Probation Officers’ judgements: A study using Personal Construct Theory

• Summary Social workers and probation officers are frequently called upon to make judgements about the likelihood of re-offending. However, whilst the use of risk assessment instruments is now commonplace, the cognitive processes through which these judgements are made are rarely explicit. • Findings This study used the repertory grid method to elicit the constructs of judgements about re-offending of 15 experienced probation officers. Primary factors in their judgements were related to: (1) responsibility and risk taking behaviour; (2) criminal history; (3) self-awareness; and (4) stability. Personality characteristics, substance misuse and family dysfunction were also important. The findings are discussed in relation to two theoretical frameworks for understanding decision making: heuristics and biases and image theory, which focuses on values. • Application It is suggested that the design and implementation of assessment tools should be undertaken in the light of the constructs used in making professional judgements which inform the relevant decision making. </jats:sec

Preliminary-test estimation of a mis-specified linear model with spherically symmetric disturbances

This thesis considers some finite sample properties of preliminary test (pre-test) estimators of the unknown parameters of a (possibly) mis-specified linear regression model. We investigate two types of misspecification which may or may not occur simultaneously. The first relates to the distribution of the regression disturbances, which is assumed to be normal, when in fact, the error distribution belongs to a broader family of spherically symmetric distributions. The second mis-specification is that the model's design matrix may exclude relevant regressors. We analyse some finite sample properties of three pre-test estimators. The first is an estimator of the prediction vector after a pre-test for exact linear restrictions on the location vector. Secondly, we consider an estimator of the error variance after the same pre-test. Finally, we analyse an estimator of the error variance after a pre-test for homogeneity of the variances in the two-sample linear regression model. In each case we extend the existing literature by generalising the model's error distribution and allowing for model mis-specification through the omission of regressors. To provide a setting for this research, we survey the relevant pretesting literature in Chapter Two. This discussion assumes that the errors are normally distributed. There is a body of research, however, which proposes that some economic data series may be generated by processes whose underlying distributions have thicker tails than that which would result from a normality assumption. We briefly examine this literature in Chapter Three. One alternative family of distributions, which has received considerable attention, is the spherically symmetric family of distributions. Well known members of this family include the normal and the multivariate Student-t distributions. So, we include in Chapter Three a rationale for investigating spherically symmetric regression disturbances as an alternative to the usual normality assumption. We also discuss several studies which consider the linear regression model under a spherically symmetric disturbance assumption. Having provided a setting and rationale for our research in Chapters Two and Three, Chapters Four, Five and Six present the finite sample properties of the aforementioned pre-test estimators. In each of these chapters we derive the exact bias and the exact risk functions (under quadratic loss) of the estimators under the mis-specified regression model. We also give the non-null distributions of the commonly used test-statistics for the investigated pre-tests, and we generalise many of the results reported in the existing literature. In particular, we derive the critical values of the test which result in a minimum of the bias and of the risk of the pre-test estimators of the error variance. To illustrate the results we assume multivariate Student-t regression disturbances, rather than the general spherically symmetric family, and numerically evaluate the derived expressions for various cases. Our results suggest, when estimating the prediction vector, that the mis-specification of the distribution of the regression disturbances has little impact on the qualitative properties of the predictor pre-test estimator, though there are quantitative effects. However, when estimating the error variance, after either a pre-test for linear restrictions or for homogeneity of the error variances, we find that mis-specifying the error distribution can have a substantial qualitative, and quantitative, impact on the bias and the risk functions of the estimators. Imposing the linear restrictions, even if they are valid, or always pooling the samples, even if the error variances are identical, may often be inappropriate strategies. The final chapter, Chapter Seven, contains some concluding remarks. In particular, we consider some possible future research topics

Deployment of an AWAC off the east coast of St Vincent, 2018-2019

The eastern Caribbean islands encompass some of the most vulnerable coastlines in terms of sea level rise and exposure to tropical cyclones (hurricanes), waves and storm surges. The climate in the Caribbean is already changing and sea level rise impacts are being observed. Governments in the Caribbean islands, many of which may be regarded as Small Island Developing States, recognise that climate change and sea level rise are serious threats to the sustainable development and economic growth of their countries and urgent actions are required to increase climate resilience and make informed decisions about how to adapt to future climate change (Caribbean Marine Climate Change Report Card, 2017; IPCC, 2014). Although the level of vulnerability will vary from island to island, it is expected that practically all SIDS will be adversely affected by sea level rise. Islands typically have a windward coast, which is exposed to coastal erosion by storm and swell waves from the Atlantic Ocean, but there are limited in situ data on wave conditions in the nearshore zone. In this report, we present results from deployment of a wave and current meter deployment over two 2-month periods off the east coast of the island of Saint Vincent (the main island of the state of Saint Vincent and Grenadines). The work presented here is a contribution to a wide range of ongoing activities under the Commonwealth Marine Economies (CME) Programme in the Caribbean, falling within the NOC-led project “Climate Change Impact Assessment: Ocean Modelling and Monitoring for the Caribbean CME states”, 2018-2020

Knowledge, beliefs and practices regarding prevention of bacterial meningitis in Burkina Faso, 5 years after MenAfriVac mass campaigns.

BACKGROUND: To adapt communications concerning vaccine prevention, we studied knowledge, beliefs and practices around meningitis risk and prevention in a young adult population in Burkina Faso in 2016, 5 years after the MenAfriVac® mass campaign and one year before the vaccine's inclusion in the infant immunization schedule. METHODS: In a representative sample of the population aged 15 to 33 years (N = 220) in Bobo-Dioulasso, Burkina Faso, study nurses administered a standardized paper questionnaire consisting of predominantly open questions, collecting information on meningitis risk factors and prevention, and on exposure to dry air and kitchen fire smoke. We identified themes and analyzed their frequency. We created a meningitis knowledge score (range 0 to 4) based on pre-defined best responses and analyzed the determinants of knowledge score levels ≥2 (basic score) and ≥3 (high score) using multivariate logistic regression. RESULTS: Biomedically supported facts and good practices were known by the majority of participants (eg vaccine prevention, 84.5%). Younger women aged 15-20 years had a higher frequency of low scores <2 (17.0%) compared to older women aged 21-33 years (6.3%) and men of both age groups (3.8%). Junior secondary School attendance explained the differences between the two groups of women, the gender gap for the older, but not the young women, and explained score differences among young women. Local understandings and practices for risk and prevention were commonly reported and used (risk from unripe mango consumption and prevention through nasal application of shea nut butter). DISCUSSION: This study shows a gender gap in knowledge of meningitis risk and prevention, largely due to education-level inequalities. Women below 21 years had particularly low levels of knowledge and may need interventions outside schools and perinatal care. Our study suggests a strong adherence to local understandings of and practices around meningitis risk and prevention, which should be taken into account by vaccination promotion

Support My Spine ASAP. A Rural Tele-health care model for patients being managed with a Thoracic Lumbar Sacral Orthotic (TLSO).

U ovom diplomskom radu definirana je i ispitana nova metoda kratkoročne prognoze valnih visina iz podataka brzine vjetra tzv. metoda ekvivalentnog trajanja. Metoda je bazirana na jednadžbama danim u EM 1110-2-1100 (Part II) Chapter II-2 “Meteorology and Wave Climate”. Projektiranje pomorskih građevina gotovo uvijek zahtijeva prognozu određenih parametara valova. To je prognoziranje često vrlo komplicirano te zahtijeva suradnju projektanta i inženjera specijaliziranog za izradu kompleksnih numeričkih modela. U nekim situacijama poželjno je procijeniti značajne valne visine koje se mogu pojaviti na nekom prostoru na jednostavan, jeftin i brz način. U svrhu istraživanja u ovome radu analizirane su valne situacije na dvije lokacije, u Riječkom zaljevu te kod mjesta Rukavac na otoku Visu. Uspoređujući izmjerene valne visine u trenutku pojave maksimalne brzine i valne visine dobivene proračunom, utvrđeno je da metoda ekvivalentnog trajanja bazirana na jednadžbama danim u EM 1110-2-1100 (Part II) Chapter II-2 “Meteorology and Wave Climate” značajno podcjenjuje vrijednosti značajnih valnih visina. U ovom radu ispitano je 17 valnih situacija te su na njima testirane dvije modifikacije bazne metode ekvivalentnog trajanja. Rezultati dviju modifikacije su vrijednosti značajnih valnih visina i perioda značajno bliže izmjerenim vrijednostima, odnosno vrijednostima dobivenim iz globalnog modela.A research study has been conducted to estimate significant wave heights and wave periods for wind-generated waves using the new equivalent duration method based on the equations from EM 1110-2-1100 (Part II) Chapter II-2 “Meteorology and Wave Climate”. Designing maritime structures almost always requires wave hindcasting and forecasting. In some cases it is desirable to estimate significant wave heights and periods in a simple, inexpensive and quick way without complex, numerical models or expensive software. For the purpose of this research study, wind-wave situations on two locations have been analysed. The first one in the Rijeka bay area and the second one close to Rukavac on the island of Vis. Comparing the measured and calculated significant wave heights in the moment of maximum wind speed, it has been noticed that the equivalent duration method based on the equations from EM 1110-21100 (Part II) Chapter II-2 “Meteorology and Wave Climate” underestimates the values of calculated wave heights. In this research study two new modifications of the basic method, on 17 wind-wave situations, have been tested. The results show that the values of calculated significant wave heights and wave periods in the moment of maximum wind speed are closer to the measured values

Support My Spine ASAP. A Rural Tele-health care model for patients being managed with a Thoracic Lumbar Sacral Orthotic (TLSO).

Question: Does a Telehealth model of care facilitating treatment in rural hospitals for patients requiring a TLSO eliminate the need for transfer to a tertiary referral hospital? Design: Quantitative pre and post intervention design. Participants: Physiotherapists, nursing and medical staff at rural hospital pilot sites. Intervention: Pre and post intervention data collection provided patient demographics, and length of stay data around model of care implementation. Pre intervention staff surveys identified knowledge gaps informing educational packages which were provided with a mobile Telehealth link. Outcome measures: Primary: Number of patients managed under the new model of care. Secondary: Length of stay, travel distance eliminated and complications. Results: 30 patients fitted with TLSO’s and managed under this model of care to date. Length of stay has reduced from 9.14 days pre intervention to 3.8 days post intervention. Approximate savings of $6840 per patient have been identified, with over 6000kms of patient travel eliminated. No complications have occurred. Rural Physiotherapists have been successfully up skilled in managing patients requiring TLSO fitting. Conclusion: This intervention successfully created a model of care to facilitate local management of patients requiring TLSO fitting with Telehealth support from a tertiary referral hospital. Considerable savings have occurred from this model of care for patients and the health district. This model is currently being implemented district wide. Key Practice Points: Telehealth model of care can be successfully implemented to TLSO management Multidisciplinary team role is critical role in redesigning models of care Telehealth increase the efficiency of healthcare resource