A reinvestigation of the stock price reactions to announcements of Black top executive appointments

We investigate the stock market reactions to the announcements of Black CEO and top management team (TMT) appointments in light of two conflicting studies that advance competing and opposite theories. In 2021, Gligor and colleagues theorized that reactions will be negative due to racial stereotyping, and found negative mean stock price reactions for both Black CEOs and TMTs. Conversely, in 2023, Jeong and colleagues theorized that the stock market will respond positively to the appointment of Black CEOs, because these CEOs have to meet a “higher bar” to be appointed. They reported a positive mean reaction to such appointments. In our quasi-replication of these two prior studies, we find a reliably positive mean reaction for Black CEOs but an immaterial median reaction, and no marginal stock price impact to the announcement of the appointment of a Black CEO and TMT executives after controlling for explanatory factors that go outside the racial bias and higher bar theories. In light of the fragility and lack of robustness in these results, we recommend that future research in the area of Black top executives and the stock market be cautious when presenting and interpreting results

Determinants of the round-to-round returns to pre-IPO venture capital investments in U.S. biotechnology companies

I propose that pre-IPO venture-backed biotech companies offer a useful new setting through which to evaluate the relative merits of theories for why firm size and book-to-market explain variation in stock returns. This is because pre-IPO biotech firms have large and rapidly evolving growth options relative to assets-in-place. Such attributes align closely with the key features of Berk et al.’s (1999) model of the endogenous relations between growth options, optimal investment actions and expected equity returns, where firm size and book-to-market emerge as sufficient statistics for the aggregate risk of a firm’s assets-in-place. Using venture capital investments in pre-IPO U.S. biotech companies during 1992-2001, I find that equity returns between financing rounds (‘round-to-round’ returns) are reliably negatively related to firm size and positively related to book-to-market ratios. I interpret these results as being most consistent with Berk et al.’s theory, and less consistent with alternative explanations such as financial distress, behaviorally biased investors or data snooping

Biases in Multi-Year Management Financial Forecasts: Evidence From Private Venture-Backed U.S. Companies

This paper studies the properties and determinants of managers’ multi-year financial forecasts. Using one- to five-year-ahead forecasts reported by private venture-backed firms, we ask whether, by how much, and why biases in managers’ forecasts of revenues, expenses and profits depend on the forecasting horizon and the verifiability of assets. We find that profitability forecasts contain a strategic component, in that [1] one-year-ahead revenue (expense) forecasts are slightly and asymmetrically pessimistic (optimistic), while five-year-ahead forecasts are hugely and asymmetrically optimistic (pessimistic); and [2] biases in revenue and expense forecasts are larger, the harder to verify or more intangible-intensive are firms’ assets

Market-to-Revenue Multiples in Public and Private Capital Markets

The behavior and determinants of market-to-revenue ratios in public and private capital markets is examined. Three samples are analysed: (1) all publicly traded stocks listed at some time on the New York Stock Exchange/American Stock Exchange/National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System in the 1980—2004 period; (2) sample of over 300 so-called ‘internet companies’ in the 1996—2004 period; and (3) over 5500 privately held venture capital-backed companies in the 1992—2004 period. Both company size and the most recent revenue growth rate are found to explain significant variation across companies in their market-to-revenue multiples — smaller companies and companies with higher recent revenue growth rates have higher multiples. We also document how the capital market appears to use a broad-based information set when setting market-to-revenue multiples for companies with negative revenue growth rates — transitory revenue growth components appear to be identified (in a probabilistic sense) by the capital market. Contrary to much anecdotal comment, we present evidence that the capital market behaved directionally along the lines predicted by capital market theory in the pricing of internet stocks in the 1996—2004 period

WISE/NEOWISE Observations of Comet 103P/Hartley 2

We report results based on mid-infrared photometry of comet 103P/Hartley 2 taken during 2010 May 4-13 (when the comet was at a heliocentric distance of 2.3 AU, and an observer distance of 2.0 AU) by the Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer. Photometry of the coma at 22 μm and data from the University of Hawaii 2.2 m telescope obtained on 2010 May 22 provide constraints on the dust particle size distribution, d log n/d log m, yielding power-law slope values of alpha = –0.97 ± 0.10, steeper than that found for the inbound particle fluence during the Stardust encounter of comet 81P/Wild 2. The extracted nucleus signal at 12 μm is consistent with a body of average spherical radius of 0.6 ± 0.2 km (one standard deviation), assuming a beaming parameter of 1.2. The 4.6 μm band signal in excess of dust and nucleus reflected and thermal contributions may be attributed to carbon monoxide or carbon dioxide emission lines and provides limits and estimates of species production. Derived carbon dioxide coma production rates are 3.5(± 0.9) × 10^(24) molecules per second. Analyses of the trail signal present in the stacked image with an effective exposure time of 158.4 s yields optical-depth values near 9 × 10^(–10) at a delta mean anomaly of 0.2 deg trailing the comet nucleus, in both 12 and 22 μm bands. A minimum chi-squared analysis of the dust trail position yields a beta-parameter value of 1.0 × 10^(–4), consistent with a derived mean trail-grain diameter of 1.1/ρ cm for grains of ρ g cm^(–3) density. This leads to a total detected trail mass of at least 4 × 10^(10) ρ kg

A Smartphone-based Decision Support Tool Improves Test Performance Concerning Application of the Guidelines for Managing Regional Anesthesia in the Patient Receiving Antithrombotic or Thrombolytic Therapy

BACKGROUND: The American Society of Regional Anesthesia and Pain Medicine (ASRA) consensus statement on regional anesthesia in the patient receiving antithrombotic or thrombolytic therapy is the standard for evaluation and management of these patients. The authors hypothesized that an electronic decision support tool (eDST) would improve test performance compared with native physician behavior concerning the application of this guideline. METHODS: Anesthesiology trainees and faculty at 8 institutions participated in a prospective, randomized trial in which they completed a 20-question test involving clinical scenarios related to the ASRA guidelines. The eDST group completed the test using an iOS app programmed to contain decision logic and content of the ASRA guidelines. The control group completed the test by using any resource in addition to the app. A generalized linear mixed-effects model was used to examine the effect of the intervention. RESULTS: After obtaining institutional review board's approval and informed consent, 259 participants were enrolled and randomized (eDST = 122; control = 137). The mean score was 92.4 ± 6.6% in the eDST group and 68.0 ± 15.8% in the control group (P < 0.001). eDST use increased the odds of selecting correct answers (7.8; 95% CI, 5.7 to 10.7). Most control group participants (63%) used some cognitive aid during the test, and they scored higher than those who tested from memory alone (76 ± 15% vs. 57 ± 18%, P < 0.001). There was no difference in time to completion of the test (P = 0.15) and no effect of training level (P = 0.56). CONCLUSIONS: eDST use improved application of the ASRA guidelines compared with the native clinician behavior in a testing environment

Total Dissolved Gas Effects on Incubating Chum Salmon Below Bonneville Dam

At the request of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE; Portland District), Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) undertook a project in 2006 to look further into issues of total dissolved gas (TDG) supersaturation in the lower Columbia River downstream of Bonneville Dam. In FY 2008, the third year of the project, PNNL conducted field monitoring and laboratory toxicity testing to both verify results from 2007 and answer some additional questions about how salmonid sac fry respond to elevated TDG in the field and the laboratory. For FY 2008, three objectives were 1) to repeat the 2006-2007 field effort to collect empirical data on TDG from the Ives Island and Multnomah Falls study sites; 2) to repeat the static laboratory toxicity tests on hatchery chum salmon fry to verify 2007 results and to expose wild chum salmon fry to incremental increases in TDG, above those of the static test, until external symptoms of gas bubble disease were clearly present; and 3) to assess physiological responses to TDG levels in wild chum salmon sac fry incubating below Bonneville Dam during spill operations. This report summarizes the tasks conducted and results obtained in pursuit of the three objectives. Chapter 1 discusses the field monitoring, Chapter 2 reports the findings of the laboratory toxicity tests, and Chapter 3 describes the field-sampling task. Each chapter contains an objective-specific introduction, description of the study site and methods, results of research, and discussion of findings. Literature cited throughout this report is listed in Chapter 4. Additional details on the monitoring methodology and results are provided in Appendices A and B included on the compact disc bound inside the back cover of the printed version of this report

Climate Change Meets the Law of the Horse

The climate change policy debate has only recently turned its full attention to adaptation - how to address the impacts of climate change we have already begun to experience and that will likely increase over time. Legal scholars have in turn begun to explore how the many different fields of law will and should respond. During this nascent period, one overarching question has gone unexamined: how will the legal system as a whole organize around climate change adaptation? Will a new distinct field of climate change adaptation law and policy emerge, or will legal institutions simply work away at the problem through unrelated, duly self-contained fields, as in the famous Law of the Horse? This Article is the first to examine that question comprehensively, to move beyond thinking about the law and climate change adaptation to consider the law of climate change adaptation. Part I of the Article lays out our methodological premises and approach. Using a model we call Stationarity Assessment, Part I explores how legal fields are structured and sustained based on assumptions about the variability of natural, social, and economic conditions, and how disruptions to that regime of variability can lead to the emergence of new fields of law and policy. Case studies of environmental law and environmental justice demonstrate the model’s predictive power for the formation of new distinct legal regimes. Part II applies the Stationarity Assessment model to the topic of climate change adaptation, using a case study of a hypothetical coastal region and the potential for climate change impacts to disrupt relevant legal doctrines and institutions. We find that most fields of law appear capable of adapting effectively to climate change. In other words, without some active intervention, we expect the law and policy of climate change adaptation to follow the path of the Law of the Horse - a collection of fields independently adapting to climate change - rather than organically coalescing into a new distinct field. Part III explores why, notwithstanding this conclusion, it may still be desirable to seek a different trajectory. Focusing on the likelihood of systemic adaptation decisions with perverse, harmful results, we identify the potential benefits offered by intervening to shape a new and distinct field of climate change adaptation law and policy. Part IV then identifies the contours of such a field, exploring the distinct purposes of reducing vulnerability, ensuring resiliency, and safeguarding equity. These features provide the normative policy components for a law of climate change adaptation that would be more than just a Law of the Horse. This new field would not replace or supplant any existing field, however, as environmental law did with regard to nuisance law, and it would not be dominated by substantive doctrine. Rather, like the field of environmental justice, this new legal regime would serve as a holistic overlay across other fields to ensure more efficient, effective, and just climate change adaptation solutions