Reflections on Jogee: overwhelming supervening act

The Supreme Court’s judgment in Jogee and Ruddock v The Queen1 substantially altered the criminal law’s approach to secondary liability. However, the judgment left numer- ous important issues unresolved. In particular, the circum- stances in which a secondary party is excused liability on the basis of an overwhelming supervening act (“OSA”) of the principal remains unclear. The Court of Appeal recently discussed OSA in Lanning and Camille,2 but it too left im- portant questions unanswered. In this article we examine this concept, which is being encountered with increasing frequency in practice

Understanding participation and non-participation in sport amongst Black and minority ethnic groups in Wales

Like the other home nation sports councils, Sport Wales has a responsibility to increase participation, improve sporting performance and raise standards in sport and physical recreation. For some time the sports councils in the UK have been concerned that people from Black and minority ethnic (BME) groups may not be getting as much from sport as they might (e.g. the Sports Equity Index (Sport England, 2001)). The concern with increasing participation is multidimensional: it might serve to recruit new talent; allows sectors of society to enjoy what are thought to be the benefits of sport; and in so doing help to unite the nation. However, as recognised by the Equality Impact Assessment that was conducted by Sport Wales, there has been a shortage of research around sport participation by Black and minority ethnic communities. Thus, the current research is closely aligned with the aim of increasing participation and understanding non-participation. The research also addresses the identified need for further investigation into identified differences in participation between different equalities groups. This project, commissioned by Sport Wales, has been undertaken by the Institute for Sport, Physical Activity and Leisure (ISPAL) in conjunction with Ecorys. It is a response to the strategy, action plans and operational plans of Sport Wales that embrace diversity and inclusiveness. These policy and operational documents consider ethnicity alongside other protected characteristics and a concern to address poverty and deprivation by operating in conjunction with other agencies. The research reported here will help to establish what resonance people in Black and minority ethnic groups have with the goal of ensuring ‘a thriving sporting community, where all individuals feel safe, welcome and free from discrimination’ (Sport Wales, Equality And Diversity Operational Action Plan)

Dynamics of Multi-Player Games

We analyze the dynamics of competitions with a large number of players. In our model, n players compete against each other and the winner is decided based on the standings: in each competition, the mth ranked player wins. We solve for the long time limit of the distribution of the number of wins for all n and m and find three different scenarios. When the best player wins, the standings are most competitive as there is one-tier with a clear differentiation between strong and weak players. When an intermediate player wins, the standings are two-tier with equally-strong players in the top tier and clearly-separated players in the lower tier. When the worst player wins, the standings are least competitive as there is one tier in which all of the players are equal. This behavior is understood via scaling analysis of the nonlinear evolution equations.Comment: 8 pages, 8 figure

Analysing decision logs to understand decision-making in serious crime investigations

Objective: To study decision-making by detectives when investigating serious crime through the examination of Decision Logs to explore hypothesis generation and evidence selection. Background: Decision logs are used to record and justify decisions made during serious crime investigations. The complexity of investigative decision-making is well documented, as are the errors associated with miscarriages of justice and inquests. The use of decision logs has not been the subject of an empirical investigation, yet they offer an important window into the nature of investigative decision-making in dynamic, time-critical environments. Method: A sample of decision logs from British police forces was analyzed qualitatively and quantitatively to explore hypothesis generation and evidence selection by police detectives. Results: Analyses revealed diversity in documentation of decisions that did not correlate with case type, and identified significant limitations of the decision log approach to supporting investigative decision-making. Differences emerged between experienced and less experienced officers’ decision log records in exploration of alternative hypotheses, generation of hypotheses, and sources of evidential enquiry opened over phase of investigation. Conclusion: The practical use of decision logs is highly constrained by their format and context of use. Despite this, decision log records suggest that experienced detectives display strategic decision-making to avoid confirmation and satisficing that affect less experienced detectives. Application: Potential applications of this research include both training in case documentation and the development of new decision log media that encourage detectives, irrespective of experience, to generate multiple hypotheses and optimize the timely selection of evidence to test them

The statistical laws of popularity: Universal properties of the box office dynamics of motion pictures

Are there general principles governing the process by which certain products or ideas become popular relative to other (often qualitatively similar) competitors? To investigate this question in detail, we have focused on the popularity of movies as measured by their box-office income. We observe that the log-normal distribution describes well the tail (corresponding to the most successful movies) of the empirical distributions for the total income, the income on the opening week, as well as, the weekly income per theater. This observation suggests that popularity may be the outcome of a linear multiplicative stochastic process. In addition, the distributions of the total income and the opening income show a bimodal form, with the majority of movies either performing very well or very poorly in theaters. We also observe that the gross income per theater for a movie at any point during its lifetime is, on average, inversely proportional to the period that has elapsed after its release. We argue that (i) the log-normal nature of the tail, (ii) the bimodal form of the overall gross income distribution, and (iii) the decay of gross income per theater with time as a power law, constitute the fundamental set of {\em stylized facts} (i.e., empirical "laws") that can be used to explain other observations about movie popularity. We show that, in conjunction with an assumption of a fixed lower cut-off for income per theater below which a movie is withdrawn from a cinema, these laws can be used to derive a Weibull distribution for the survival probability of movies which agrees with empirical data. The connection to extreme-value distributions suggests that popularity can be viewed as a process where a product becomes popular by avoiding failure (i.e., being pulled out from circulation) for many successive time periods. We suggest that these results may apply to popularity in general.Comment: 14 pages, 11 figure

Development and validation of a rapid, generic measure of disease control from the patient's perspective: The IBD-Control questionnaire

Introduction: The use of patient reported outcome measures to support routine inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) care is not widespread and suggests that existing questionnaires lack relevance to day-to-day decisions or are too cumbersome to administer. We developed a simple, generic tool for capturing disease control from the patient's perspective to address these barriers. Methods: Development based on literature review, patient focus groups/interviews and a steering group, defining a limited set of generic questions. The ‘IBD-Control’ questionnaire comprises 13 items plus a visual analogue scale (VAS) (0–100). Prospective validation involved baseline completion of IBD-Control, quality of life (QoL) questionnaire (UK-IBD-Q), EuroQol (EQ-5D), Hospital Anxiety and Depression Score; and clinician assessment (blinded to questionnaire; recording Harvey-Bradshaw Index or Simple Clinical Colitis Activity Index; Global Clinician Rating; treatment outcome). Results: 299 patients returned baseline surveys (Crohn's disease, n=160; ulcerative colitis, n=139) and 138 attended for repeat visits. Completion time (mean; SD): 1 min 15 s; 25 s; Internal consistency: Cronbach's α for all 13 items (0.85); for subgroup of eight questions (‘IBD-Control-8’; 0.86). Strong correlation between IBD-Control-8 and IBD-Control-VAS (r=0.81). Test-retest reliability (2 week repeat): intra-class correlation=0.97 for IBD-Control-8 and 0.96 for IBD-Control-VAS. Construct validity: Moderate-to-strong correlations between IBD-Control-8 and IBD-Control-VAS versus activity indices, UK-IBD-Q and EQ-5D (utility) with r values 0.52–0.86. Discriminant validity (mean instrument scores for remission, mild, moderate or severe): p<0.001 (analysis of variance (ANOVA)). Sensitivity to change: Effect sizes: 0.76–1.44. Conclusions: The IBD-Control is a rapid, reliable, valid and sensitive instrument for measuring overall disease control from the patient's perspective. Unlike existing patient reported outcome measures, its simplicity, ease-of-use and generic applicability make it a candidate for supporting routine care