A REVIEW OF PROBABILISTIC GRAPH MODELS FOR FEATURE SELECTION WITH APPLICATIONS IN ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL TIME SERIES FORECASTING

In every field of life, people are interested to be able to forecast future.  A number of techniques are available to predict and forecasting upto a certain level of accuracy. Many techniques involve statistical tools and techniques for forecasting, modeling and control. Use of statistical techniques is growing with time and new techniques are being developed very rapidly. Especially in the field of economics and finance, the estimation and forecasting of economic and financial indicators play a vital role in decision making. Many models are developed in the last 2 decades to get better accuracy and efficiency in time series analysis and still there is a scope of learning and getting betterment in this field is available. In this research we have reviewed probability graphs, directed acyclic graphs, Bayesian networks, feature selection algorithms and Markov blankets for time series forecasting on the economic and financial problems (like stock exchange forecasting, multi-objective business risk analysis, consumers’ analysis, portfolio optimization, credit scoring etc). This is a new dimension for adaptive modeling techniques in economics and finance modeling

A Quantum based Evolutionary Algorithm for Stock Index and Bitcoin Price Forecasting

Quantum computing has emerged as a new dimension with various applications in different fields like robotic, cryptography, uncertainty modeling etc. On the other hand, nature inspired techniques are playing vital role in solving complex problems through evolutionary approach. While evolutionary approaches are good to solve stochastic problems in unbounded search space, predicting uncertain and ambiguous problems in real life is of immense importance. With improved forecasting accuracy many unforeseen events can be managed well. In this paper a novel algorithm for Fuzzy Time Series (FTS) prediction by using Quantum concepts is proposed in this paper. Quantum Evolutionary Algorithm (QEA) is used along with fuzzy logic for prediction of time series data. QEA is applied on interval lengths for finding out optimized lengths of intervals producing best forecasting accuracy. The algorithm is applied for forecasting Taiwan Futures Exchange (TIAFEX) index as well as for Bitcoin crypto currency time series data as a new approach. Model results were compared with many preceding algorithms

Effective fecal microbiota transplantation for recurrent Clostridioides difficile infection in humans is associated with increased signalling in bile acid-farnesoid X receptor-fibroblast growth factor pathway

The mechanisms of efficacy for fecal microbiota# transplantation (FMT) in treating recurrent Clostridioides difficile infection (rCDI) remain poorly defined, with restored gut microbiota-bile acid interactions representing one possible explanation. Furthermore, the potential implications for host physiology of these FMT-related changes in gut bile acid metabolism are also not well explored. In this study, we investigated the impact of FMT for rCDI upon signalling through the farnesoid X receptor (FXR)-fibroblast growth factor (FGF) pathway. Herein, we identify that in addition to restoration of gut microbiota and bile acid profiles, FMT for rCDI is accompanied by a significant, sustained increase in circulating levels of FGF19 and reduction in FGF21. These FGF changes were associated with weight gain post-FMT, to a level not exceeding the pre-rCDI baseline. Collectively, these data support the hypothesis that the restoration of gut microbial communities by FMT for rCDI is associated with an upregulated FXR-FGF pathway, and highlight the potential systemic effect of FMT

Developing an Automated Assessment of In-session Patient Activation for Psychological Therapy: Codevelopment Approach

Background: Patient activation is defined as a patient’s confidence and perceived ability to manage their own health. Patient activation has been a consistent predictor of long-term health and care costs, particularly for people with multiple long-term health conditions. However, there is currently no means of measuring patient activation from what is said in health care consultations. This may be particularly important for psychological therapy because most current methods for evaluating therapy content cannot be used routinely due to time and cost restraints. Natural language processing (NLP) has been used increasingly to classify and evaluate the contents of psychological therapy. This aims to make the routine, systematic evaluation of psychological therapy contents more accessible in terms of time and cost restraints. However, comparatively little attention has been paid to algorithmic trust and interpretability, with few studies in the field involving end users or stakeholders in algorithm development. Objective: This study applied a responsible design to use NLP in the development of an artificial intelligence model to automate the ratings assigned by a psychological therapy process measure: the consultation interactions coding scheme (CICS). The CICS assesses the level of patient activation observable from turn-by-turn psychological therapy interactions. Methods: With consent, 128 sessions of remotely delivered cognitive behavioral therapy from 53 participants experiencing multiple physical and mental health problems were anonymously transcribed and rated by trained human CICS coders. Using participatory methodology, a multidisciplinary team proposed candidate language features that they thought would discriminate between high and low patient activation. The team included service-user researchers, psychological therapists, applied linguists, digital research experts, artificial intelligence ethics researchers, and NLP researchers. Identified language features were extracted from the transcripts alongside demographic features, and machine learning was applied using k-nearest neighbors and bagged trees algorithms to assess whether in-session patient activation and interaction types could be accurately classified. Results: The k-nearest neighbors classifier obtained 73% accuracy (82% precision and 80% recall) in a test data set. The bagged trees classifier obtained 81% accuracy for test data (87% precision and 75% recall) in differentiating between interactions rated high in patient activation and those rated low or neutral. Conclusions: Coproduced language features identified through a multidisciplinary collaboration can be used to discriminate among psychological therapy session contents based on patient activation among patients experiencing multiple long-term physical and mental health conditions

Involving psychological therapy stakeholders in responsible research to develop an automated feedback tool: Learnings from the ExTRAPPOLATE project

Understanding stakeholders’ views on novel autonomous systems in healthcare is essential to ensure these are not abandoned after substantial investment has been made. The ExTRAPPOLATE project applied the principles of Responsible Research and Innovation (RRI) in the development of an automated feedback system for psychological therapists, ‘AutoCICS’. A Patient and Practitioner Reference Group (PPRG) was convened over three online workshops to inform the system's development. Iterative workshops allowed proposed changes to the system (based on stakeholder comments) to be scrutinized. The PPRG reference group provided valuable insights, differentiated by role, including concerns and suggestions related to the applicability and acceptability of the system to different patients, as well as ethical considerations. The RRI approach enabled the anticipation of barriers to use, reflection on stakeholders’ views, effective engagement with stakeholders, and action to revise the design and proposed use of the system prior to testing in future planned feasibility and effectiveness studies. Many best practices and learnings can be taken from the application of RRI in the development of the AutoCICS system