Stability First: Reflections Inspired by Otmar Issing's Success as the ECB's Chief Economist

In this paper, we review Otmar Issing's career as the ECB's inaugural chief economist and we document many notable successes. We try to infer some general principles that contributed to these successes and draw some lessons. In doing so, we review the evidence using Woodford%u2019s (2003) recent revival of the Wicksellian approach to monetary policy making. Suitably interpreted the baseline model can rationalize Issing%u2019s three guiding principles for successful policymaking. This baseline model, however, fails to account for the important role that monetary and financial analysis played in the conduct of policy during Issing%u2019s tenure. We propose an extension of the model to account for financial developments and show that this extended model substantially improves our understanding of ECB practice. We conclude by listing six open questions, relevant for the future of central banking in Europe that Issing may want to consider in case leisure allows.

The Decay of Debris Disks around Solar-Type Stars

We present a Spitzer MIPS study of the decay of debris disk excesses at 24 and 70 $\mu$m for 255 stars of types F4 - K2. We have used multiple tests, including consistency between chromospheric and X-ray activity and placement on the HR diagram, to assign accurate stellar ages. Within this spectral type range, at 24 $\mu$m, $13.6 \pm 2.8 \%$ of the stars younger than 5 Gyr have excesses at the 3$\sigma$ level or more, while none of the older stars do, confirming previous work. At 70 $\mu$m, $22.5 \pm 3.6\%$ of the younger stars have excesses at $\ge$ 3 $\sigma$ significance, while only $4.7^{+3.7}_{-2.2}$% of the older stars do. To characterize the far infrared behavior of debris disks more robustly, we double the sample by including stars from the DEBRIS and DUNES surveys. For the F4 - K4 stars in this combined sample, there is only a weak (statistically not significant) trend in the incidence of far infrared excess with spectral type (detected fractions of 21.9$^{+4.8}_{-4.3}\%$, late F; 16.5$^{+3.9}_{-3.3}\%$, G; and 16.9$^{+6.3}_{-5.0}\%$, early K). Taking this spectral type range together, there is a significant decline between 3 and 4.5 Gyr in the incidence of excesses with fractional luminosities just under $10^{-5}$. There is an indication that the timescale for decay of infrared excesses varies roughly inversely with the fractional luminosity. This behavior is consistent with theoretical expectations for passive evolution. However, more excesses are detected around the oldest stars than is expected from passive evolution, suggesting that there is late-phase dynamical activity around these stars.Comment: 46 pages. 7 figures. Accepted to Ap

Concentration effects of selected insecticides on brain acetylcholinesterase in the common carp (Cyprinus carpio L.)

The differential inhibition of acetylcholinesterase (AChE) by organophosphate (OP) and carbamate (C) is followed by the distinct duration of exposure effect on common carp AChE. Hence, in the present study in vivo exposure period effect and in vitro concentration-response of chlorfenvinphos, chlorpyrifos diazinon, and carbofuran were investigated on Cyprinus carpio L. AChE. Individuals of 1-year-old carp were exposed for 96 h to different concentrations of insecticides- after which AChE activity was measured in the brain. The highest concentrations of carbofuran (2.44 mg • L-1)- chlorfenvinphos (2.9 mgL-1), and diazinon (2.5 mg.L-1) killed at] the test animals after only 4 h, although there was no statistically significant difference from the control group's brain AChE activity. The lowest concentration significantly inhibited brain AChE after 96 h. Chlorfenvinphos was the most potent inhibitor in vivo and chlorpyrifos the least active inhibitor after 96 h of exposure time. In vitro experimentation with the same pesticide indicated that several concentrations inhibited 50% of the AChE activity (I50) ranging from 4.1 x 10-7 to 8.12X 10-4 M in both single inhibitory action and joint inhibitory effect. The results suggest that in biomonitoring programs carp brain AChE can be a good diagnostic tool for chronic OP nd C pollution

Geographic and Age-Based Variations in Medicare Reimbursement Among ASSH Members.

Background: The purpose of this study was to investigate how American Society for Surgery of the Hand (ASSH) members\u27 Medicare reimbursement depends on their geographical location and number of years in practice. Methods: Demographic data for surgeons who were active members of the ASSH in 2012 were obtained using information publicly available through the US Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS). Hand-surgeons-per-capita and average reimbursement per surgeon were calculated for each state. Regression analysis was performed to determine a relationship between (1) each state\u27s average reimbursement versus the number of ASSH members in that state, (2) average reimbursement versus number of hand surgeons per capita, and (3) total reimbursement from Medicare versus number of years in practice. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) was used to detect a difference in reimbursement based on categorical range of years as an ASSH member. Results: A total of 1667 ASSH members satisfied inclusion in this study. Although there was significant variation among states\u27 average reimbursement, reimbursement was not significantly correlated with the state\u27s hand surgeons per capita or total number of hand surgeons in that given state. Correlation between years as an ASSH member and average reimbursement was significant but non-linear; the highest reimbursements were seen in surgeons who had been ASSH members from 8 to 20 years. Conclusions: Peak reimbursement from Medicare for ASSH members appears to be related to the time of surgeons\u27 peak operative volume, rather than any age-based bias for or against treating Medicare beneficiaries. In addition, though geographic variation in reimbursement does exist, this does not appear to correlate with density or availability of hand surgeons

Finding the brightest galactic bulge microlensing events with a small aperture telescope and image subtraction

Following the suggestion of Gould and Depoy (1998) we investigate the feasibility of studying the brightest microlensing events towards the Galactic bulge using a small aperture (≈ 10 cm) telescope. We used one of the HAT telescopes to obtain 151 expos

Breaking and sustaining bifurcations in SN-Invariant equidistant economy

This paper elucidates the bifurcation mechanism of an equidistant economy in spatial economics. To this end, we derive the rules of secondary and further bifurcations as a major theoretical contribution of this paper. Then we combine them with pre-existing results of direct bifurcation of the symmetric group SN [Elmhirst, 2004]. Particular attention is devoted to the existence of invariant solutions which retain their spatial distributions when the value of the bifurcation parameter changes. Invariant patterns of an equidistant economy under the replicator dynamics are obtained. The mechanism of bifurcations from these patterns is elucidated. The stability of bifurcating branches is analyzed to demonstrate that most of them are unstable immediately after bifurcation. Numerical analysis of spatial economic models confirms that almost all bifurcating branches are unstable. Direct bifurcating curves connect the curves of invariant solutions, thereby creating a mesh-like network, which appears as threads of warp and weft. The theoretical bifurcation mechanism and numerical examples of networks advanced herein might be of great assistance in the study of spatial economics.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Survival estimates of bycatch individuals discarded from bivalve dredges

The fate of released bycatch is an issue of great interest for fisheries research and management. Survival experiments were carried out to assess the survival capacity of animals damaged and discarded during clam dredging operations. Three common bycatch species, two fish (Trachinus vipera; Dicologlossa cuneata) and one crab (Polybius henslowii), were collected during the sorting of catches from a commercial dredging boat. An arbitrary score scale was used to quantify the type and extent of damage to the organisms. Onboard, damaged individuals were placed in tanks containing seawater which were subsequently transferred to the laboratory. Survival experiments were conducted during the subsequent 48h. D. cuneata exhibited the lowest mortality after 48h (54%), followed by P. henslowii (65%) and T. vipera (81%). Despite the magnitude of the percentage mortalities determined, the average number of individuals estimated to die during a 15 minutes tow (standard commercial fishing time) was relatively small: 1.2, 3.24 and 11 for D. cuneata, T. vipera and P. henslowii, respectively. Nevertheless, when these figures are extrapolated to cover all the dredging fleet the impact of this practice on the populations of the species studied can be significant, particulary for D. cuneata

Seagrass Community at Kampung Ambong\u27s Water East Likupang Subdistrict, North Minahasa Regency

Penelitian ini dilakukan di Perairan Kampung Ambong Kecamatan Likupang Timur Kabupaten Minahasa Utara.Tujuan dari penelitian ini mengetahui komposisi jenis lamun dan menganalisis kepadatan, indeks dominasi, indeks keanekaragaman, indeks kemerataan. Pengambilan data dilakukan dengan metode garis transek. Penempatan transek di bagi menjadi 3 garis transek yang di letakkan tegak lurus garis pantai dengan panjang masing-masing garis transek 95 meter. Sedangkan jarak antara transek 1 dengan transek yang lain (2 dan 3) masing-masing 100 m. Dari hasil penelitian komposisi jumlah spesies lamun (seagrass) adalah 10. Kesepuluh spesies yang teridentifikasi yaitu: Cymodocea rotundata, Syringodium isoetifolium, Halophila decipiens, Halodule pinifolia, Cymodocea serrulata, Enhalus acoroides, Halphila minor, Thalassia hempricii, Halodule uninervis, Halophila spinulosa.Kepadatan masing-masing spesies diperoleh menunjukkan nilai tertinggi yaitu Cymodocea rotundata 2608 individu/m2, Syringodium isoetifolium 816 individu/m2, Halophila decipiens 420 individu/m2, Halodule pinifolia 292 individu/m2, Cymodocea serrulata 268 individu/m2, Enhalus acoroides 260 individu/m2, Halophila minor 224 individu/m2, Thalassia hempricii 160individu/m2, Halodule uninervis 124individu/m2, Halophila spinulosa 20 individu/m2. Sedangkan indeks dominasi diperoleh 0.3 berada dalam kategori rendah, artinya tidak ada spesies yang mendominasi di perairan tersebut. Indeks keanekaragaman diperoleh 1.65 berada dalam kategori sedang. Hal ini menunjukkan bahwa komunitas spesies dalam kondisihampir merata, karena memiliki peluang yang sama. Indeks kemerataan diperoleh 0.72 berada dalam kategori tinggi, karena memiliki padang lamun campuran

A multi-perspective integrated framework of critical success factors for supporting on-line shopping

E-commerce promotes economic growth by enabling online shops to compete within a global market scenario. There are critical success factors that permit to distinguish a good business on the Internet and this knowledge may allow reaching an important competitive advantage for business sustainability. As many disciplines are involved, when determining critical success factors, e-commerce requires an effective coordination and integration in a collaborative way. In e-commerce, as well as in any other ecosystem, the breaking down of some integrating elements may provoke a collapse on the whole system. The various stakeholders involved in a given business should, therefore, be involved and work together to achieve a high quality product that fully satisfies the end customer's needs and wishes. To meet the above requirement, this paper proposes a multi-perspective critical success factors (MPCSF) model for online shopping.This work has been supported by COMPETE: POCI-01-0145FEDER-007043 and FCT – The Foundation for Science and Technology within the Project Scope: UID/CEC/00319/2013.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio