Sequential two-player games with ambiguity

Author's pre-printIf players' beliefs are strictly nonadditive, the Dempster–Shafer updating rule can be used to define beliefs off the equilibrium path. We define an equilibrium concept in sequential two-person games where players update their beliefs with the Dempster–Shafer updating rule. We show that in the limit as uncertainty tends to zero, our equilibrium approximates Bayesian Nash equilibrium. We argue that our equilibrium can be used to define a refinement of Bayesian Nash equilibrium by imposing context-dependent constraints on beliefs under uncertainty.ESRC senior research fellowship scheme, H5242750259

Resolving the Ellsberg Paradox by Assuming that People Evaluate Repetitive Sampling

Ellsberg (1961) designed a decision experiment where most people violated the axioms of rational choice. He asked people to bet on the outcome of certain random events with known and with unknown probabilities. They usually preferred to bet on events with known probabilities. It is shown that this behavior is reasonable and in accordance with the axioms of rational decision making if it is assumed that people consider bets on events that are repeatedly sampled instead of just sampled once

Information and ambiguity: herd and contrarian behaviour in financial markets

“The final publication is available at Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11238-012-9334-3”The paper studies the impact of informational ambiguity on behalf of informed traders on history-dependent price behaviour in a model of sequential trading in nancial markets. Following Chateauneuf, Eichberger and Grant (2006), we use neo-additive capacities to model ambiguity. Such ambiguity and attitudes to it can engender herd and contrarian behaviour, and also cause the market to break down. The latter, herd and contrarian behaviour, can be reduced by the existence of a bid-ask spread.Research in part funded by ESRC grant RES-000-22-0650

Effects of disorder on carrier transport in Cu2SnS3

In recent years, further improvements in the efficiency of Cu2ZnSn S,Se 4 photovoltaic devices have been hampered due to several materials issues, including cation disorder. Cu2SnS3 is a promising new absorber material that has attracted significant interest in recent years. However, similar to CZTS, Cu2SnS3 displays cation disorder. In this work, we develop synthetic techniques to control the disorder in Cu2SnS3 thin films. By manipulating the disorder in this material, we observe crystal structure changes and detect improvements in the majority carrier hole transport. However, when the minority carrier electron transport was investigated using optical pump terahertz probe spectroscopy, minimal differences were observed between the ordered and disordered Cu2SnS3. By combining these results with first principles and Monte Carlo theoretical calculations, we are able to conclude that even ostensibly ordered Cu2SnS3 displays minority carrier transport properties corresponding to the disordered structure. The presence of extended planar defects in all samples, observed in TEM imaging, suggests that disorder is present even when it is not detectable using traditional structural characterization methods. The results of this study highlight some of the challenges to the further improvement of Cu2SnS3 based photovoltaics, and have implications for other disordered multinary semiconductors such as CZT

Generalized Method to Extract Carrier Diffusion Length from Photoconductivity Transients Cases of BiVO4, Halide Perovskites, and Amorphous and Crystalline Silicon

Long diffusion lengths of photoexcited charge carriers are crucial for high power conversion efficiencies of photoelectrochemical and photovoltaic devices. Time resolved photoconductance measurements are often used to determine diffusion lengths in conventional semiconductors. However, effects such as polaron formation or multiple trapping can lead to time varying mobilities and lifetimes that are not accounted for in the conventional calculation of the diffusion length. Here, a generalized analysis is presented that is valid for time dependent mobilities and time dependent lifetimes. The diffusion length is determined directly from the integral of a photoconductivity transient and can be applied regardless of the nature of carrier relaxation. To demonstrate our approach, photoconductivity transients are measured from 100 fs to 1 s by the combination of time resolved terahertz and microwave spectroscopy for BiVO4, one of the most studied metal oxide photoanodes for photoelectrochemical water splitting. The temporal evolution of charge carrier displacement is monitored and converges after about 100 ns to a diffusion length of about 15 nm, which rationalizes the photocurrent loss in the corresponding photoelectrochemical device. The presented method is further validated on a amp; 8722;Si H, c amp; 8722;Si, and halide perovskite, which underlines its potential to determine the diffusion length in a wide range of semiconductors, including disordered material

Ring closing reaction in diarylethene captured by femtosecond electron crystallography

The photoinduced ring-closing reaction in diarylethene, which serves as a model system for understanding reactive crossings through conical intersections, was directly observed with atomic resolution using femtosecond electron diffraction. Complementary ab initio calculations were also performed. Immediately following photoexcitation, subpicosecond structural changes associated with the formation of an open-ring excited-state intermediate were resolved. The key motion is the rotation of the thiophene rings, which significantly decreases the distance between the reactive carbon atoms prior to ring closing. Subsequently, on the few picosecond time scale, localized torsional motions of the carbon atoms lead to the formation of the closed-ring photoproduct. These direct observations of the molecular motions driving an organic chemical reaction were only made possible through the development of an ultrabright electron source to capture the atomic motions within the limited number of sampling frames and the low data acquisition rate dictated by the intrinsically poor thermal conductivity and limited photoreversibility of organic materials

Differential Expression of PD-L1 during Cell Cycle Progression of Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma

The expression of PD-L1 by tumor cells is mainly associated with its immunosuppressive effect. In fact, PD-1/PD-L1 immune checkpoint inhibitors demonstrated remarkable effects in advanced cancer patients including HNSCC. In this context, irradiation is currently being investigated as a synergistic treatment modality to immunotherapy. However, the majority of HNSCC patients still show little improvement or even hyperprogression. Interestingly, there is increasing evidence for additional cell-intrinsic functions of PD-L1 in tumor cells. In previous studies, we showed that PD-L1 has a strong influence on proliferation, migration, invasion, and survival after irradiation. We demonstrated that cellular expression and localization of PD-L1 differed depending on sensitivity to irradiation. Here, we show that PD-L1 is also differentially expressed during cell cycle progression of HNSCC. Furthermore, cellular localization of PD-L1 also changes depending on a particular cell cycle phase. Moreover, distinct observations occurred depending on the general differentiation status. Overall, the function of PD-L1 cannot be generalized. Rather, it depends on the differentiation status and microenvironment. PD-L1 expression and localization are variable, depending on different factors. These findings may provide insight into why differential response to PD-1/PD-L1 antibody therapy can occur. Detailed understanding of cell-intrinsic PD-L1 functions will further allow antibody-based immunotherapy to be optimized

Deceleration during 'real life' motor vehicle collisions – a sensitive predictor for the risk of sustaining a cervical spine injury?

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The predictive value of trauma impact for the severity of whiplash injuries has mainly been investigated in sled- and crash-test studies. However, very little data exist for real-life accidents. Therefore, the predictive value of the trauma impact as assessed by the change in velocity of the car due to the collision (ΔV) for the resulting cervical spine injuries were investigated in 57 cases after real-life car accidents.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>ΔV was determined for every car and clinical findings related to the cervical spine were assessed and classified according to the Quebec Task Force (QTF).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In our study, 32 (56%) subjects did not complain about symptoms and were therefore classified as QTF grade 0; 25 (44%) patients complained of neck pain: 8 (14%) were classified as QTF grade I, 6 (10%) as QTF grade II, and 11 (19%) as QTF grade IV. Only a slight correlation (r = 0.55) was found between the reported pain and ΔV. No relevant correlation was found between ΔV and the neck disability index (r = 0.46) and between ΔV and the QTF grade (r = 0.45) for any of the collision types. There was no ΔV threshold associated with acceptable sensitivity and specificity for the prognosis of a cervical spine injury.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The results of this study indicate that ΔV is not a conclusive predictor for cervical spine injury in real-life motor vehicle accidents. This is of importance for surgeons involved in medicolegal expertise jobs as well as patients who suffer from whiplash-associated disorders (WADs) after motor vehicle accidents.</p> <p>Trial registration</p> <p>The study complied with applicable German law and with the principles of the Helsinki Declaration and was approved by the institutional ethics commission.</p

Belief formation in a signaling game without common prior: an experiment

Using belief elicitation, the paper investigates the process of belief formation and evolution in a signaling game in which a common prior is not induced. Both prior and posterior beliefs of Receivers about Senders' types are elicited, as well as beliefs of Senders about Receivers' strategies. In the experiment, subjects often start with diffuse uniform beliefs and update them in view of observations. However, the speed of updating is influenced by the strength of initial beliefs. An interesting result is that beliefs about the prior distribution of types are updated slower than posterior beliefs, which incorporate Senders' strategies. In the medium run, for some specifications of game parameters, this leads to outcomes being significantly different from the outcomes of the game in which a common prior is induced. It is also shown that elicitation of beliefs does not considerably change the pattern of play in this game

Performance of the CMS Cathode Strip Chambers with Cosmic Rays

The Cathode Strip Chambers (CSCs) constitute the primary muon tracking device in the CMS endcaps. Their performance has been evaluated using data taken during a cosmic ray run in fall 2008. Measured noise levels are low, with the number of noisy channels well below 1%. Coordinate resolution was measured for all types of chambers, and fall in the range 47 microns to 243 microns. The efficiencies for local charged track triggers, for hit and for segments reconstruction were measured, and are above 99%. The timing resolution per layer is approximately 5 ns