Predicting the Efficacy of Future Training Programs Using Past Experiences

We investigate the problem of predicting the average effect of a new training program using experiences with previous implementations. There are two principal complications in doing so. First, the population in which the new program will be implemented may differ from the population in which the old program was implemented. Second, the two programs may differ in the mix of their components. With sufficient detail on characteristics of the two populations and sufficient overlap in their distributions, one may be able to adjust for differences due to the first complication. Dealing with the second difficulty requires data on the exact treatments the individuals received. However even in the presence of differences in the mix of components across training programs comparisons of controls in both populations who were excluded from participating in any of the programs should not be affected. To investigate the empirical importance of these issues, we compare four job training pro-grams implemented in the mid-eighties in different parts of the U.S. We find that adjusting for pre-training earnings and individual characteristics removes most of the differences between control units, but that even after such adjustments, post-training earnings for trainees are not comparable. We surmise that differences in treatment components across training programs are the likely cause, and that more details on the specific services provided by these programs are necessary to predict the effect of future programs. We also conclude that effect heterogeneity, it is essential, even in experimental evaluations of training programs record pre-training earnings and individual characteristics in order to render the extrapolation of the results to different locations more credible.

The Lost Library of Anne Conway

The philosopher Anne Conway (1631-1679) owned a large library, and her reading and book ownership shaped her intellectual life in distinctive ways. Until now, however, almost nothing has been known about the details of her reading or her book collection. Current scholarship assumes that her library, like that of her husband, the third Viscount Conway (c. 1623–1683), was lost or dispersed after her death. This article presents previously unrecognised evidence of Conway’s book ownership, and identifies, for the first time, the only books currently known to survive from her personal library. It traces their path to their current location in the Old Library of Jesus College, Cambridge, through the library of the soldier, book collector, and Cambridge Fellow Francis Sterling (c. 1652-1692). The article demonstrates that the newly identified books reveal previously unknown patterns of intellectual exchange amongst Conway’s family, and argues that they have significant implications for our understanding of her early intellectual development

IL-27 induces an IFN-like signature in murine macrophages which in turn modulate colonic epithelium

Mucosal delivery of IL-27 has been shown to have a therapeutic benefit in murine models of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). The IL-27 effect was associated with phosphorylated STAT1 (pSTAT1), a product of IL27 receptor signaling, in bowel tissue. To determine whether IL-27 acted directly on colonic epithelium, murine colonoids and primary intact colonic crypts were shown to be unresponsive to IL-27 in vitro and to lack detectable IL-27 receptors. On the other hand, macrophages, which are present in inflamed colon tissue, were responsive to IL-27 in vitro. IL-27 induced pSTAT1 in macrophages, the transcriptome indicated an IFN-like signature, and supernatants induced pSTAT1 in colonoids. IL-27 induced anti-viral activity in macrophages and MHC Class II induction. We conclude that the effects of mucosal delivery of IL-27 in murine IBD are in part based on the known effects of IL27 inducing immunosuppression of T cells mediated by IL-10. We also conclude that IL-27 has potent effects on macrophages in inflamed colon tissue, generating mediators that in turn act on colonic epithelium

From KIDSCREEN-10 to CHU9D: creating a unique mapping algorithm for application in economic evaluation

Background: The KIDSCREEN-10 index and the Child Health Utility 9D (CHU9D) are two recently developed generic instruments for the measurement of health-related quality of life in children and adolescents. Whilst the CHU9D is a preference based instrument developed specifically for application in cost-utility analyses, the KIDSCREEN-10 is not currently suitable for application in this context. This paper provides an algorithm for mapping the KIDSCREEN-10 index onto the CHU9D utility scores. Methods: A sample of 590 Australian adolescents (aged 11–17) completed both the KIDSCREEN-10 and the CHU9D. Several econometric models were estimated, including ordinary least squares estimator, censored least absolute deviations estimator, robust MM-estimator and generalised linear model, using a range of explanatory variables with KIDSCREEN-10 items scores as key predictors. The predictive performance of each model was judged using mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean squared error (RMSE). Results: The MM-estimator with stepwise-selected KIDSCREEN-10 items scores as explanatory variables had the best predictive accuracy using MAE, whilst the equivalent ordinary least squares model had the best predictive accuracy using RMSE. Conclusions: The preferred mapping algorithm (i.e. the MM-estimate with stepwise selected KIDSCREEN-10 item scores as the predictors) can be used to predict CHU9D utility from KIDSCREEN-10 index with a high degree of accuracy. The algorithm may be usefully applied within cost-utility analyses to generate cost per quality adjusted life year estimates where KIDSCREEN-10 data only are available

Intermediate Phenotypes Identify Divergent Pathways to Alzheimer's Disease

Background: Recent genetic studies have identified a growing number of loci with suggestive evidence of association with susceptibility to Alzheimer's disease (AD). However, little is known of the role of these candidate genes in influencing intermediate phenotypes associated with a diagnosis of AD, including cognitive decline or AD neuropathologic burden. Methods/Principal Findings: Thirty-two single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) previously implicated in AD susceptibility were genotyped in 414 subjects with both annual clinical evaluation and completed brain autopsies from the Religious Orders Study and the Rush Memory and Aging Project. Regression analyses evaluated the relation of SNP genotypes to continuous measures of AD neuropathology and cognitive function proximate to death. A SNP in the zinc finger protein 224 gene (ZNF224, rs3746319) was associated with both global AD neuropathology (p = 0.009) and global cognition (p = 0.002); whereas, a SNP at the phosphoenolpyruvate carboxykinase locus (PCK1, rs8192708) was selectively associated with global cognition (p = 3.57×10−4). The association of ZNF224 with cognitive impairment was mediated by neurofibrillary tangles, whereas PCK1 largely influenced cognition independent of AD pathology, as well as Lewy bodies and infarcts. Conclusions/Significance: The findings support the association of several loci with AD, and suggest how intermediate phenotypes can enhance analysis of susceptibility loci in this complex genetic disorder

Neuropathologic Correlates of Hippocampal Atrophy in the Elderly: A Clinical, Pathologic, Postmortem MRI Study

The volume of the hippocampus measured with structural magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is increasingly used as a biomarker for Alzheimer's disease (AD). However, the neuropathologic basis of structural MRI changes in the hippocampus in the elderly has not been directly assessed. Postmortem MRI of the aging human brain, combined with histopathology, could be an important tool to address this issue. Therefore, this study combined postmortem MRI and histopathology in 100 elderly subjects from the Rush Memory and Aging Project and the Religious Orders Study. First, to validate the information contained in postmortem MRI data, we tested the hypothesis that postmortem hippocampal volume is smaller in subjects with clinically diagnosed Alzheimer's disease compared to subjects with mild or no cognitive impairment, as observed in antemortem imaging studies. Subsequently, the relations of postmortem hippocampal volume to AD pathology, Lewy bodies, amyloid angiopathy, gross infarcts, microscopic infarcts, and hippocampal sclerosis were examined. It was demonstrated that hippocampal volume was smaller in persons with a clinical diagnosis of AD compared to those with no cognitive impairment (P = 2.6×10−7) or mild cognitive impairment (P = 9.6×10−7). Additionally, hippocampal volume was related to multiple cognitive abilities assessed proximate to death, with its strongest association with episodic memory. Among all pathologies investigated, the most significant factors related to lower hippocampal volume were shown to be AD pathology (P = 0.0018) and hippocampal sclerosis (P = 4.2×10−7). Shape analysis allowed for visualization of the hippocampal regions most associated with volume loss for each of these two pathologies. Overall, this investigation confirmed the relation of hippocampal volume measured postmortem to clinical diagnosis of AD and measures of cognition, and concluded that both AD pathology and hippocampal sclerosis affect hippocampal volume in old age, though the impacts of each pathology on the shape of the hippocampus may differ

SARS-CoV-2-specific immune responses and clinical outcomes after COVID-19 vaccination in patients with immune-suppressive disease

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) immune responses and infection outcomes were evaluated in 2,686 patients with varying immune-suppressive disease states after administration of two Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines. Overall, 255 of 2,204 (12%) patients failed to develop anti-spike antibodies, with an additional 600 of 2,204 (27%) patients generating low levels (<380 AU ml−1). Vaccine failure rates were highest in ANCA-associated vasculitis on rituximab (21/29, 72%), hemodialysis on immunosuppressive therapy (6/30, 20%) and solid organ transplant recipients (20/81, 25% and 141/458, 31%). SARS-CoV-2-specific T cell responses were detected in 513 of 580 (88%) patients, with lower T cell magnitude or proportion in hemodialysis, allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation and liver transplant recipients (versus healthy controls). Humoral responses against Omicron (BA.1) were reduced, although cross-reactive T cell responses were sustained in all participants for whom these data were available. BNT162b2 was associated with higher antibody but lower cellular responses compared to ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccination. We report 474 SARS-CoV-2 infection episodes, including 48 individuals with hospitalization or death from COVID-19. Decreased magnitude of both the serological and the T cell response was associated with severe COVID-19. Overall, we identified clinical phenotypes that may benefit from targeted COVID-19 therapeutic strategies

Breast cancer management pathways during the COVID-19 pandemic: outcomes from the UK ‘Alert Level 4’ phase of the B-MaP-C study

Abstract: Background: The B-MaP-C study aimed to determine alterations to breast cancer (BC) management during the peak transmission period of the UK COVID-19 pandemic and the potential impact of these treatment decisions. Methods: This was a national cohort study of patients with early BC undergoing multidisciplinary team (MDT)-guided treatment recommendations during the pandemic, designated ‘standard’ or ‘COVID-altered’, in the preoperative, operative and post-operative setting. Findings: Of 3776 patients (from 64 UK units) in the study, 2246 (59%) had ‘COVID-altered’ management. ‘Bridging’ endocrine therapy was used (n = 951) where theatre capacity was reduced. There was increasing access to COVID-19 low-risk theatres during the study period (59%). In line with national guidance, immediate breast reconstruction was avoided (n = 299). Where adjuvant chemotherapy was omitted (n = 81), the median benefit was only 3% (IQR 2–9%) using ‘NHS Predict’. There was the rapid adoption of new evidence-based hypofractionated radiotherapy (n = 781, from 46 units). Only 14 patients (1%) tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 during their treatment journey. Conclusions: The majority of ‘COVID-altered’ management decisions were largely in line with pre-COVID evidence-based guidelines, implying that breast cancer survival outcomes are unlikely to be negatively impacted by the pandemic. However, in this study, the potential impact of delays to BC presentation or diagnosis remains unknown

Vertical Contracts in the Video Rental Industry

A large body of theoretical work has explored the channels through which vertical contracts can induce efficiency improvements. However, it is also important to study vertical contracts empirically in order to gain insight into the relative size of different types of efficiency gains. In this paper, I empirically analyse a contractual innovation in the vertically separated video rental industry. Prior to 1998, video stores obtained inventory from movie distributors using simple linear-pricing contracts. In 1998, revenue-sharing contracts were widely adopted. I investigate the effect of the introduction of revenue-sharing contracts on firms' profits and consumer welfare. I analyse a new panel data set of home video retailers that includes information on individual retailers' contract and inventory choices, as well as rentals and contract terms for 246 movie titles and 6137 retailers in the U.S. during each week of 1998 and 1999 and the first half of 2000. A structural econometric model of firms' behaviour is developed that describes the nature of firms' contract choices. Estimates from this model indicate that both upstream and downstream profits increase by 10% under the revenue-sharing contract for popular titles. For less popular titles, the effects can be even larger. I also estimate that consumers benefit when revenue-sharing contracts are adopted. Copyright 2008 The Review of Economic Studies Limited.