Estimating a population cumulative incidence under calendar time trends

Abstract Background The risk of a disease or psychiatric disorder is frequently measured by the age-specific cumulative incidence. Cumulative incidence estimates are often derived in cohort studies with individuals recruited over calendar time and with the end of follow-up governed by a specific date. It is common practice to apply the Kaplan\u2013Meier or Aalen\u2013Johansen estimator to the total sample and report either the estimated cumulative incidence curve or just a single point on the curve as a description of the disease risk. Methods We argue that, whenever the disease or disorder of interest is influenced by calendar time trends, the total sample Kaplan\u2013Meier and Aalen\u2013Johansen estimators do not provide useful estimates of the general risk in the target population. We present some alternatives to this type of analysis. Results We show how a proportional hazards model may be used to extrapolate disease risk estimates if proportionality is a reasonable assumption. If not reasonable, we instead advocate that a more useful description of the disease risk lies in the age-specific cumulative incidence curves across strata given by time of entry or perhaps just the end of follow-up estimates across all strata. Finally, we argue that a weighted average of these end of follow-up estimates may be a useful summary measure of the disease risk within the study period. Conclusions Time trends in a disease risk will render total sample estimators less useful in observational studies with staggered entry and administrative censoring. An analysis based on proportional hazards or a stratified analysis may be better alternatives

A Non Platinum Regimen for the Treatment of Recurrent or Metastatic Squamous Cell Carcinoma of the Head and Neck Region. Results From an Extended Phase II Study With Paclitaxel and Capecitabine

BackgroundThis study presents the results of an extended phase II study originally published in 2007, regarding the antitumor activity and toxicity of a non-platinum containing regimen with paclitaxel and capecitabine for the treatment of recurrent or disseminated squamous cell carcinoma of the head and neck region. Fifty patients were included in the original study.Materials and methodsA total of 183 patients with recurrent or disseminated squamous cell carcinoma were eventually included in the extended study. There were 37 women and 146 men. The mean age was 56 years. Performance status (WHO) was as follows: WHO 0:31, WHO 1:107, and WHO 2:45 patients. The treatment consisted of paclitaxel 175 mg/m2, once every third week and capecitabine 825 mg/m2 p.o. b.i.d for 2 weeks.ResultsThe overall response rate (complete response and partial response) according to the WHO criteria was: 33% (CI 26–40). The median progression-free survival was 4.8 (CI 4.2–5.4) months. The median overall survival (OS) was 8.9 (CI 7.6–9.5) months. Compliance was good. Of the 1,131 cycles, only 13% had to be administered with a reduced dose and/or postponed to a later date. Toxicity was mild and grades 3 and 4 toxicities were uncommon. Two toxic deaths were registered though.ConclusionThe response rate and the OS for this low toxicity regimen makes it a feasible alternative for not cisplatin eligible patients

PAPP-A2 Deficiency Does Not Exacerbate the Phenotype of a Mouse Model of Intrauterine Growth Restriction

BACKGROUND: Pregnancy-associated plasma protein-A2 (PAPP-A2) is consistently upregulated in the placentae of pregnancies complicated by preeclampsia and fetal growth restriction. The causes and significance of this upregulation remain unknown, but it has been hypothesized that it is a compensatory response to improve placental growth and development. We predicted that, if the upregulation of PAPP-A2 in pregnancy complications reflects a compensatory response, then deletion of Pappa2 in mice would exacerbate the effects of a gene deletion previously reported to impair placental development: deficiency of matrix metalloproteinase-9 (MMP9). METHODS: We crossed mice carrying deletions in Pappa2 and Mmp9 to produce pregnancies deficient in one, both, or neither of these genes. We measured pregnancy rates, number of conceptuses, fetal and placental growth, and the histological structure of the placenta. RESULTS: We found no evidence of reduced fertility, increased pregnancy loss, or increased fetal demise in Mmp9 -/- females. In pregnancies segregating for Mmp9, Mmp9 -/- fetuses were lighter than their siblings with a functional Mmp9 allele. However, deletion of Pappa2 did not exacerbate or reveal any effects of Mmp9 deficiency. We observed some effects of Pappa2 deletion on placental structure that were independent of Mmp9 deficiency, but no effects on fetal growth. At G16, male fetuses were heavier than female fetuses and had heavier placentae with larger junctional zones and smaller labyrinths. CONCLUSIONS: Effects of Mmp9 deficiency were not exacerbated by the deletion of Pappa2. Our results do not provide evidence that upregulation of placental PAPP-A2 represents a mechanism to compensate for impaired fetal growth. &nbsp

Independent prognostic value of angiogenesis and the level of plasminogen activator inhibitor type 1 in breast cancer patients

Tumour angiogenesis and the levels of plasminogen activator inhibitor type I (PAI-I) are both informative prognostic markers in breast cancer. In cell cultures and in animal model systems, PAI-I has a proangiogenic effect. To evaluate the interrelationship of angiogenesis and the PAI-I level in breast cancer, we have evaluated the prognostic value of those factors in a total of 228 patients with primary, unilateral, invasive breast cancer, evaluated at a median follow-up time of 12 years. Microvessels were immunohistochemically stained by antibodies against CD34 and quantitated by the Chalkley counting technique. The levels of PAI-I and its target proteinase uPA in tumour extracts were analysed by ELISA. The Chalkley count was not correlated with the levels of uPA or PAI-I. High values of uPA, PAI-I, and Chalkley count were all significantly correlated with a shorter recurrence-free survival and overall survival. In the multivariate analysis, the uPA level did not show independent prognostic impact for any of the analysed end points. In contrast, the risk of recurrence was independently and significantly predicted by both the PAI-I level and the Chalkley count, with a hazard ratio (95% CI) of 1.6 (1.01-2.69) and 1.4 (1.02-1.81), respectively. For overall survival, the Chalkley count, but not PAI-I, was of significant independent prognostic value. The risk of death was 1.7 (1,30-2.15) for Chalkley counts in the upper tertile compared to the lower one. We conclude that the PAI-I level and the Chalkley count are independent prognostic markers for recurrence-free survival in patients with primary breast cancer, suggesting that the prognostic impact of PAI-I is not only based on its involvement in angiogenesis. (C) 2003 Cancer Research UK

Regulation of the Escherichia coli HipBA Toxin-Antitoxin System by Proteolysis

Bacterial populations produce antibiotic-tolerant persister cells. A number of recent studies point to the involvement of toxin/antitoxin (TA) modules in persister formation. hipBA is a type II TA module that codes for the HipB antitoxin and the HipA toxin. HipA is an EF-Tu kinase, which causes protein synthesis inhibition and dormancy upon phosphorylation of its substrate. Antitoxins are labile proteins that are degraded by one of the cytosolic ATP-dependent proteases. We followed the rate of HipB degradation in different protease deficient strains and found that HipB was stabilized in a lon- background. These findings were confirmed in an in vitro degradation assay, showing that Lon is the main protease responsible for HipB proteolysis. Moreover, we demonstrated that degradation of HipB is dependent on the presence of an unstructured carboxy-terminal stretch of HipB that encompasses the last 16 amino acid residues. Further, substitution of the conserved carboxy-terminal tryptophan of HipB to alanine or even the complete removal of this 16 residue fragment did not alter the affinity of HipB for hipBA operator DNA or for HipA indicating that the major role of this region of HipB is to control HipB degradation and hence HipA-mediated persistence

In vitro radiosensitivity of tumour cells and fibroblasts derived from head and neck carcinomas: mutual relationship and correlation with clinical data

The aim was to characterize the variation in the cellular in vitro radiosensitivities in squamous cell carcinomas of the head and neck, and to test for a possible correlation between different measures of radiosensitivity and the clinical and histopathological data. Cellular in vitro radiosensitivities were assessed in tumour biopsies from 71 patients using the modified Courtenay–Mills soft agar clonogenic assay combined with an immunocytochemical analysis. Radiosensitivity was quantified as the surviving fraction after a radiation dose of 2 Gy irrespective of cell type (overall SF2), or based on identification of cell type (tumour cell SF2, fibroblast SF2). Sixty-three biopsies were from primary tumours, and eight were from recurrences. Overall plating efficiency ranged from 0.005 to 1.60% with a median of 0.052%. The majority of the colonies obtained from the biopsies were fibroblast marker-positive; the proportion of tumour marker-positive colonies ranged from 1 to 88% with a median of 15%. The median overall SF2 was 0.47 (range 0.24–0.96), the median tumour cell SF2 was 0.50 (range 0.11–1.0) and the median fibroblast SF2 was 0.49 (range 0.24–1.0). Comparing data from independent experiments, the overall SF2 was significantly correlated with the SF2 of fibroblasts (2P = 0.006) but not with the tumour cell SF2. The tumour cell and fibroblast radiosensitivities measured in the same individuals were not correlated (r = 0.06, 95% CI [–0.19, 0.30]). This finding seems to preclude a strong correlation between the radiosensitivity of tumour cells and fibroblasts. Concerning the clinical characteristics, neither of the measures of tumour radiosensitivity was correlated with T- and N-category, stage, tumour size, sex and age. However, the tumour cell radiosensitivity decreased with increasing grade of histopathological differentiation (2P = 0.012). The same tendency was found in two independent analyses of the same patient material. This correlation was not significant in case of the overall SF2 or the fibroblast SF2. © 1999 Cancer Research Campaig