Can treatment success with 5% lidocaine medicated plaster be predicted in cancer pain with neuropathic components or trigeminal neuropathic pain?

An expert group of 40 pain specialists from 16 countries performed a first assessment of the value of predictors for treatment success with 5% lidocaine-medicated plaster in the management of cancer pain with neuropathic components and trigeminal neuropathic pain. Results were based on the retrospective analysis of 68 case reports (sent in by participants in the 4 weeks prior to the conference) and the practical experience of the experts. Lidocaine plaster treatment was mostly successful for surgery or chemotherapy-related cancer pain with neuropathic components. A dose reduction of systemic pain treatment was observed in at least 50% of all cancer pain patients using the plaster as adjunct treatment; the presence of allodynia, hyperalgesia or pain quality provided a potential but not definitively clear indication of treatment success. In trigeminal neuropathic pain, continuous pain, severe allodynia, hyperalgesia, or postherpetic neuralgia or trauma as the cause of orofacial neuropathic pain were perceived as potential predictors of treatment success with lidocaine plaster. In conclusion, these findings provide a first assessment of the likelihood of treatment benefits with 5% lidocaine-medicated plaster in the management of cancer pain with neuropathic components and trigeminal neuropathic pain and support conducting large, well-designed multicenter studies

Ozone Response to Aircraft Emissions: Sensitivity Studies with Two-dimensional Models

Our first intercomparison/assessment of the effects of a proposed high-speed civil transport (HSCT) fleet on the stratosphere is presented. These model calculations should be considered more as sensitivity studies, primarily designed to serve the following purposes: (1) to allow for intercomparison of model predictions; (2) to focus on the range of fleet operations and engine specifications giving minimal environmental impact; and (3) to provide the basis for future assessment studies. The basic scenarios were chosen to be as realistic as possible, using the information available on anticipated developments in technology. They are not to be interpreted as a commitment or goal for environmental acceptability

Scale disparity and spectral transfer in anisotropic numerical turbulence

To study the effect of cancellations within long-range interactions on local isotropy at the small scales, we calculate explicitly the degree of cancellation in distant interactions in the simulations of Yeung & Brasseur and Yeung, Brasseur & Wang using the single scale disparity parameter 's' developed by Zhou. In the simulations, initially isotropic simulated turbulence was subjected to coherent anisotropic forcing at the large scales and the smallest scales were found to become anisotropic as a consequence of direct large-small scale couplings. We find that the marginally distant interactions in the simulation do not cancel out under summation and that the development of small-scale anisotropy is indeed a direct consequence of the distant triadic group, as argued by Yeung, et. al. A reduction of anisotropy at later times occurs as a result of the isotropizing influences of more local energy-cascading triadic interactions. Nevertheless, the local-to-nonlocal triadic group persists as an isotropizing influence at later times. We find that, whereas long-range interactions, in general, contribute little to net energy transfer into or out of a high wavenumber shell k, the anisotropic transfer of component energy within the shell increases with increasing scale separations. These results are consistent with results by Zhou, and Brasseur & Wei, and suggest that the anisotropizing influences of long range interactions should persist to higher Reynolds numbers. The residual effect of the forced distant group in this low-Reynolds number simulation is found to be forward cascading, on average

Report of the 1988 2-D Intercomparison Workshop, chapter 3

Several factors contribute to the errors encountered. With the exception of the line-by-line model, all of the models employ simplifying assumptions that place fundamental limits on their accuracy and range of validity. For example, all 2-D modeling groups use the diffusivity factor approximation. This approximation produces little error in tropospheric H2O and CO2 cooling rates, but can produce significant errors in CO2 and O3 cooling rates at the stratopause. All models suffer from fundamental uncertainties in shapes and strengths of spectral lines. Thermal flux algorithms being used in 2-D tracer tranport models produce cooling rates that differ by as much as 40 percent for the same input model atmosphere. Disagreements of this magnitude are important since the thermal cooling rates must be subtracted from the almost-equal solar heating rates to derive the net radiative heating rates and the 2-D model diabatic circulation. For much of the annual cycle, the net radiative heating rates are comparable in magnitude to the cooling rate differences described. Many of the models underestimate the cooling rates in the middle and lower stratosphere. The consequences of these errors for the net heating rates and the diabatic circulation will depend on their meridional structure, which was not tested here. Other models underestimate the cooling near 1 mbar. Suchs errors pose potential problems for future interactive ozone assessment studies, since they could produce artificially-high temperatures and increased O3 destruction at these levels. These concerns suggest that a great deal of work is needed to improve the performance of thermal cooling rate algorithms used in the 2-D tracer transport models

Effect of sulfate aerosol on tropospheric NOx and ozone budgets: Model simulations and TOPSE evidence

The distributions of NOx and O3 are analyzed during TOPSE (Tropospheric Ozone Production about the Spring Equinox). In this study these data are compared with the calculations of a global chemical/transport model (Model for OZone And Related chemical Tracers (MOZART)). Specifically, the effect that hydrolysis of N2O5 on sulfate aerosols has on tropospheric NOx and O3 budgets is studied. The results show that without this heterogeneous reaction, the model significantly overestimates NOx concentrations at high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) in winter and spring in comparison to the observations during TOPSE; with this reaction, modeled NOx concentrations are close to the measured values. This comparison provides evidence that the hydrolysis of N2O5 on sulfate aerosol plays an important role in controlling the tropospheric NOx and O3 budgets. The calculated reduction of NOx attributed to this reaction is 80 to 90% in winter at high latitudes over North America. Because of the reduction of NOx, O3 concentrations are also decreased. The maximum O3reduction occurs in spring although the maximum NOx reduction occurs in winter when photochemical O3 production is relatively low. The uncertainties related to uptake coefficient and aerosol loading in the model is analyzed. The analysis indicates that the changes in NOxdue to these uncertainties are much smaller than the impact of hydrolysis of N2O5 on sulfate aerosol. The effect that hydrolysis of N2O5 on global NOx and O3 budgets are also assessed by the model. The results suggest that in the Northern Hemisphere, the average NOx budget decreases 50% due to this reaction in winter and 5% in summer. The average O3 budget is reduced by 8% in winter and 6% in summer. In the Southern Hemisphere (SH), the sulfate aerosol loading is significantly smaller than in the Northern Hemisphere. As a result, sulfate aerosol has little impact on NOx and O3 budgets of the Southern Hemisphere

Estimating the spatial position of marine mammals based on digital camera recordings

Estimating the spatial position of organisms is essential to quantify interactions between the organism and the characteristics of its surroundings, for example,predator–prey interactions, habitat selection, and social associations. Because marine mammals spend most of their time under water and may appear at the surface only briefly, determining their exact geographic location can be challenging.Here, we developed a photogrammetric method to accurately estimatethe spatial position of marine mammals or birds at the sea surface. Digital recordings containing landscape features with known geographic coordinates can be used to estimate the distance and bearing of each sighting relative to the observation point. The method can correct for frame rotation, estimates pixel size based on the reference points, and can be applied to scenarios with and without a visible horizon. A set of R functions was written to process the images and obtain accurate geographic coordinates for each sighting. The method is applied to estimate the spatiotemporal fine-scale distribution of harbourporpoises in a tidal inlet. Video recordings of harbour porpoises were made from land, using a standard digital single-lens reflex (DSLR) camera, positioned at a height of 9.59 m above mean sea level. Porpoises were detected up to a distance of ~3136 m (mean 596 m), with a mean location error of 12 m. The method presented here allows for multiple detections of different individuals within a single video frame and for tracking movements of individuals based on repeated sightings. In comparison with traditional methods, this method only requires a digital camera to provide accurate location estimates. It especially has great potential in regions with ample data on local (a)biotic conditions, to help resolve functional mechanisms underlying habitat selection and other behaviors in marine mammals in coastal areas

Radiative forcing in the 21st century due to ozone changes in the troposphere and the lower stratosphere

Radiative forcing due to changes in ozone is expected for the 21st century. An assessment on changes in the tropospheric oxidative state through a model intercomparison ("OxComp'') was conducted for the IPCC Third Assessment Report (IPCC-TAR). OxComp estimated tropospheric changes in ozone and other oxidants during the 21st century based on the "SRES'' A2p emission scenario. In this study we analyze the results of 11 chemical transport models (CTMs) that participated in OxComp and use them as input for detailed radiative forcing calculations. We also address future ozone recovery in the lower stratosphere and its impact on radiative forcing by applying two models that calculate both tropospheric and stratospheric changes. The results of OxComp suggest an increase in global-mean tropospheric ozone between 11.4 and 20.5 DU for the 21st century, representing the model uncertainty range for the A2p scenario. As the A2p scenario constitutes the worst case proposed in IPCC-TAR we consider these results as an upper estimate. The radiative transfer model yields a positive radiative forcing ranging from 0.40 to 0.78 W m(-2) on a global and annual average. The lower stratosphere contributes an additional 7.5-9.3 DU to the calculated increase in the ozone column, increasing radiative forcing by 0.15-0.17 W m(-2). The modeled radiative forcing depends on the height distribution and geographical pattern of predicted ozone changes and shows a distinct seasonal variation. Despite the large variations between the 11 participating models, the calculated range for normalized radiative forcing is within 25%, indicating the ability to scale radiative forcing to global-mean ozone column change

Advancing Marine Biogeochemical and Ecosystem Reanalyses and Forecasts as Tools for Monitoring and Managing Ecosystem Health

Ocean ecosystems are subject to a multitude of stressors, including changes in ocean physics and biogeochemistry, and direct anthropogenic influences. Implementation of protective and adaptive measures for ocean ecosystems requires a combination of ocean observations with analysis and prediction tools. These can guide assessments of the current state of ocean ecosystems, elucidate ongoing trends and shifts, and anticipate impacts of climate change and management policies. Analysis and prediction tools are defined here as ocean circulation models that are coupled to biogeochemical or ecological models. The range of potential applications for these systems is broad, ranging from reanalyses for the assessment of past and current states, and short-term and seasonal forecasts, to scenario simulations including climate change projections. The objectives of this article are to illustrate current capabilities with regard to the three types of applications, and to discuss the challenges and opportunities. Representative examples of global and regional systems are described with particular emphasis on those in operational or pre-operational use. With regard to the benefits and challenges, similar considerations apply to biogeochemical and ecological prediction systems as do to physical systems. However, at present there are at least two major differences: (1) biogeochemical observation streams are much sparser than physical streams presenting a significant hinderance, and (2) biogeochemical and ecological models are largely unconstrained because of insufficient observations. Expansion of biogeochemical and ecological observation systems will allow for significant advances in the development and application of analysis and prediction tools for ocean biogeochemistry and ecosystems, with multiple societal benefits