Credit, Financial Liberalization and Manufacturing Investment in Colombia

This paper evaluates the degree to which Colombian firms face credit restrictions that alter their investment decisions. It analyzes whether the evolution of the financial sector during the 1990s, characterized by an intense financial liberalization, an increase in size and a deepening of the activity, reduced the credit restrictions faced by firms and stimulated investment. The paper also explores whether, on the contrary, financial restrictions intensified during the recent 1998-2000 crisis. The paper provides empirical evidence suggesting that Colombian firms are indeed restricted by external resources and are compelled to resort to internal resources. The paper demonstrates that financial liberalization and the greater credit availability reduced such restrictions, and that the financial crisis had a strong and negative effect on investment and its financing. It compares the behavior of different groups of firms: (i) firms belonging to conglomerates vs. non-conglomerates, and (ii) firms with direct foreign investment vs. domestic firms. It shows that both groups face fewer financial restrictions and that they benefited less from financial liberalization. Finally, the paper evaluates the effects of indebtedness; the results suggest firms acquire debt before investing and/or that the acquired debt in the past serves as a sign of good credit history for the acquisition of new resources.

El impacto de las intervenciones cambiarias en Colombia. Un estudio de eventos

Hasta la fecha, hay gran controversia sobre el modelo de tipo de cambio que se debe utilizar o el mecanismo de transmisión que debe ser considerado para medir los efectos de la política monetaria. Dado que la mayoría de la literatura se basa en modelos estructurales como estrategia de identificación, la validez de los resultados depende, en gran medida, de la validez de sus supuestos. Este artículo compara los efectos de diferentes tipos de intervenciones para el caso colombiano durante el período 2000-2012, sin imponer supuestos paramétricos restrictivos y sin la necesidad de adoptar un modelo estructural. Nuestros resultados muestran que todos los tipos de intervención cambiaria (opciones de acumulación de reservas, opciones de volatilidad e intervenciones discrecionales) han tenido éxito según el criterio de suavización en el estudio de eventos. En particular, las opciones de volatilidad parecen haber tenido el mayor efecto. Los resultados son robustos cuando se utilizan ventanas de diferentes tamaños y diferentes escenarios.To date, there is still great controversy as to which exchange rate model should be used or which monetary channel should be considered, when measuring the effects of monetary policy. Since most of the literature relies on structural models to address identification problems, the validity of results largely turn on how accurate these assumptions are in describing the full extent of the economy. In this paper we compare the effects of different types of central bank intervention for the Colombian case during 2000-2012, without imposing restrictive parametric assumptions or without the need to adopt a structural model. Using an event study approach, we find that all types of interventions (international reserve accumulation options, volatility options and discretionary) have been successful according to the smoothing criterion. In particular, volatility options had the strongest effect. Results are robust when using different windows sizes and counterfactuals

El impacto de las intervenciones cambiarias en Colombia. Un estudio de eventos

Hasta la fecha, hay gran controversia sobre el modelo de tipo de cambio que se debe utilizar o el mecanismo de transmisión que debe ser considerado para medir los efectos de la política monetaria. Dado que la mayoría de la literatura se basa en modelos estructurales como estrategia de identificación, la validez de los resultados depende, en gran medida, de la validez de sus supuestos. Este artículo compara los efectos de diferentes tipos de intervenciones para el caso colombiano durante el período 2000-2012, sin imponer supuestos paramétricos restrictivos y sin la necesidad de adoptar un modelo estructural. Nuestros resultados muestran que todos los tipos de intervención cambiaria (opciones de acumulación de reservas, opciones de volatilidad e intervenciones discrecionales) han tenido éxito según el criterio de suavización en el estudio de eventos. En particular, las opciones de volatilidad parecen haber tenido el mayor efecto. Los resultados son robustos cuando se utilizan ventanas de diferentes tamaños y diferentes escenarios.To date, there is still great controversy as to which exchange rate model should be used or which monetary channel should be considered, when measuring the effects of monetary policy. Since most of the literature relies on structural models to address identification problems, the validity of results largely turn on how accurate these assumptions are in describing the full extent of the economy. In this paper we compare the effects of different types of central bank intervention for the Colombian case during 2000-2012, without imposing restrictive parametric assumptions or without the need to adopt a structural model. Using an event study approach, we find that all types of interventions (international reserve accumulation options, volatility options and discretionary) have been successful according to the smoothing criterion. In particular, volatility options had the strongest effect. Results are robust when using different windows sizes and counterfactuals

Reflexiones sobre el proceso de admisión de la Universidad de Antioquia, a propósito de una experiencia de intervención social

Este artículo da cuenta de una experiencia de intervención social con los bachilleres aspirantes a la universidad de antioquia, durante el segundo semestre de 1999. Ante el diagnóstico, de los autores, de poca solidaridad brindada por la institución a estos ciudadanos, se propuso una intervención caracterizada por el tratamiento solidario a los aspirantes durante el examen de admisión y se propusieron dos hipótesis: la primera, que los intervenidos tendran un mejor desempeño con relación a los controles y la segunda, que los primeros se llevarían una mejor imágen de la institución (esta última no sería puesta a prueba en esta oportunidad). Los datos negaron la primera hipótesis. En los análisis se tuvo acceso a los resultados del ICFES y estos revelaron lo que parece ser un sesgo en la selección de carrera, pues parece ser el resultado del ICFES el que orienta la decisión

Impact of Morbid Obesity and Obesity Phenotype on Outcomes After Transcatheter Aortic Valve Replacement

There is a paucity of outcome data on patients who are morbidly obese (MO) undergoing transcatheter aortic valve replacement. We aimed to determine their periprocedural and midterm outcomes and investigate the impact of obesity phenotype. Consecutive patients who are MO (body mass index, ≥40 kg/m 2, or ≥35 kg/m 2 with obesity-related comorbidities; n=910) with severe aortic stenosis who underwent transcatheter aortic valve replacement in 18 tertiary hospitals were compared with a nonobese cohort (body mass index, 18.5-29.9 kg/m 2, n=2264). Propensity-score matching resulted in 770 pairs. Pre-transcatheter aortic valve replacement computed tomography scans were centrally analyzed to assess adipose tissue distribution; epicardial, abdominal visceral and subcutaneous fat. Major vascular complications were more common (6.6% versus 4.3%; P =0.043) and device success was less frequent (84.4% versus 88.1%; P =0.038) in the MO group. Freedom from all-cause and cardiovascular mortality were similar at 2 years (79.4 versus 80.6%, P =0.731; and 88.7 versus 87.4%, P =0.699; MO and nonobese, respectively). Multivariable analysis identified baseline glomerular filtration rate and nontransfemoral access as independent predictors of 2-year mortality in the MO group. An adverse MO phenotype with an abdominal visceral adipose tissue:subcutaneous adipose tissue ratio ≥1 (VAT:SAT) was associated with increased 2-year all-cause (hazard ratio [HR], 3.06; 95% CI, 1.20-7.77; P =0.019) and cardiovascular (hazard ratio, 4.11; 95% CI, 1.06-15.90; P =0.041) mortality, and readmissions (HR, 1.81; 95% CI, 1.07-3.07; P =0.027). After multivariable analysis, a (VAT:SAT) ratio ≥1 remained a strong predictor of 2-year mortality (hazard ratio, 2.78; P =0.035). Transcatheter aortic valve replacement in patients who are MO has similar short- and midterm outcomes to nonobese patients, despite higher major vascular complications and lower device success. An abdominal VAT:SAT ratio ≥1 identifies an obesity phenotype at higher risk of adverse clinical outcomes