Federal Reserve Information During the Great Moderation

Using data from the period 1970-1991, Romer and Romer (2000) showed that Federal Reserve forecasts of inflation and output were superior to those provided by commercial forecasters. In this paper, we show that this superior forecasting performance deteriorated after 1991. Over the decade 1992-2001, the superior forecast accuracy of the Fed held only over a very short time horizon and was limited to its forecasts of inflation. In addition, the performance of both the Fed and the commercial forecasters in predicting inflation and output, relative to that of "naive" benchmark models, dropped remarkably during this period.

Searching for Galactic White Dwarf Binaries in Mock LISA Data using an F-Statistic Template Bank

We describe an F-statistic search for continuous gravitational waves from galactic white-dwarf binaries in simulated LISA Data. Our search method employs a hierarchical template-grid based exploration of the parameter space. In the first stage, candidate sources are identified in searches using different simulated laser signal combinations (known as TDI variables). Since each source generates a primary maximum near its true "Doppler parameters" (intrinsic frequency and sky position) as well as numerous secondary maxima of the F-statistic in Doppler parameter space, a search for multiple sources needs to distinguish between true signals and secondary maxima associated with other, "louder" signals. Our method does this by applying a coincidence test to reject candidates which are not found at nearby parameter space positions in searches using each of the three TDI variables. For signals surviving the coincidence test, we perform a fully coherent search over a refined parameter grid to provide an accurate parameter estimation for the final candidates. Suitably tuned, the pipeline is able to extract 1989 true signals with only 5 false alarms. The use of the rigid adiabatic approximation allows recovery of signal parameters with errors comparable to statistical expectations, although there is still some systematic excess with respect to statistical errors expected from Gaussian noise. An experimental iterative pipeline with seven rounds of signal subtraction and re-analysis of the residuals allows us to increase the number of signals recovered to a total of 3419 with 29 false alarms.Comment: 29 pages, 11 figures; submitted to Classical and Quantum Gravit

A review of factors affecting the transfer of sexual and reproductive health training into practice in low and lower-middle income country humanitarian settings

© 2017 The Author(s). Background: A lack of access to sexual and reproductive health (SRH) care is the leading cause of morbidity and mortality among displaced women and girls of reproductive age. Efforts to address this public health emergency in humanitarian settings have included the widespread delivery of training programmes to address gaps in health worker capacity for SRH. There remains a lack of data on the factors which may affect the ability of health workers to apply SRH knowledge and skills gained through training programmes in humanitarian contexts. Methods: We searched four electronic databases and ten key organizations' websites to locate literature on SRH training for humanitarian settings in low and lower-middle income countries. Papers were examined using content analysis to identify factors which contribute to health workers' capacity to transfer SRH knowledge, skills and attitudes learned in training into practice in humanitarian settings. Results: Seven studies were included in this review. Six research papers focused on the response stage of humanitarian crises and five papers featured the disaster context of conflict. A range of SRH components were addressed including maternal, newborn health and sexual violence. The review identified factors, including appropriate resourcing, organisational support and confidence in health care workers that were found to facilitate the transfer of learning. The findings suggest the presence of factors that moderate the transfer of training at the individual, training, organisational, socio-cultural, political and health system levels. Conclusion: Supportive strategies are necessary to best assist trainees to apply newly acquired knowledge and skills in their work settings. These interventions must address factors that moderate the success of learning transfer. Findings from this review suggest that these are related to the individual trainee, the training program itself and the workplace as well as the broader environmental context. Organisations which provide SRH training for humanitarian emergencies should work to identify the system of moderating factors that affect training transfer in their setting and employ evidence-based strategies to ameliorate these

A survey of Chronic Pneumonia and Polyarthritis Syndrome (CPPS)- associated Mycoplasma bovis in western Canadian feedlots

Mycoplasma bovis is generally considered the causative pathogen associated with Chronic Pneumonia and Polyarthritis Syndrome (CPPS) in feedlot cattle. However, M. bovis virulence may vary between strains as it is also isolated from asympytomatic cattle. The following study aims to determine the prevalence of M. bovis in the respiratory tract of western Canadian cattle using two sampling methods and at two time points following feedlot entry. Three study groups were sampled. In the first group nasal swabs (NS) and bronchoalveolar lavages (BAL) were taken from 36 clincally healthy cattle at the University of Saskatchewan feedlot at both 14 and 90 days on feed (DOF). In a second experiment, NS were taken from 56 animals upon arrival at a commercial feedlot and one week to three months later upon treatment for respiratory disease. Lung and joint tissue swabs were collected at necropsy from a third group of 19 animals with CPPS clinical pathology originating in 10 different western Canadian feedlots. All samples were selectively cultured for Mycoplasma spp. DNA was extracted from isolated putative Mycoplasma colonies and amplified with universal 16S rRNA gene primers for identification. Amplified Fragment Length Polymorphism (AFLP) was used to genetically differentiate M. bovis positive isolates. More M. bovis was isolated from NS than BAL and M. bovis prevalence increased with DOF in the feedlot in both the University of Saskatchewan and commercial feedlot trials. Three genetically distinct clusters (A, B, and C) were isolated from the necropsy group. Two of these clusters were primarily associated with isolates collected from feedlot cattle and one strain was exclusively found in CPPS-associated mortalities. No significance difference in the prevalence of M. bovis strains was observed between different days on feed or sampling methods. It was concluded that either the difference in disease state is a host dependent outcome, due to a multi-factorial disease complex, or the AFLP assay was not sensitive enough to differentiate strains based on virulence

Meiotic sex chromosome cohesion and autosomal synapsis are supported by Esco2.

In mitotic cells, establishment of sister chromatid cohesion requires acetylation of the cohesin subunit SMC3 (acSMC3) by ESCO1 and/or ESCO2. Meiotic cohesin plays additional but poorly understood roles in the formation of chromosome axial elements (AEs) and synaptonemal complexes. Here, we show that levels of ESCO2, acSMC3, and the pro-cohesion factor sororin increase on meiotic chromosomes as homologs synapse. These proteins are less abundant on the largely unsynapsed sex chromosomes, whose sister chromatid cohesion appears weaker throughout the meiotic prophase. Using three distinct conditional Esco2 knockout mouse strains, we demonstrate that ESCO2 is essential for male gametogenesis. Partial depletion of ESCO2 in prophase I spermatocytes delays chromosome synapsis and further weakens cohesion along sex chromosomes, which show extensive separation of AEs into single chromatids. Unsynapsed regions of autosomes are associated with the sex chromatin and also display split AEs. This study provides the first evidence for a specific role of ESCO2 in mammalian meiosis, identifies a particular ESCO2 dependence of sex chromosome cohesion and suggests support of autosomal synapsis by acSMC3-stabilized cohesion

Developing a method for obtaining pupil insight for Building in Use reviews

This report details exploratory research undertaken by Newcastle University from November 2022 to May 2023. The aim of this exploratory project was to develop, trial and evaluate approaches to providing indications of how outdoor space is being perceived, used and valued by students in four schools – to ascertain which approach (or approaches) may be best suited for use as part of Building in Use (BiU) reviews.The report details the three digital methods tested, as well as the enablers and barriers encountered while using them.The digital tools developed can be used individually to obtain limited data, but a combination of several methods is most and can be combined with information from the BiU site visit and staff survey in providing an overall BiU assessment. However, there are barriers to this including financial outlay, support from schools, and the time and effort required to create the data collection tools, even with the templates and prototypes that we detail in the report.We recommend initial discussions between the BiU technical adviser (TA) and school about tools, so that these can be chosen to fit with school procedures, especially relating to online access, and also fulfil particular needs of a specific BiU review. This would form part of a developed relationship between TA and school, beyond the existing one of schools accommodating data collection using pre-specified methods, which would also include feedback from the TA to the school

A casino in my pocket: Gratifications associated with obsessive and harmonious passion for mobile gambling

Mobile gambling differs from land-based and traditional forms of gambling in that the opportunity to place bets and engage with casinos is constantly present and easily accessible. Instead of going to a physical bookmaker or casino, mobile gambling is done quickly and swiftly, anytime, anywhere, with a few taps on a mobile device. Previous studies reveal mobile gambling has managed to reach new audiences especially amongst younger people. Gambling harms can have severe adverse effects on individuals, families and society. However, for a subgroup of highly involved individuals, gambling can be considered a harmonious passion that permits frequent gambling without elevating individual’s risks of experience problem gambling manifestations. Combining the Uses and Gratifications (U&G) and Dualistic Model of Passion (DMP) frameworks, the present study aims to determine if and how the different gratifications sought from mobile gambling are susceptible to explaining non-problematic versus problematic patterns in highly involved gamblers. Data were collected over two waves from a global sample of mobile gamblers (N = 327). Results emphasize that the motivational underpinnings of mobile gambling (as measured by the U&G) differ in obsessive versus harmonious passion. Obsessive passion is associated with poor mood and problematic gambling. In contrast, harmonious passion for mobile gambling is associated with positive mood but is unrelated to problematic gambling. Based on these findings, and given that problematic gambling is an internationally relevant public health issue (the prevalence of problem gambling is estimated to range from 0.1% to 5.8% in different countries), we suggest interventions focusing on specific uses and gratifications associated with an obsessive passion for mobile gambling may be effective in reducing problematic usage patterns

Combined Paramagnetic and Diamagnetic Response of YBCO

It has been predicted that the zero frequency density of states of YBCO in the superconducting phase can display interesting anisotropy effects when a magnetic field is applied parallel to the copper-oxide planes, due to the diamagnetic response of the quasi-particles. In this paper we incorporate paramagnetism into the theory and show that it lessens the anisotropy and can even eliminate it altogether. At the same time paramagnetism also changes the scaling with the square root of the magnetic field first deduced by Volovik leading to an experimentally testable prediction. We also map out the analytic structure of the zero frequency density of states as a function of the diamagnetic and paramagnetic energies. At certain critical magnetic field values we predict kinks as we vary the magnetic field. However these probably lie beyond currently accessible field strengths

Why do People Share Misinformation during the COVID-19 Pandemic?

The World Health Organization have emphasised that misinformation - spreading rapidly through social media - poses a serious threat to the COVID-19 response. Drawing from theories of health perception and cognitive load, we develop and test a research model hypothesizing why people share unverified COVID-19 information through social media. Our findings suggest a person's trust in online information and perceived information overload are strong predictors of unverified information sharing. Furthermore, these factors, along with a person's perceived COVID-19 severity and vulnerability influence cyberchondria. Females were significantly more likely to suffer from cyberchondria, however, males were more likely to share news without fact checking their source. Our findings suggest that to mitigate the spread of COVID-19 misinformation and cyberchondria, measures should be taken to enhance a healthy skepticism of health news while simultaneously guarding against information overload