The development of problem-solving abilities in typical and atypical development

Throughout our lives we engage in problem solving, which is thought to depend on executive functions (EFs) e.g., inhibition, shifting and working memory. Previous work has identified the need to consider these abilities in an everyday context. EF skills are known to be impaired in Williams syndrome (WS) and Down syndrome (DS). This thesis aims to investigate experimental and real-life problem solving in WS and DS, and how these groups use EF skills to solve problems, through experimental and questionnaire-based cross-syndrome comparisons.\ud \ud Participants with WS and DS aged 12-24 years (Ns=20) and typically developing (TD) controls (N=56; nonverbal matched subset = 20) completed the Tower of London (TOL) problem-solving task and a battery of EF tests. In a separate study, parents (WS, DS, TD; total N=112) completed the BRIEF (Behavioral Rating Inventory of Executive Functioning) and a novel Problem-Solving Questionnaire.\ud \ud The WS group, but not the DS group, scored more poorly on the TOL than the nonverbal-matched controls. In WS, developmental trajectory analysis indicated over-reliance on planning for TOL performance for low planning scores. For the DS group only speed of picture matching was associated with TOL performance, while more rule violations were exhibited than for the WS group. Questionnaire scores were poor for the WS group in relation to DS and TD groups. Asking for help for the DS group, and becoming emotional for the WS group, was related to reaching the solution. In general, associations between experimental and everyday measures were scarce.\ud \ud It was concluded that: while EFs (planning, visuospatial working memory) were constraining factors for WS problem solving, alternative strategies were used by the DS group to reach the solution; real-life problem solving should be considered in its own right; and poor WS problem solving may be related to emotional difficulties

Tropical cyclones in the UPSCALE ensemble of high resolution global climate models

The UPSCALE (UK on PRACE: weather-resolving Simulations of Climate for globAL Environmental risk) project, using PRACE (Partnership for Advanced Computing in Europe) resources, constructed and ran an ensemble of atmosphere-only global climate model simulations, using the Met Office Unified Model GA3 configuration. Each simulation is 27 years in length for both the present climate and an end-of-century future climate, at resolutions of N96 (130 km), N216 (60 km) and N512 (25 km), in order to study the impact of model resolution on high impact climate features such as tropical cyclones. Increased model resolution is found to improve the simulated frequency of explicitly tracked tropical cyclones, and correlations of interannual variability in the North Atlantic and North West Pacific lie between 0.6 and 0.75. Improvements in the deficit of genesis in the eastern North Atlantic as resolution increases appear to be related to the representation of African Easterly Waves and the African Easterly Jet. However, the intensity of the modelled tropical cyclones as measured by 10 m wind speed remain weak, and there is no indication of convergence over this range of resolutions. In the future climate ensemble, there is a reduction of 50% in the frequency of Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclones, while in the Northern Hemisphere there is a reduction in the North Atlantic, and a shift in the Pacific with peak intensities becoming more common in the Central Pacific. There is also a change in tropical cyclone intensities, with the future climate having fewer weak storms and proportionally more stronger storm

Does increased atmospheric resolution improve seasonal climate predictions?

We assess the impact of atmospheric horizontal resolution on the prediction skill and fidelity of seasonal forecasts. We show the response to an increase of atmospheric resolution from 0.8 to 0.3⁰ horizontal grid spacing in parallel ensembles of forecasts. Changes in the prediction skill of major modes of tropical El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and extratropical North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) variability are small and not detected and there is no discernible impact on the weak signal-to-noise ratio in seasonal predictions of the winter NAO at this range of resolutions. Although studies have shown improvements in the simulation of tropical cyclones as model resolution is increased, we find little impact on seasonal prediction skill of either their numbers or intensity. Over this range of resolutions it appears that the benefit of increasing atmospheric resolution to seasonal climate predictions is minimal. However, at yet finer scales there appears to be increased eddy feedback which could strengthen weak signals in predictions of the NAO. Until prediction systems can be run operationally at these scales, it may be better to use additional computing resources for other enhancements such as increased ensemble size, for which there is a clear benefit in extratropical seasonal prediction skill

Tropical Cyclone Prediction on Subseasonal Time-Scales

Here we discuss recent progress in understanding tropical cyclone (TC) subseasonal variability and its prediction. There has been a concerted effort to understand the sources of predictability at subseasonal time-scales, and this effort has continued to make progress in recent years. Besides the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), other modes of variability affect TCs at these time-scales, in particular various equatorial waves. Additionally, TC activity is also modulated by extratropical processes via Rossby wave breaking. There has also been progress in the ability of models to simulate the MJO and its modulation of TC activity. Community efforts have created multi-model ensemble datasets, which have made it possible to evaluate the forecast skill of the MJO and TCs on subseasonal time-scales in multiple forecasting systems. While there is positive skill in some cases, there is strong dependence on the ensemble system considered, the basin examined, and whether the storms have extratropical influences or not. Furthermore, the definition of skill differs among studies. Forecasting centers are currently issuing subseasonal TC forecasts using various techniques (statistical, statistical-dynamical and dynamical). There is also a strong interest in the private sector for forecasts with 3-4 weeks lead time

Impact of model resolution on tropical cyclone simulation using the HighResMIP–PRIMAVERA multimodel Ensemble

A multimodel, multiresolution set of simulations over the period 1950–2014 using a common forcing protocol from CMIP6 HighResMIP have been completed by six modeling groups. Analysis of tropical cyclone performance using two different tracking algorithms suggests that enhanced resolution toward 25 km typically leads to more frequent and stronger tropical cyclones, together with improvements in spatial distribution and storm structure. Both of these factors reduce typical GCM biases seen at lower resolution. Using single ensemble members of each model, there is little evidence of systematic improvement in interannual variability in either storm frequency or accumulated cyclone energy as compared with observations when resolution is increased. Changes in the relationships between large-scale drivers of climate variability and tropical cyclone variability in the Atlantic Ocean are also not robust to model resolution. However, using a larger ensemble of simulations (of up to 14 members) with one model at different resolutions does show evidence of increased skill at higher resolution. The ensemble mean correlation of Atlantic interannual tropical cyclone variability increases from ~0.5 to ~0.65 when resolution increases from 250 to 100 km. In the northwestern Pacific Ocean the skill keeps increasing with 50-km resolution to 0.7. These calculations also suggest that more than six members are required to adequately distinguish the impact of resolution within the forced signal from the weather noise

Cross-syndrome comparison of real-world executive functioning and problem solving using a new problem-solving questionnaire

Background. Individuals with neurodevelopmental disorders like Williams syndrome and Down syndrome exhibit executive function impairments on experimental tasks (Lanfranchi, Jerman, Dal Pont, Alberti, & Vianello, 2010; Menghini, Addona, Costanzo, & Vicari, 2010), but the way that they use executive functioning for problem solving in everyday life has not hitherto been explored. The study aim is to understand cross-syndrome characteristics of everyday executive functioning and problem solving. Methods. Parents/carers of individuals with Williams syndrome (n=47) or Down syndrome (n=31) of a similar chronological age (m =17 years 4 months and 18 years respectively) as well as those of a group of younger typically developing children (n=34; m=8 years 3 months) completed two questionnaires: the Behavior Rating Inventory of Executive Function (BRIEF; Gioia, Isquith, Guy, & Kenworthy, 2000) and a novel Problem-Solving Questionnaire. Results. The rated likelihood of reaching a solution in a problem solving situation was lower for both syndromic groups than the typical group, and lower still for the Williams syndrome group than the Down syndrome group. The proportion of group members meeting the criterion for clinical significance on the BRIEF was also highest for the Williams syndrome group. While changing response, avoiding losing focus and maintaining perseverance were important for problem-solving success in all groups, asking for help and avoiding becoming emotional were also important for the Down syndrome and Williams syndrome groups respectively. Keeping possessions in order was a relative strength amongst BRIEF scales for the Down syndrome group. Conclusion. Results suggest that individuals with Down syndrome tend to use compensatory strategies for problem solving (asking for help and potentially, keeping items well ordered), while for individuals with Williams syndrome, emotional reactions disrupt their problem- solving skills. This paper highlights the importance of identifying syndrome-specific problem-solving strengths and difficulties to improve effective functioning in everyday life

Projected future changes in tropical cyclones using the CMIP6 HighResMIP multimodel ensemble

Future changes in tropical cyclone properties are an important component of climate change impacts and risk for many tropical and midlatitude countries. In this study we assess the performance of a multimodel ensemble of climate models, at resolutions ranging from 250 to 25 km. We use a common experimental design including both atmosphere‐only and coupled simulations run over the period 1950–2050, with two tracking algorithms applied uniformly across the models. There are overall improvements in tropical cyclone frequency, spatial distribution, and intensity in models at 25 km resolution, with several of them able to represent very intense storms. Projected tropical cyclone activity by 2050 generally declines in the South Indian Ocean, while changes in other ocean basins are more uncertain and sensitive to both tracking algorithm and imposed forcings. Coupled models with smaller biases suggest a slight increase in average TC 10 m wind speeds by 2050

Implications of climate change for agricultural productivity in the early twenty-first century

This paper reviews recent literature concerning a wide range of processes through which climate change could potentially impact global-scale agricultural productivity, and presents projections of changes in relevant meteorological, hydrological and plant physiological quantities from a climate model ensemble to illustrate key areas of uncertainty. Few global-scale assessments have been carried out, and these are limited in their ability to capture the uncertainty in climate projections, and omit potentially important aspects such as extreme events and changes in pests and diseases. There is a lack of clarity on how climate change impacts on drought are best quantified from an agricultural perspective, with different metrics giving very different impressions of future risk. The dependence of some regional agriculture on remote rainfall, snowmelt and glaciers adds to the complexity. Indirect impacts via sea-level rise, storms and diseases have not been quantified. Perhaps most seriously, there is high uncertainty in the extent to which the direct effects of CO2 rise on plant physiology will interact with climate change in affecting productivity. At present, the aggregate impacts of climate change on global-scale agricultural productivity cannot be reliably quantified

Common data elements for clinical research in mitochondrial disease: a National Institute for Neurological Disorders and Stroke project

Objectives The common data elements (CDE) project was developed by the National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke (NINDS) to provide clinical researchers with tools to improve data quality and allow for harmonization of data collected in different research studies. CDEs have been created for several neurological diseases; the aim of this project was to develop CDEs specifically curated for mitochondrial disease (Mito) to enhance clinical research. Methods Nine working groups (WGs), composed of international mitochondrial disease experts, provided recommendations for Mito clinical research. They initially reviewed existing NINDS CDEs and instruments, and developed new data elements or instruments when needed. Recommendations were organized, internally reviewed by the Mito WGs, and posted online for external public comment for a period of eight weeks. The final version was again reviewed by all WGs and the NINDS CDE team prior to posting for public use

Reflections on the 'History and Historians' of the black woman's role in the community of slaves: enslaved women and intimate partner sexual violence

Taking as points of inspiration Peter Parish’s 1989 book, Slavery: History and Historians, and Angela Davis’s seminal 1971 article, “Reflections on the black woman’s role in the community of slaves,” this probes both historiographically and methodologically some of the challenges faced by historians writing about the lives of enslaved women through a case study of intimate partner violence among enslaved people in the antebellum South. Because rape and sexual assault have been defined in the past as non-consensual sexual acts supported by surviving legal evidence (generally testimony from court trials), it is hard for historians to research rape and sexual violence under slavery (especially marital rape) as there was no legal standing for the rape of enslaved women or the rape of any woman within marriage. This article suggests enslaved women recognized that black men could both be perpetrators of sexual violence and simultaneously be victims of the system of slavery. It also argues women stoically tolerated being forced into intimate relationships, sometimes even staying with “husbands” imposed upon them after emancipation