Distilling the Outcomes of Personal Experiences: A Propensity-scored Analysis of Social Media

ABSTRACT Millions of people regularly report the details of their realworld experiences on social media. This provides an opportunity to observe the outcomes of common and critical situations. Identifying and quantifying these outcomes may provide better decision-support and goal-achievement for individuals, and help policy-makers and scientists better understand important societal phenomena. We address several open questions about using social media data for open-domain outcome identification: Are the words people are more likely to use after some experience relevant to this experience? How well do these words cover the breadth of outcomes likely to occur for an experience? What kinds of outcomes are discovered? Studying 3-months of Twitter data capturing people who experienced 39 distinct situations across a variety of domains, we find that these outcomes are generally found to be relevant (55-100% on average) and that causally related concepts are more likely to be discovered than conceptual or semantically related concepts

Population-scale dietary interests during the COVID-19 pandemic.

The SARS-CoV-2 virus has altered people's lives around the world. Here we document population-wide shifts in dietary interests in 18 countries in 2020, as revealed through time series of Google search volumes. We find that during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic there was an overall surge in food interest, larger and longer-lasting than the surge during typical end-of-year holidays in Western countries. The shock of decreased mobility manifested as a drastic increase in interest in consuming food at home and a corresponding decrease in consuming food outside of home. The largest (up to threefold) increases occurred for calorie-dense carbohydrate-based foods such as pastries, bakery products, bread, and pies. The observed shifts in dietary interests have the potential to globally affect food consumption and health outcomes. These findings can inform governmental and organizational decisions regarding measures to mitigate the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on diet and nutrition

Sensitivity analysis for causality in observational studies for regulatory science

Recognizing the importance of real-world data (RWD) for regulatory purposes, the United States (US) Congress passed the 21st Century Cures Act1 mandating the development of Food and Drug Administration (FDA) guidance on regulatory use of real-world evidence. The Forum on the Integration of Observational and Randomized Data (FIORD) conducted a meeting bringing together various stakeholder groups to build consensus around best practices for the use of RWD to support regulatory science. Our companion paper describes in detail the context and discussion carried out in the meeting, which includes a recommendation to use a causal roadmap for complete pre-specification of study designs using RWD. This article discusses one step of the roadmap: the specification of a procedure for sensitivity analysis, defined as a procedure for testing the robustness of substantive conclusions to violations of assumptions made in the causal roadmap. We include a worked-out example of a sensitivity analysis from a RWD study on the effectiveness of Nifurtimox in treating Chagas disease, as well as an overview of various methods available for sensitivity analysis in causal inference, emphasizing practical considerations on their use for regulatory purposes

OMG, I Have to Tweet that! A Study of Factors that Influence Tweet Rates

Many studies have shown that social data such as tweets are a rich source of information about the real-world including, for example, insights into health trends. A key limitation when analyzing Twitter data, however, is that it depends on people self-reporting their own behaviors and observations. In this paper, we present a large-scale quantitative analysis of some of the factors that influence self-reporting bias. In our study, we compare a year of tweets about weather events to ground-truth knowledge about actual weather occurrences. For each weather event we calculate how extreme, how expected, and how big a change the event represents. We calculate the extent to which these factors can explain the daily variations in tweet rates about weather events. We find that we can build global models that take into account basic weather information, together with extremeness, expectation and change calculations to account for over 40% of the variability in tweet rates. We build location-specific (i.e., a model per each metropolitan area) models that account for an average of 70% of the variability in tweet rates