Money and Risk Aversion in a DSGE Framework: A Bayesian Application to the Euro Zone

In this paper, we set up and test a model of the Euro zone, with a special emphasis on the role of money. The model follows the New Keynesian DSGE framework, money being introduced in the utility function with a non-separability assumption. By using bayesian estimation techniques, we shed light on the determinants of output and inflation, but also of the interest rate, real money balances, flexible-price output and flexible-price real money balances variances. The role of money is investigated further. We find that its impact on output depends on the degree of agents’ risk aversion, increases with this degree, and becomes significant when risk aversion is high enough. The direct impact of the money variable on inflation variability is essentially minor whatever the risk aversion level, the interest rate (monetary policy) being the overwhelming explanatory factor.Bayesian Estimation; DSGE Model; Euro Area; Money

Money in a DSGE framework with an application to the Euro Zone

In the current New Keynesian literature, the role of monetary aggregates is generally neglected. Yet it’s hard to imagine money completely “passive” to the rest of the system. By entering real money balances in a non-separable utility function, we introduce an explicit role for money via preference redefinition in a simple New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model. It involves new inflation and output gap specifications where money plays a significant role. We use the General Method of Moments (GMM) to calibrate our DSGE model of the Euro area and we show that the European Central Bank –ECB) should react more strongly to economic shocks as far as the role of money is found significant.ECB; Inflation; Monetary Policy; Money

Money and risk aversion in a DSGE framework : a bayesian application to the euro zone

Cet article présente un modèle théorique et empirique de la zone euro, en mettant en perspective le rôle de la monnaie. Le modèle s'inscrit dans le cadre " Nouveaux Keynésiens-DSGE ", la monnaie étant introduite dans la fonction d'utilité des ménages sous une forme non-séparable. En testant le modèle selon la méthode bayésienne nous expliquons la variance de la production et de l'inflation, mais aussi du taux d'intérêt, des balances réelles, de la production et des balances réelles en prix flexibles. Le rôle de la monnaie est analysé plus particulièrement. Nous montrons que son impact sur la production dépend du degré d'aversion au risque des agents, qu'il augmente avec ce degré, et qu'il devient significatif quand l'aversion au risque inter-temporel est suffisamment élevée. L'impact direct de la monnaie est en revanche très limité pour expliquer la variance de l'inflation, la politique monétaire, via le taux d'intérêt, constituant le facteur dominant.Estimation bayésienne ; Modèle DSGE ; Monnaie ; Zone euro

Money in a DSGE framework with an application to the Euro Zone

Le «nouveau keynésianisme» actuel néglige le rôle des aggrégats monétaires dans la détermination de l¿équilibre économique. On peut se poser des questions sur cette vision tant il est difficile d¿admettre que la monnaie serait une variable «passive» du système économique. En introduisant les balances réelles dans une fonction d¿utilité non-séparable, cet article incorpore explicitement le rôle de la monnaie dans un modèle du type DSGE. Cette spécification débouche sur des équations d¿inflation et d¿output gap dans lesquelles les encaisses monétaires jouent un rôle significatif. Le modèle DSGE est calibré par la General Method of Moments (GMM) appliqué aux données de la zone Euro. Les résultats et l¿analyse démontrent que dans la mesure où la croissance monétaire joue un rôle significatif, la BCE devrait réagir plus vigoureusement aux chocs économiques qu¿elle ne le fait généralement.BCE ; Inflation ; Monnaie ; Politique monétaire

Risk Aversion in the Euro area

ED-EPSInternational audienceWe propose a New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model where a risk aversion shock enters a separable utility function. We analyze five periods, each one lasting twenty years, to follow over time the dynamics of several parameters (such as the risk aversion parameter), the Taylor rule coefficients and the role of this risk aversion shock on output and real money balances in the Eurozone. Our analysis suggests that risk aversion was a more important component of output and real money balance dynamics between 2006 and 2011 than it had been between 1971 and 2006, at least in the short run

Money and risk aversion in a DSGE framework: a Bayesian application to the Euro zone

In this paper, we set up and test a model of the Euro zone, with a special emphasis on the role of money. The model follows the New Keynesian DSGE framework, money being introduced in the utility function with a non-separability assumption. By using Bayesian estimation techniques, we shed light on the determinants of output and inflation, but also of the interest rate, real money balances, flexible-price output and flexible-price real money balances variances. The role of money is investigated further. We find that its impact on output depends on the degree of agents' risk aversion, increases with this degree, and becomes significant when risk aversion is high enough. The direct impact of the money variable on inflation variability is essentially minor whatever the risk aversion level, the interest rate (monetary policy) being the overwhelming explanatory factor

The role of money and monetary policy in crisis periods: the Euro area case

In this paper, we test two models of the Eurozone, with a special emphasis on the role of money and monetary policy during crises. The role of separability between money and consumption is investigated further and we analyse the Euro area economy during three different crises: 1992, 2001 and 2007. We …find that money has a rather signi…ficant role to play in explaining output variations during crises whereas, at the same time, the role of monetary policy on output decreases significantly. Moreover, we …find that a model with non-separability between consumption and money has better forecasting performance than a baseline separable model over crisis periods.Euro area ; Money ; DSGE forecasting

Money and monetary policy in Israel during the last decade

This study examines how money and monetary policy have influenced output and inflation during the past decade in Israel by comparing two New Keynesian DSGE models. One is a baseline separable model (Galí, 2008) and the other assumes non-separable household preferences between consumption and money (Benchimol & Fourçans, 2012). We test both models by using rolling window Bayesian estimations over the last decade (2001–2013). The results of the presented dynamic analysis show that the sensitivity of output with respect to money shocks increased during the Dot-com, Intifada, and Subprime crises. The role of monetary policy increased during these crises, especially with regard to inflation, even though the effectiveness of conventional monetary policy decreased during the Subprime crisis. In addition, the non-separable model including money provides lower forecast errors than the baseline separable model without money, while the influence of money on output fluctuations can be seen as a good predictive indicator of bank and debt risks. By impacting and monitoring households’ money holdings, policy makers could improve their forecasts and crisis management through models considering monetary aggregates

Money and monetary policy in Israel during the last decade

This study examines how money and monetary policy have influenced output and inflation during the past decade in Israel by comparing two New Keynesian DSGE models. One is a baseline separable model (Galí, 2008) and the other assumes non-separable household preferences between consumption and money (Benchimol & Fourçans, 2012). We test both models by using rolling window Bayesian estimations over the last decade (2001–2013). The results of the presented dynamic analysis show that the sensitivity of output with respect to money shocks increased during the Dot-com, Intifada, and Subprime crises. The role of monetary policy increased during these crises, especially with regard to inflation, even though the effectiveness of conventional monetary policy decreased during the Subprime crisis. In addition, the non-separable model including money provides lower forecast errors than the baseline separable model without money, while the influence of money on output fluctuations can be seen as a good predictive indicator of bank and debt risks. By impacting and monitoring households’ money holdings, policy makers could improve their forecasts and crisis management through models considering monetary aggregates

rNAV 2.0: a visualization tool for bacterial sRNA-mediated regulatory networks mining

Data description. Data description and availability, and parameter settings used in this study. (PDF 101 kb