Evaluating the Eleventh District's Beige Book

In this study, Nathan Balke and Mine Yucel ask whether the Eleventh Federal Reserve District's Beige Book description contains timely information about economic activity within the District. They examine whether the Beige Book description tracks current Texas real gross state product (GSP) growth and current Texas employment growth. They also study whether the Beige Book has information about growth not present in other regional indicators that would have been available to analysts at the time of the Beige Book's release. They find that both the Beige Book summary and the average across sectors reflect Texas GSP and employment growth very well. These two measures of the Beige Book also have predictive content for one quarter ahead GSP growth. Balke and Yucel also find that the Eleventh District's Beige Book has information content for Texas economic activity over and above other state economic indicators such as Texas employment growth, personal income, or sectoral employment growth. Because the Beige Book is released at least one month earlier than employment data and at least two years before GSP data, its timeliness makes it a good tool for current regional economic analysis.Employment (Economic theory) ; Unemployment ; Economic indicators

Sectoral Price Changes and Output Growth: Supply and Demand in General Equilibrium

Price changes and output growth, both at the aggregate and the sectoral level, appear to be negatively correlated. At a basic level, this suggests that sectoral “supply” shocks are more prevalent than sectoral “demand” shocks. However, it is not clear what these sectoral price-output correlations mean once one thinks in terms of general equilibrium. To help us understand the implication of these price-output correlations, this paper examines a multi-sector dynamic general equilibrium model that includes sectoral technology shocks and sectoral demand shocks, as well as aggregate money growth shocks. We show that while a model driven solely by sectoral technology shocks can generate “plausible” price-output correlations, “demand” shocks, particularly sectoral demand shocks, are needed for the model to generate the sectoral price-output correlations observed in the data. We also show that technology shocks do not always look like “supply” shocks. Positive technology shocks to sectors producing goods that are used for investment frequently result in increases in output and prices in other sectors while positive technology shocks to sectors producing goods that are used primarily as intermediate inputs look like supply shocks in other sectors.

System for plotting subsoil structure and method therefor

Data for use in producing a tomograph of subsoil structure between boreholes is derived by pacing spaced geophones in one borehole, on the Earth surface if desired, and by producing a sequence of shots at spaced apart locations in the other borehole. The signals, detected by each of the geophones from the various shots, are processed either on a time of arrival basis, or on the basis of signal amplitude, to provide information of the characteristics of a large number of incremental areas between the boreholes. Such information is useable to produce a tomograph of the subsoil structure between the boreholes. By processing signals of relatively high frequencies, e.g., up to 100 Hz, and by closely spacing the geophones, a high resolution tomograph can be produced

Diffusion of solar cosmic rays and the power spectrum of the interplanetary magnetic field

Solar cosmic ray diffusion and interplanetary magnetic field power spectru

Submission to ICSID in breach of the convention: disputes in international civil engineering contracts.

PhDThe World Bank produces sample bidding documents for use by its member countries to prepare tender forms and contract conditions for Bankfinanced civil engineering construction contracts. The contract conditions provide for arbitration of disputes and parties to a contract may choose to submit to the International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes (ICSID) which was established by members of the World Bank for the settlement of investment disputes between states and nationals of other states. The objectives of the Thesis are to (i) examine the legality of generally submitting disputes in international civil engineering contracts to ICSID arbitration, (ii) provide an analysis of ICSID as an international arbitral institution and (iii) discuss the legal aspects of submission of disputes to ICSID arbitration in breach of the Convention that established ICSID. Chapters One, Two and Three are devoted to describing the importance of civil engineering works to economic growth and arbitration as a method of resolution of disputes. An analysis is made of the fundamentals and complexity of the arbitral process and the interfacing between legal systems, national laws and international law in international arbitrations. Chapter Four traces the genesis of ICSID and Chapter Five examines critically the salient features of ICSID arbitration, which according to the Thesis are not all exclusive to ICSID arbitration. Chapters Six and Seven analyse in depth ICSID jurisdiction ratione personae and ratione materiae. Chapter Eight argues that disputes in freestanding international civil engineering contracts are not investment disputes and that submission to ICSID is in breach of the Convention. Chapters Nine and Ten discuss the legitimate role of ICSID in developing rules of international economic law and conclude by recommending that ICSID should not detract from that role by becoming just another arbitral institution in. the business of arbitration

Oil price shocks and U.S. economic activity: an international perspective

Oil price shocks are thought to have played a prominent role in U.S. economic activity. In this paper, we employ Bayesian methods with a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of world economic activity to identify the various sources of oil price shocks and economic fluctuation and to assess their effects on U.S. economic activity. We find that changes in oil prices are best understood as endogenous. Oil price shocks in the 1970s and early 1980s and the 2000s reflect differing mixes of shifts in oil supply and demand, and differing sources of oil price shocks have differing effects on economic activity. We also find that U.S. output fluctuations owe mostly to domestic shocks, with productivity shocks contributing to weakness in the 1970s and 1980s and strength in the 2000s.Petroleum products - Prices ; Petroleum industry and trade ; Economic conditions - United States ; Business cycles

Oil Price Shocks and U.S. Economic Activity: An International Perspective

Oil price shocks are thought to have played a prominent role in U.S. economic activity. In this paper, we employ Bayesian methods with a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of world economic activity to identify the various sources of oil price shocks and economic fluctuation and to assess their effects on U.S. economic activity. We find that changes in oil prices are best understood as endogenous. Oil price shocks in the 1970s and early 1980s and the 2000s reflect differing mixes of shifts in oil supply and demand, and differing sources of oil price shocks have differing effects on economic activity. We also find that U.S. output fluctuations owe mostly to domestic shocks, with productivity shocks contributing to weakness in the 1970s and 1980s and strength in the 2000s.oil price, international business cycles, general equilibrium, Bayesian estimation

An international perspective on oil price shocks and U.S. economic activity

The effect of oil price shocks on U.S. economic activity seems to have changed since the mid-1990s. A variety of explanations have been offered for the seeming change—including better luck, the reduced energy intensity of the U.S. economy, a more flexible economy, more experience with oil price shocks and better monetary policy. These explanations point to a weakening of the relationship between oil prices shocks and economic activity rather than the fundamentally different response that may be evident since the mid-1990s.> ; Using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of world economic activity, we employ Bayesian methods to assess how economic activity responds to oil price shocks arising from supply shocks and demand shocks originating in the United States or elsewhere in the world. We find that both oil supply and oil demand shocks have contributed significantly to oil price fluctuations and that U.S. output fluctuations are derived largely from domestic shocks.Petroleum industry and trade ; Petroleum products - Prices ; International trade ; Economic conditions - United States

Hydrogen-silicon carbide interactions

A study of the thermochemistry and kinetics of hydrogen environmental attack of silicon carbide was conducted for temperatures in the range from 1100 C to 1400 C. Thermodynamic maps based on the parameters of pressure and oxygen/moisture content were constructed. With increasing moisture levels, four distinct regions of attack were identified. Each region is defined by the thermodynamically stable solid phases. The theoretically stable solid phases of Region 1 are silicon carbide and silicon. Experimental evidence is provided to support this thermodynamic prediction. Silicon carbide is the single stable solid phase in Region 2. Active attack of the silicon carbide in this region occurs by the formation of gases of SiO, CO, CH4, SiH4, and SiH. Analysis of the kinetics of reaction for Region 2 at 1300 C show the attack of the silicon carbide to be controlled by gas phase diffusion of H2O to the sample. Silicon carbide and silica are the stable phases common to Regions 3 and 4. These two regions are characterized by the passive oxidation of silicon carbide and formation of a protective silica layer