Cutaneous Leishmaniasis and Sand Fly Fluctuations Are Associated with El Nino in Panama

BackgroundCutaneous Leishmaniasis (CL) is a neglected tropical vector-borne disease. Sand fly vectors (SF) and Leishmania spp parasites are sensitive to changes in weather conditions, rendering disease transmission susceptible to changes in local and global scale climatic patterns. Nevertheless, it is unclear how SF abundance is impacted by El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and how these changes might relate to changes in CL transmission.Methodology and FindingsWe studied association patterns between monthly time series, from January 2000 to December 2010, of: CL cases, rainfall and temperature from Panama, and an ENSO index. We employed autoregressive models and cross wavelet coherence, to quantify the seasonal and interannual impact of local climate and ENSO on CL dynamics. We employed Poisson Rate Generalized Linear Mixed Models to study SF abundance patterns across ENSO phases, seasons and eco-epidemiological settings, employing records from 640 night-trap sampling collections spanning 2000?2011. We found that ENSO, rainfall and temperature were associated with CL cycles at interannual scales, while seasonal patterns were mainly associated with rainfall and temperature. Sand fly (SF) vector abundance, on average, decreased during the hot and cold ENSO phases, when compared with the normal ENSO phase, yet variability in vector abundance was largest during the cold ENSO phase. Our results showed a three month lagged association between SF vector abundance and CL cases.ConclusionAssociation patterns of CL with ENSO and local climatic factors in Panama indicate that interannual CL cycles might be driven by ENSO, while the CL seasonality was mainly associated with temperature and rainfall variability. CL cases and SF abundance were associated in a fashion suggesting that sudden extraordinary changes in vector abundance might increase the potential for CL epidemic outbreaks, given that CL epidemics occur during the cold ENSO phase, a time when SF abundance shows its highest fluctuations

Epidemiological and clinical changes in American tegumentary leishmaniasis in an area of Leishmania (Viannia) braziliensis transmission over a 20-year period

The Health Post of Corte de Pedra is located in a region endemic for American tegumentary leishmaniasis (ATL) in the Brazilian state of Bahia, and it treats 500-1,300 patients annually. To describe temporal changes in the epidemiology of ATL, we reviewed a random sample of 10% of patient charts (N = 1,209) from 1988 to 2008. There was a twofold increase in the number of cases over the 20-year period, with fluctuations in 10-year cycles. Patients were most frequently male, between the ages of 10 and 30 years, and engaged in agricultural labor; 4.3% of patients had mucosal disease, and 2.4% of patients had disseminated disease. Over the study period, the number of disseminated cases increased threefold, the proportion of cases in younger patients and agricultural workers decreased, and the proportion of patients residing in coastal areas increased. ATL is on the rise in Bahia, with a 10-year periodicity and evolving changes in epidemiology and manifestations of disease