33 research outputs found

    Selecting candidate predictor variables for the modelling of post-discharge mortality from sepsis: a protocol development project

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    Background: Post-discharge mortality is a frequent but poorly recognized contributor to child mortality in resource limited countries. The identification of children at high risk for post-discharge mortality is a critically important first step in addressing this problem.Objectives: The objective of this project was to determine the variables most likely to be associated with post-discharge mortality which are to be included in a prediction modelling study.Methods: A two-round modified Delphi process was completed for the review of a priori selected variables and selection of new variables. Variables were evaluated on relevance according to (1) prediction (2) availability (3) cost and (4) time required for measurement. Participants included experts in a variety of relevant fields.Results: During the first round of the modified Delphi process, 23 experts evaluated 17 variables. Forty further variables were suggested and were reviewed during the second round by 12 experts. During the second round 16 additional variables were evaluated. Thirty unique variables were compiled for use in the prediction modelling study.Conclusion: A systematic approach was utilized to generate an optimal list of candidate predictor variables for the incorporation into a study on prediction of pediatric post-discharge mortality in a resource poor setting.Keywords: Candidate predictor variables, pediatrics, prediction, post-discharge mortality, sepsi

    Selecting candidate predictor variables for the modelling of post-discharge mortality from sepsis: a protocol development project.

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    Background: Post-discharge mortality is a frequent but poorly recognized contributor to child mortality in resource limited countries. The identification of children at high risk for post-discharge mortality is a critically important first step in addressing this problem. Objectives: The objective of this project was to determine the variables most likely to be associated with post-discharge mortality which are to be included in a prediction modelling study. Methods: A two-round modified Delphi process was completed for the review of a priori selected variables and selection of new variables. Variables were evaluated on relevance according to (1) prediction (2) availability (3) cost and (4) time required for measurement. Participants included experts in a variety of relevant fields. Results: During the first round of the modified Delphi process, 23 experts evaluated 17 variables. Forty further variables were suggested and were reviewed during the second round by 12 experts. During the second round 16 additional variables were evaluated. Thirty unique variables were compiled for use in the prediction modelling study. Conclusion: A systematic approach was utilized to generate an optimal list of candidate predictor variables for the incorporation into a study on prediction of pediatric post-discharge mortality in a resource poor setting

    Pediatric out-of-hospital deaths following hospital discharge: a mixed-methods study.

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    Background: Out-of-hospital death among children living in resource poor settings occurs frequently. Little is known about the location and circumstances of child death following a hospital discharge. Objectives: This study aimed to understand the context surrounding out-of-hospital deaths and the barriers to accessing timely care for Ugandan children recently discharged from the hospital. Methods: This was a mixed-methods sub-study within a larger cohort study of post-discharge mortality conducted in the Southwestern region of Uganda. Children admitted with an infectious illness were eligible for enrollment in the cohort study, and then followed for six months after discharge. Caregivers of children who died outside of the hospital during the six month post-discharge period were eligible to participate in this sub-study. Qualitative interviews and univariate logistic regression were conducted to determine predictors of out-of-hospital deaths. Results: Of 1,242 children discharged, 61 died during the six month post-discharge period, with most (n=40, 66%) dying outside of a hospital. Incremental increases in maternal education were associated with lower odds of out-of-hospital death compared to hospital death (OR: 0.38, 95% CI: 0.19 \u2013 0.81). The qualitative analysis identified health seeking behaviors and common barriers within the post-discharge period which delayed care seeking prior to death. For recently discharged children, caregivers often expressed hesitancy to seek care following a recent episode of hospitalization. Conclusion: Mortality following discharge often occurs outside of a hospital context. In addition to resource limitations, the health knowledge and perceptions of caregivers can be influential to timely access to care. Interventions to decrease child mortality must consider barriers to health seeking among children following hospital discharge

    Malaria misdiagnosis in Uganda – implications for policy change

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    BACKGROUND: In Uganda, like in many other countries traditionally viewed as harbouring very high malaria transmission, the norm has been to recommend that febrile episodes are diagnosed as malaria. In this study, the policy implications of such recommendations are revisited. METHODS: A cross-sectional survey was undertaken at outpatient departments of all health facilities in four Ugandan districts. The routine diagnostic practices were assessed for all patients during exit interviews and a research slide was obtained for later reading. Primary outcome measures were the accuracy of national recommendations and routine malaria diagnosis in comparison with the study definition of malaria (any parasitaemia on expert slide examination in patient with fever) stratified by age and intensity of malaria transmission. Secondary outcome measures were the use, interpretation and accuracy of routine malaria microscopy. RESULTS: 1,763 consultations undertaken by 233 health workers at 188 facilities were evaluated. The prevalence of malaria was 24.2% and ranged between 13.9% in patients >or=5 years in medium-to-high transmission areas to 50.5% for children <5 years in very high transmission areas. Overall, the sensitivity and negative predictive value (NPV) of routine malaria diagnosis were high (89.7% and 91.6% respectively) while the specificity and positive predictive value (PPV) were low (35.6% and 30.8% respectively). However, malaria was under-diagnosed in 39.9% of children less than five years of age in the very high transmission area. At 48 facilities with functional microscopy, the use of malaria slide examination was low (34.5%) without significant differences between age groups, or between patients for whom microscopy is recommended or not. 96.2% of patients with a routine positive slide result were treated for malaria but also 47.6% with a negative result. CONCLUSION: Current recommendations and associated clinical practices result in massive malaria over-diagnosis across all age groups and transmission areas in Uganda. Yet, under-diagnosis is also common in children <5 years. The potential benefits of malaria microscopy are not realized. To address malaria misdiagnosis, Uganda's policy shift from presumptive to parasitological diagnosis should encompass introduction of malaria rapid diagnostic tests and substantial strengthening of malaria microscopy

    Multiple Measures Reveal Antiretroviral Adherence Successes and Challenges in HIV-Infected Ugandan Children

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    Background: Adherence to HIV antiretroviral therapy (ART) among children in developing settings is poorly understood. Methodology/Principal Findings: To understand the level, distribution, and correlates of ART adherence behavior, we prospectively determined monthly ART adherence through multiple measures and six-monthly HIV RNA levels among 121 Ugandan children aged 2–10 years for one year. Median adherence levels were 100% by three-day recall, 97.4% by 30-day visual analog scale, 97.3% by unannounced pill count/liquid formulation weights, and 96.3% by medication event monitors (MEMS). Interruptions in MEMS adherence of \geq48 hours were seen in 57.0% of children; 36.3% had detectable HIV RNA at one year. Only MEMS correlated significantly with HIV RNA levels (r = −0.25, p = 0.04). Multivariable regression found the following to be associated with <90% MEMS adherence: hospitalization of child (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] 3.0, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.6–5.5; p = 0.001), liquid formulation use (AOR 1.4, 95%CI 1.0–2.0; p = 0.04), and caregiver’s alcohol use (AOR 3.1, 95%CI 1.8–5.2; p<0.0001). Child’s use of co-trimoxazole (AOR 0.5, 95%CI 0.4–0.9; p = 0.009), caregiver’s use of ART (AOR 0.6, 95%CI 0.4–0.9; p = 0.03), possible caregiver depression (AOR 0.6, 95%CI 0.4–0.8; p = 0.001), and caregiver feeling ashamed of child’s HIV status (AOR 0.5, 95%CI 0.3–0.6; p<0.0001) were protective against <90% MEMS adherence. Change in drug manufacturer (AOR 4.1, 95%CI 1.5–11.5; p = 0.009) and caregiver’s alcohol use (AOR 5.5, 95%CI 2.8–10.7; p<0.0001) were associated with \geq48-hour interruptions by MEMS, while second-line ART (AOR 0.3, 95%CI 0.1–0.99; p = 0.049) and increasing assets (AOR 0.7, 95%CI 0.6–0.9; p = 0.0007) were protective against these interruptions. Conclusions/Significance: Adherence success depends on a well-established medication taking routine, including caregiver support and adequate education on medication changes. Caregiver-reported depression and shame may reflect fear of poor outcomes, functioning as motivation for the child to adhere. Further research is needed to better understand and build on these key influential factors for adherence intervention development

    Afri-Can Forum 2

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    Tuberculosis in children at Mbarara University Teaching Hospital, Uganda: diagnosis and outcome of treatment

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    Background: The diagnosis of tuberculosis in children is difficult particularly in HIV infected children. The poor outcome following antituberculosis treatment usually reported in HIV infected children might be due, in part, to other HIV-related chronic diseases wrongly diagnosed as TB. Objective: The study examines the impact of HIV infection on the clinical features and diagnosis of children presenting with suspected tuberculosis in Mbarara University Teaching Hospital. It also examines the effect of various factors on the outcome of anti-TB treatment. Methods: Children presenting with suspected TB were prospectively enrolled. Clinical data were recorded and investigations included Mantoux test, chest X-ray, HIV test and Z-N staining of various specimens for AAFBs where available. Patients were treated with standard, short-course anti-TB therapy, and followed-up for six months. They were then classified as “good outcome” if they improved and “poor outcome” if they deteriorated or died whilst on treatment. Results: A total of 128 children were enrolled over an 18-month period. Four patients (3.1%) had a diagnosis of confirmed TB, 82 (64.1%) with “probable TB” and 42 (32.8%) with “suspected TB”. Of 88 patients tested 43 (48.9%) were HIV positive. HIV positive patients had a higher frequency of failure to thrive, digital clubbing, enlarged lymph nodes and hepatomegaly; and a lower frequency of positive Mantoux tests. HIV positive patients were less likely to be classified as “ confirmed or probable TB” (c2 = 5.02, p = 0.025). Fifty six patients had a good outcome, 12 had a poor outcome and 60 defaulted before completing six months of treatment. HIV positive children were more likely to have a poor outcome (relative risk = 9.58, 95% CI 1.32 – 69.46). A diagnosis of “ confirmed or probable TB” was associated with a good outcome (relative risk for poor outcome = 0.14, 95% CI 0.05 – 0.36). Conclusion: HIV positive children with suspected TB frequently have signs that suggest the presence of other diseases such as Lymphocystic Interstitial Pneumonitis (LIP) and chronic bronchiectasis; and are less likely to have a diagnosis of “probable or confirmed TB” after investigations. Patients with an uncertain diagnosis of TB are less likely to improve on anti-TB therapy. Keywords: Childhood tuberculosis; HIV infection; diagnosis; outcome of treatment, Uganda. African Health Sciences 2002: 2(3): 82-8
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