Majority Dynamics and Aggregation of Information in Social Networks

Consider n individuals who, by popular vote, choose among q >= 2 alternatives, one of which is "better" than the others. Assume that each individual votes independently at random, and that the probability of voting for the better alternative is larger than the probability of voting for any other. It follows from the law of large numbers that a plurality vote among the n individuals would result in the correct outcome, with probability approaching one exponentially quickly as n tends to infinity. Our interest in this paper is in a variant of the process above where, after forming their initial opinions, the voters update their decisions based on some interaction with their neighbors in a social network. Our main example is "majority dynamics", in which each voter adopts the most popular opinion among its friends. The interaction repeats for some number of rounds and is then followed by a population-wide plurality vote. The question we tackle is that of "efficient aggregation of information": in which cases is the better alternative chosen with probability approaching one as n tends to infinity? Conversely, for which sequences of growing graphs does aggregation fail, so that the wrong alternative gets chosen with probability bounded away from zero? We construct a family of examples in which interaction prevents efficient aggregation of information, and give a condition on the social network which ensures that aggregation occurs. For the case of majority dynamics we also investigate the question of unanimity in the limit. In particular, if the voters' social network is an expander graph, we show that if the initial population is sufficiently biased towards a particular alternative then that alternative will eventually become the unanimous preference of the entire population.Comment: 22 page

Towards precision medicine for hypertension: a review of genomic, epigenomic, and microbiomic effects on blood pressure in experimental rat models and humans

Compelling evidence for the inherited nature of essential hypertension has led to extensive research in rats and humans. Rats have served as the primary model for research on the genetics of hypertension resulting in identification of genomic regions that are causally associated with hypertension. In more recent times, genome-wide studies in humans have also begun to improve our understanding of the inheritance of polygenic forms of hypertension. Based on the chronological progression of research into the genetics of hypertension as the "structural backbone," this review catalogs and discusses the rat and human genetic elements mapped and implicated in blood pressure regulation. Furthermore, the knowledge gained from these genetic studies that provide evidence to suggest that much of the genetic influence on hypertension residing within noncoding elements of our DNA and operating through pervasive epistasis or gene-gene interactions is highlighted. Lastly, perspectives on current thinking that the more complex "triad" of the genome, epigenome, and the microbiome operating to influence the inheritance of hypertension, is documented. Overall, the collective knowledge gained from rats and humans is disappointing in the sense that major hypertension-causing genes as targets for clinical management of essential hypertension may not be a clinical reality. On the other hand, the realization that the polygenic nature of hypertension prevents any single locus from being a relevant clinical target for all humans directs future studies on the genetics of hypertension towards an individualized genomic approach

Comparison of bulk milk antibody and youngstock serology screens for determining herd status for Bovine Viral Diarrhoea Virus

BACKGROUND: This paper examines the use of Bulk Milk antibody (BM Ab), Youngstock (YS) serology (Check Tests) and Bulk Milk PCR (BM PCR) for determining the presence or absence of animals persistently infected (PI) with Bovine Viral Diarrhoea Virus (BVDV) within a herd. Data is presented from 26 herds where average herd sizes were 343 and 98 animals for dairy and beef units respectively. Seventeen herds had sufficient data to analyse using Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) and probability curves enabling calculation of the sensitivity and specificity of BM Ab and YS Check tests for determining the presence of PI animals within herds in this dataset. RESULTS: Using BM Ab to screen a herd for the presence of PI animals, achieved a herd level sensitivity and specificity of 80.00 % (44.39–97.48 %) and 85.71 % (42.13–99.64 %) respectively (95 % confidence intervals quoted). Sensitivity and specificity of YS Check Tests at a cut off of 3/10 Ab positive YS were 81.82 % (48.22–97.72 %) and 66.67 % (22.28–95.67 %) respectively (95 % confidence interval). These results were achieved by comparing the screening tests to whole herd PI searches that took place 1–19 months after the initial screen with a mean interval of 8 months. Removal of this delay by taking BM samples on the day of a whole herd test and simulating a YS Check Test from the herd test data produced improvements in the reliability of the Check Tests. BM Ab sensitivity and specificity remained unchanged. However, the Check Test sensitivity and specificity improved to 90.9 % (58.72–99.77 %) and 100 % (54.07–100 %) respectively (95 % confidence interval) at a cut of off 2.5/10 Ab positive animals. Our limited BM PCR results identified 5/23 dairy farms with a positive BM PCR result; two contained milking PIs, two had non-milking PIs and another had no PIs identified. CONCLUSIONS: Delaying a PI search following an initial herd screen decreased the diagnostic accuracy and relevance of our results. With careful interpretation, longitudinal surveillance using a combination of the techniques discussed can successfully determine farm status and therefore allow changes in BVDV status to be detected early, thus enabling prompt action in the event of a BVDV incursion

Health-related quality of life and a cost-utility simulation of adults in the UK with osteogenesis imperfecta, X-linked hypophosphatemia and fibrous dysplasia.

BACKGROUND: Health-related quality of life of adults with osteogenesis imperfecta (OI), fibrous dysplasia (FD) and X-linked hypophosphatemia (XLH) remains poorly described. The aim of this study was to describe the HRQoL of adults with osteogenesis imperfecta, fibrous dysplasia and X-linked hypophophataemia and perform a cost-utility simulation to calculate the maximum cost that a health care system would be willing to pay for a hypothetical treatment of a rare bone disease. RESULTS: Participants completed the EQ-5D-5 L questionnaire between September 2014 and March 2016. For the economic simulation, we considered a hypothetical treatment that would be applied to OI participants in the lower tertile of the health utility score. A total of 109 study participants fully completed the EQ-5D-5 L questionnaire (response rate 63%). Pain/discomfort was the most problematic domain for participants with all three diseases (FD 31%, XLH 25%, OI 16%). The economic simulation identified an expected treatment impact of +2.5 QALYs gained per person during the 10-year period, which led to a willing to pay of £14,355 annually for a health care system willing to pay up to £50,000 for each additional QALY gained by an intervention. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first study to quantitatively measure and compare the HRQoL of adults with OI, FD and XLH and the first to use such data to conduct an economic simulation leading to healthcare system willingness-to-pay estimates for treatment of musculoskeletal rare diseases at various cost-effectiveness thresholds

Impact of Splenectomy on Thrombocytopenia, Chemotherapy, and Survival in Patients with Unresectable Pancreatic Cancer

Patients with unresectable pancreatic cancer (PDAC) or endocrine tumors (PET) often develop splenic vein thrombosis, hypersplenism, and thrombocytopenia which limits the administration of chemotherapy. From 2001 to 2009, 15 patients with recurrent or unresectable PDAC or PET underwent splenectomy for hypersplenism and thrombocytopenia. The clinical variables of this group of patients were analyzed. The overall survival of patients with PDAC was compared to historical controls. Of the 15 total patients, 13 (87%) had PDAC and 2 (13%) had PET. All tumors were either locally advanced (n = 6, 40%) or metastatic (n = 9, 60%). The platelet counts significantly increased after splenectomy (p < 0.01). All patients were able to resume chemotherapy within a median of 11.5 days (range 6–27). The patients with PDAC had a median survival of 20 months (range 4–67) from the time of diagnosis and 10.6 months (range 0.6–39.8) from the time of splenectomy. Splenectomy for patients with unresectable PDAC or PET who developed hypersplenism and thrombocytopenia that limited the administration of chemotherapy, significantly increased platelet counts, and led to resumption of treatment in all patients. Patients with PDAC had better disease-specific survival as compared to historical controls

Congenital Hypothyroidism Long‐Term Follow‐up Project: Navigating the Rough Waters of a Multi‐Center, Multi‐State Public Health Project

The Region 4 Midwest Genetics Collaborative, made up of seven regional states (Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio, and Wisconsin), brought together pediatric endocrinologists, state laboratory experts, public health follow‐up specialists, and parents of children with congenital hypothyroidism (CH) to identify the three‐year follow‐up management and education patterns of primary care clinicians and pediatric endocrinologists in the care of children diagnosed with CH by state newborn screening (NBS) programs. Among a number of challenges, each state had different NBS methods, data systems, public health laws, and institutional review board (IRB) requirements. Furthermore, the diagnosis of CH was complicated by the timing of the NBS sample, the gestational age, weight, and co‐morbidities at delivery. There were 409 children with CH identified through NBS in 2007 in the seven state region. The clinician of record and the parents of these children were invited to participate in a voluntary survey. Approximately 64 % of clinician surveys were collected with responses to questions relating to treatment, monitoring practices, educational resources, genetic counseling, and services provided to children with confirmed CH and their families. Nearly one‐quarter (24 %) of parents surveyed responded to questions relating to treatment, education, genetic counseling, resources, and services they received or would like to receive. De‐identified data from six of the seven states were compiled for analysis, with one state being unable to obtain IRB approval within the study timeline. The data from this collaborative effort will improve state follow‐up programs and aid in developing three‐year follow‐up guidelines for children diagnosed with CH. To aid in the facilitation of similar public health studies, this manuscript highlights the challenges faced, and focuses on the pathway to a successful multi‐state public health endeavor.Peer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/147153/1/jgc40464.pd

Association between perinatal depression in mothers and the risk of childhood infections in offspring: a population-based cohort study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Previous studies have suggested that children of mothers who experience depression during the perinatal period may have more infections, but such studies are few in number and none have been carried out in the United Kingdom (UK) population. The aim of this study was to investigate the association between perinatal depression in mothers and the risk of childhood infections in offspring in the UK general population.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We used data from The Health Improvement Network (THIN), a large database of electronic primary care medical records to conduct a cohort study among all first-born singleton children born and enrolled in THIN between 1988 and 2004. We used Poisson regression to compare the incidence of gastrointestinal infections and lower respiratory tract infections reported between birth and age 4 years among children of mothers with a record of perinatal depression with those born to mothers with no such history.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Children of mothers with perinatal depression had a 40% increased risk of gastrointestinal infections and a 27% increased risk of lower respiratory tract infections compared with children of mothers without perinatal depression (incidence rate ratios = 1.40 and 1.27; 95% confidence intervals 1.37-1.42 and 1.22-1.32, respectively). On restricting to antibiotic-treated infections there was a slight increase in the magnitude of association with gastrointestinal infections but a decrease in that with lower respiratory tract infections (incidence rate ratios = 1.47 and 1.19; 95% confidence intervals 1.34-1.61 and 1.11-1.27, respectively).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Maternal perinatal depression is associated with increased rates of childhood gastrointestinal infections, particularly more severe infections, and lower respiratory tract infections in the UK. Preventing maternal perinatal depression may avoid substantial morbidity among offspring, although further work is also needed to investigate the detailed reasons for these findings.</p

A telephone survey of parental attitudes and behaviours regarding teenage drinking

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Irish teenagers demonstrate high rates of drunkenness and there has been a progressive fall in age of first drinking in recent decades. International research indicates that parents exert substantial influence over their teenager's drinking. We sought to determine the attitudes and behaviours of Irish parents towards drinking by their adolescent children.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We conducted a telephone survey of a representative sample of of 234 parents who had a teenager aged between 13 and 17 years.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Six per cent reported that they would be unconcerned if their son or daughter was to binge drink once per month. On the issue of introducing children to alcohol in the home, 27% viewed this as a good idea while 63% disagreed with this practice. Eleven per cent of parents reported that they had given a drink to their teenager at home. Parents who drank regularly themselves, who were from higher socio-demographic groups and who lived in the east of Ireland demonstrated more permissive attitudes to teenage drinking.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>We found no evidence of widespread permissive attitudes and behaviours among Irish parents. Given that parental influences have been demonstrated to exert substantial impact on teenage drinking, it may be possible to harness the concerns of Irish parents more effectively to reverse the trends of escalating alcohol related harm in Ireland.</p

An exploration of men's experiences of undergoing active surveillance for favourable-risk prostate cancer: A mixed methods study protocol

BACKGROUND: Prostate cancer is one of the most common male cancers worldwide. Active Surveillance (AS) has been developed to allow men with lower risk disease to postpone or avoid the adverse side effects associated with curative treatments until the disease progresses. Despite the medical benefits of AS, it is reported that living with untreated cancer can create a significant emotional burden for patients. METHODS/DESIGN: The aim of this study is to gain insight into the experiences of men eligible to undergo AS for favourable-risk PCa. This study has a mixed-methods sequential explanatory design consisting of two phases: quantitative followed by qualitative. Phase 1 has a multiple point, prospective, longitudinal exploratory design. Ninety men diagnosed with favourable-risk prostate cancer will be assessed immediately post-diagnosis (baseline) and followed over a period of 12 months, in intervals of 3 month. Ninety age-matched men with no cancer diagnosis will also be recruited using peer nomination and followed up in the same 3 month intervals. Following completion of Phase 1, 10-15 AS participants who have reported both the best and worst psychological functioning will be invited to participate in semi-structured qualitative interviews. Phase 2 will facilitate further exploration of the quantitative results and obtain a richer understanding of participants' personal interpretations of their illness and psychological wellbeing. DISCUSSION: To our knowledge, this is the first study to utilise early baseline measures; include a healthy comparison group; calculate sample size through power calculations; and use a mixed methods approach to gain a deeper more holistic insight into the experiences of men diagnosed with favourable-risk prostate cancer

Comparing exercise interventions to increase persistence with physical exercise and sporting activity among people with hypertension or high normal blood pressure: study protocol for a randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND: Increasing physical activity is known to have health benefits for people with hypertension and related conditions. Current general practitioner referrals for gym-based exercise increase physical activity but meta-analyses show that while these are effective the absolute health risk reduction is small due to patients failing to maintain activity levels over time. This study assesses the effectiveness of two sports-oriented interventions that are intended to bridge the intention-behaviour gap and thus increase the likelihood of sustained increases in physical activity. METHODS/DESIGN: Four-arm randomised controlled trial. The study tests two types of intervention that are intended to increase physical activity among currently inactive 18- to 74-year-old people with hypertension or high-normal blood pressure. This study will assess the effectiveness of a 12-week sports-oriented exercise programme, the efficacy of a web-delivered self-help tool to promote and support sports participation and healthy behaviour change and the effect of these interventions in combination. The control arm will be a standard care general practitioner referral for gym-based exercise. Participants will be allocated using block randomisation. The first author and primary analyst is blinded to participant allocation. The primary outcome measures will be time spent in physical activity assessed in metabolic equivalent minutes per week using the International Physical Activity Questionnaire 1 year after commencement of the intervention. Secondary outcomes include increased involvement in sporting activity and biomedical health outcomes including change in body mass index, and waist and hip measurement and reductions in blood pressure. DISCUSSION: If proven to be superior to general practitioner referrals for gym-based exercise, these sports-oriented interventions would constitute low-cost alternatives. The next stage would be a full economic evaluation of the interventions. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN71952900 (7 June 2013)