34/kg). This ration formulation method is recommended for use by livestock extension advisors and smallholder dairy farmers to quickly formulate low-cost diets using locally available feed sources so as to optimise the feeding of dairy animals at the farm level

In silico analyses of diversity and dissemination of antimicrobial resistance genes and mobile genetics elements, for plasmids of enteric pathogens

IntroductionThe antimicrobial resistance (AMR) mobilome plays a key role in the dissemination of resistance genes encoded by mobile genetics elements (MGEs) including plasmids, transposons (Tns), and insertion sequences (ISs). These MGEs contribute to the dissemination of multidrug resistance (MDR) in enteric bacterial pathogens which have been considered as a global public health risk.MethodsTo further understand the diversity and distribution of AMR genes and MGEs across different plasmid types, we utilized multiple sequence-based computational approaches to evaluate AMR-associated plasmid genetics. A collection of 1,309 complete plasmid sequences from Gammaproteobacterial species, including 100 plasmids from each of the following 14 incompatibility (Inc) types: A/C, BO, FIA, FIB, FIC, FIIA, HI1, HI2, I1, K, M, N, P except W, where only 9 sequences were available, was extracted from the National Center for Biotechnology Information (NCBI) GenBank database using BLAST tools. The extracted FASTA files were analyzed using the AMRFinderPlus web-based tools to detect antimicrobial, disinfectant, biocide, and heavy metal resistance genes and ISFinder to identify IS/Tn MGEs within the plasmid sequences.Results and DiscussionIn silico prediction based on plasmid replicon types showed that the resistance genes were diverse among plasmids, yet multiple genes were widely distributed across the plasmids from enteric bacterial species. These findings provide insights into the diversity of resistance genes and that MGEs mediate potential transmission of these genes across multiple plasmid replicon types. This notion was supported by the observation that many IS/Tn MGEs and resistance genes known to be associated with them were common across multiple different plasmid types. Our results provide critical insights about how the diverse population of resistance genes that are carried by the different plasmid types can allow for the dissemination of AMR across enteric bacteria. The results also highlight the value of computational-based approaches and in silico analyses for the assessment of AMR and MGEs, which are important elements of molecular epidemiology and public health outcomes

Reference soil groups map of Ethiopia based on legacy data and machine learning-technique: EthioSoilGrids 1.0

Up-to-date digital soil resource information and its comprehensive understanding are crucial to supporting crop production and sustainable agricultural development. Generating such information through conventional approaches consumes time and resources, and is difficult for developing countries. In Ethiopia, the soil resource map that was in use is qualitative, dated (since 1984), and small scaled (1 : 2 M), which limit its practical applicability. Yet, a large legacy soil profile dataset accumulated over time and the emerging machine-learning modeling approaches can help in generating a high-quality quantitative digital soil map that can provide better soil information. Thus, a group of researchers formed a Coalition of the Willing for soil and agronomy data-sharing and collated about 20 000 soil profile data and stored them in a central database. The data were cleaned and harmonized using the latest soil profile data template and 14 681 profile data were prepared for modeling. Random forest was used to develop a continuous quantitative digital map of 18 World Reference Base (WRB) soil groups at 250 m resolution by integrating environmental covariates representing major soil-forming factors. The map was validated by experts through a rigorous process involving senior soil specialists or pedologists checking the map based on purposely selected district-level geographic windows across Ethiopia. The map is expected to be of tremendous value for soil management and other land-based development planning, given its improved spatial resolution and quantitative digital representation.</p

Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations. Methods The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model—a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates—with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality—which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds. Findings The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2–100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1–290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1–211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4–48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3–37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7–9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles. Interpretation Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere

Global fertility in 204 countries and territories, 1950–2021, with forecasts to 2100: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background Accurate assessments of current and future fertility—including overall trends and changing population age structures across countries and regions—are essential to help plan for the profound social, economic, environmental, and geopolitical challenges that these changes will bring. Estimates and projections of fertility are necessary to inform policies involving resource and health-care needs, labour supply, education, gender equality, and family planning and support. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 produced up-to-date and comprehensive demographic assessments of key fertility indicators at global, regional, and national levels from 1950 to 2021 and forecast fertility metrics to 2100 based on a reference scenario and key policy-dependent alternative scenarios. Methods To estimate fertility indicators from 1950 to 2021, mixed-effects regression models and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression were used to synthesise data from 8709 country-years of vital and sample registrations, 1455 surveys and censuses, and 150 other sources, and to generate age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) for 5-year age groups from age 10 years to 54 years. ASFRs were summed across age groups to produce estimates of total fertility rate (TFR). Livebirths were calculated by multiplying ASFR and age-specific female population, then summing across ages 10–54 years. To forecast future fertility up to 2100, our Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) forecasting model was based on projections of completed cohort fertility at age 50 years (CCF50; the average number of children born over time to females from a specified birth cohort), which yields more stable and accurate measures of fertility than directly modelling TFR. CCF50 was modelled using an ensemble approach in which three sub-models (with two, three, and four covariates variously consisting of female educational attainment, contraceptive met need, population density in habitable areas, and under-5 mortality) were given equal weights, and analyses were conducted utilising the MR-BRT (meta-regression—Bayesian, regularised, trimmed) tool. To capture time-series trends in CCF50 not explained by these covariates, we used a first-order autoregressive model on the residual term. CCF50 as a proportion of each 5-year ASFR was predicted using a linear mixed-effects model with fixed-effects covariates (female educational attainment and contraceptive met need) and random intercepts for geographical regions. Projected TFRs were then computed for each calendar year as the sum of single-year ASFRs across age groups. The reference forecast is our estimate of the most likely fertility future given the model, past fertility, forecasts of covariates, and historical relationships between covariates and fertility. We additionally produced forecasts for multiple alternative scenarios in each location: the UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) for education is achieved by 2030; the contraceptive met need SDG is achieved by 2030; pro-natal policies are enacted to create supportive environments for those who give birth; and the previous three scenarios combined. Uncertainty from past data inputs and model estimation was propagated throughout analyses by taking 1000 draws for past and present fertility estimates and 500 draws for future forecasts from the estimated distribution for each metric, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) given as the 2·5 and 97·5 percentiles of the draws. To evaluate the forecasting performance of our model and others, we computed skill values—a metric assessing gain in forecasting accuracy—by comparing predicted versus observed ASFRs from the past 15 years (2007–21). A positive skill metric indicates that the model being evaluated performs better than the baseline model (here, a simplified model holding 2007 values constant in the future), and a negative metric indicates that the evaluated model performs worse than baseline. Findings During the period from 1950 to 2021, global TFR more than halved, from 4·84 (95% UI 4·63–5·06) to 2·23 (2·09–2·38). Global annual livebirths peaked in 2016 at 142 million (95% UI 137–147), declining to 129 million (121–138) in 2021. Fertility rates declined in all countries and territories since 1950, with TFR remaining above 2·1—canonically considered replacement-level fertility—in 94 (46·1%) countries and territories in 2021. This included 44 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, which was the super-region with the largest share of livebirths in 2021 (29·2% [28·7–29·6]). 47 countries and territories in which lowest estimated fertility between 1950 and 2021 was below replacement experienced one or more subsequent years with higher fertility; only three of these locations rebounded above replacement levels. Future fertility rates were projected to continue to decline worldwide, reaching a global TFR of 1·83 (1·59–2·08) in 2050 and 1·59 (1·25–1·96) in 2100 under the reference scenario. The number of countries and territories with fertility rates remaining above replacement was forecast to be 49 (24·0%) in 2050 and only six (2·9%) in 2100, with three of these six countries included in the 2021 World Bank-defined low-income group, all located in the GBD super-region of sub-Saharan Africa. The proportion of livebirths occurring in sub-Saharan Africa was forecast to increase to more than half of the world's livebirths in 2100, to 41·3% (39·6–43·1) in 2050 and 54·3% (47·1–59·5) in 2100. The share of livebirths was projected to decline between 2021 and 2100 in most of the six other super-regions—decreasing, for example, in south Asia from 24·8% (23·7–25·8) in 2021 to 16·7% (14·3–19·1) in 2050 and 7·1% (4·4–10·1) in 2100—but was forecast to increase modestly in the north Africa and Middle East and high-income super-regions. Forecast estimates for the alternative combined scenario suggest that meeting SDG targets for education and contraceptive met need, as well as implementing pro-natal policies, would result in global TFRs of 1·65 (1·40–1·92) in 2050 and 1·62 (1·35–1·95) in 2100. The forecasting skill metric values for the IHME model were positive across all age groups, indicating that the model is better than the constant prediction. Interpretation Fertility is declining globally, with rates in more than half of all countries and territories in 2021 below replacement level. Trends since 2000 show considerable heterogeneity in the steepness of declines, and only a small number of countries experienced even a slight fertility rebound after their lowest observed rate, with none reaching replacement level. Additionally, the distribution of livebirths across the globe is shifting, with a greater proportion occurring in the lowest-income countries. Future fertility rates will continue to decline worldwide and will remain low even under successful implementation of pro-natal policies. These changes will have far-reaching economic and societal consequences due to ageing populations and declining workforces in higher-income countries, combined with an increasing share of livebirths among the already poorest regions of the world